Posted on 08/24/2016 7:01:24 AM PDT by IVAXMAN
Trump is down now -2.1%.
They show a drop from 14% to 4.6% in black support for Trump, how on earth could black support go down almost 10% in one day when Trump has been reaching out to Black america?
Another thing is they show that Male voter support for Hillary went up almost 4%.
These shifts just seem too dramatic. Hopefully they are an anomaly in the poll data.
Those radical changes do not appear logical - i.e. someone ordered them to “cook the books”.
They likely got their polling list for blacks from Rev. Jackson and Al Sharpton....maybe BLM as well. /s
43.2% Trump
45.3% Hillary
supposedly they poll the same people over a 7 day period.
In that case, I don’t believe the poll is correct. I don’t see how Trump could plummet 10 points in one day with the AA voters....I could actually believe the opposite.
Also how does black support go DOWN 10% when you are only polling 1/7 of the polling group each day? That would seem HIGHLY unlikely.
In one day’s time it shows male support for Hillary up 4% and Trump’s support from Blacks went from 14% down to 4%. I don’t care who’s doing the polling. This is absolute crap.
Your question is your answer. His support in the black community did not go down 10 points in one day. Either his support was never that high, or it was never this low.
Polls now are stupid. 10 point swings in a day or so would make me not trust this polling system very much.
Give it some time, and wait until the debates.
Its all within the margin of error.
Trump -2 in a national poll is not at all a bad number.
[Also how does black support go DOWN 10%]
DONALD TRUMP is not wooing in the 10% of blacks who are in bondage to the DEMOCRAT PARTY. He is focused on the 90% who desire a future and a hope for themselves and their children.
DONALD TRUMP/MIKE PENCE 2016
The average went up 10% exactly 7 days ago. The pattern of 4% to poll start, 14% for 7 days, then back to 4%, is consistent with ONE sample of maybe 50% AA support. As long as that sample is in the average mix (7 days) the average is 14%. Then a week after that sample is introduced to the mix, it is dropped from the mix.
Trump has all the good ammunition; Hillary has only personal pique against what are relatively insignificant factors. We are in a position of real strength.
I crunched some numbers.
They poll about 350 blacks per week, 50 per night. In order to go down 10% of the total blacks would mean 35 people had to change their mind out of 350. It is not likely that there were 35 out of the 50 last night that were already supporting Trump and changed their mind !!!! No way !!!
This tells me this is almost certainly been manipulated in some way by the pollster.
They are playing with the demographics
The only honest poll is the one you conduct yourself.
The answer is that this new methodology is likely not valid. Simply, either the new day’s sample differs from the day that drops off in their rolling 7 day method - or - the sample size of blacks is small enough that it brings with it a large MOE.
In general, folks who have never taken a statistics course should refrain from making pronouncements on polls. If you don’t know how to calculate MOE, you’re like a dog with a can opener. You recognize the tool, but there’s zero chance of operating it successfully.
Trump hired Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway last Wednesday, gave an excellent speech on Thursday and ran his first TV ad on Friday. (Really, two whole weeks before he needed to begin taking this seriously.)
I plan to give it at least until the first or second episode of the new season of South Park before buying that cabin in the hills.
Whoa wait a minute!!! So now the poll trumpeted by many here as valid and showing the real trends is now defunct and invalid?
Smack my GD head! Polls showing out candidate in lead good....polls showing our candidate not in lead (which is vast majority) not good, invalid, blah blah blah....
It’s amazing the knots of pretzel tying taking place to invalidate even polls showing what the trend has been showing for months!
In general, folks who have never taken a statistics course should refrain from making pronouncements on polls. If you don’t know how to calculate MOE, you’re like a dog with a can opener. You recognize the tool, but there’s zero chance of operating it successfully.
That is a rather presumptuous statement. I have taken a Senior level Statistical Analysis course and have a minor in math.
As a fellow Freeper your comment is not constructive.
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