Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
You didn’t answer my question. You complained that Cruz was following “GOPe rules” in trying to get his supporters selected as delegates. I asked:
Other than the party in the various states, who do you think should be making the rules about how to select delegates to the national convention?
I am talking about how to select the actual human beings who serve in the role as delegate.
Ok, you’re saying Kasich is not mathematically eliminated? Or Rubio? Carson? Bush? Paul? Fiorina? Huckabee?
Slimy hypocrite that he is.
You’re just not enough of a TRUE conservative to understand the Cruz Fu Mind Trick that Cruz did on them.
Wendle, you must have just fallen off the back of a Turnip truck.
Who gives a good shit about Trump’s voters? I know I don’t. I care about the Constitution and the state of the Nation.
Primaries are bullshit anyway. They are open, they are closed. They are sometines not even held. Their purpose is only to advise the delegates to the convention. THEY are the ones to choose the party’s nominee, not some random crossover Democrats.
In the end, we Republicans want someone who can win, and someone who shares our values. Trump fails BOTH tests. That’s why his voters are not high on my want to be friends with list.
Lawyers cheat and steal every day.
Cruz is a lawyer. Need more be said?
But 99 other Senators stood QUIET, which 2 were yours. Texas is very proud of at least 1 of their senators and he's our Freshman.
Cruz was the most skeptical member of the senate, who resisted the establishment the most.
Will concede Cruz got tripped up on the corker amendment.
CRuz also got stronger TPP and immigration because of Trump.
Which is why I want a Trump/Cruz ticket.
Trashing CArson,Walker,Cruz,Rubio (sad!) sAntorum and even Perry just divides our movement and make it easier for the establishment to run us over.
A sad state of affairs...we will pay dearly.
It's so gratifying to see a Cruz supporter show his true colors. Nice. At least now we know why you support a snake like Cruz. Birds of a feather and all that.
Please link me to where I said Cruz was trying to get his supporters selected as delegates.
Did Romney have difficulty winning a majority of delegates? I don’t remember such.
It’s not “the Establishment” that is voting for Cruz and Kasich when Trump has such a lead already. It is something palpable. People don’t want him.
He’s leading a hostile takeover. He’s leading a faction that wants to “eviscerate” the party. You can’t compare the reaction to him to the reaction to any conventional politician.
He wanted to be the outsider. When you go after the king, make sure you get the kill. If he doesn’t win a majority of delegates through the primaries, he will have faiiled in his takeover attempt.
Maybe a more palatable person would have succeeded. It’s hard to think of a person less suited then him.
not if Trump and cruz control the rules committee of 112 delegates.
I’d go for a Trump/Cruz ticket even though I’ve come to loathe Cruz over the course of this campaign. Given some time, he might be able to erase the negative impression he’s made on me. Time spent walking the walk would go a long way with me.
Pertinent article at Newsmax: Priebus was asked today about a contested convention, specifically rule 40: “It’s not like the Rules Committee is going to come together and say, now it’s no states,’ said Priebus. ‘They take all of the recommendations to the convention and the majority of delegates accept it.’ Meanwhile, under the current rules, Cruz would need to win four more states to enter his name as a nominee.’He might have to have more than that, but he has to have a majority of eight states, delegates, on the nomination, said Priebus.’”
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reince-priebus-rules-committee-changes/2016/04/07/id/722794/
I thought Cruz had 8 already, but I haven’t been counting. I guess according to party rules he only has 4 and will need 4 more.
I don’t want Cruz’s grubby little fingers anywhere near the convention apparatus.
Then you are not paying attention to your interests.
Cruz and trump should run the rules committee EVEN IF THEY HATE eACH OTEHRS guts.
they can completely block out the establishment.
not that it matters, but Trump is complimenting Cruz by attacking him. I have live in the UES for 20 years, so I understand.
He needs a majority of delegates (not votes and not a plurality of delegates) from eight states. 8 is doable for him. At last count he had 4, but with some of the back room deals in some of these states, it’s probably more already.
” If Trump loses delegates after the first vote that is his own fault.”
You say if he loses them AFTER.
Cruz is contacting delegates now and in essence buying them for further rounds of voting.
That’s different then if they showed up, no one gets enough in first round so discussions were had and delegates changed mind AFTER the first vote.
ethically and morally - I don’t agree with this lining delegates up ahead for 2nd etc rounds - it spreads an ugly presence over the whole convention and first vote. like fixing a race as opposed to showing up and seeing what happens on race day - which is months from now and so much can happen between now and then.
Honestly I think delegates should vote their own mind when released. If we all answer to God for everything - they have to answer for why they allowed themselves to be “bought” and not using their God given brain to vote their own mind without being swayed with this or that perk.
No. Cruz only needs to hold Trump under 1237 to go to a second ballot.
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