Posted on 09/13/2016 12:19:30 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
Post-Hillary's stumble yesterday Trump goes from -0.3% to +3.0%.
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7) Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)
Trump's net gains is 3.3% in one day.
Dramatic marginal shifts in demographics:
A/A: HC (-15.8) from +83.8 to +68.0
Males: DT+4.1 (From +10.0 to + 14.1)
Females: HC (-2.3) from +10.0 to +7.7
18-34: DT+9.2 (from HC+ 5.3 to DT+ 3.9)
>$75K/yr.: DT+6.6 (from tie to DT+ 6.6)
College degree: HC (-3.6) from +13.9 to +10.3
Trump gained 8.2% support from A/A in one day of polling (4.7 to 12.9).
Religious themes may bid fair to come into play here, as that of the beast with the mortally wounded head which miraculously came back, in a misleading mimicry of Christ.
I could posit that when a figure shows up in the bible, the literal account there might not be the only time in history that it puts in a cameo. Deathless beings are behind the chaos of hell, and they are what they are forever from the moment they fell, living out their various evil characters.
Anyhow, if Hillary suddenly seems to come back preternaturally strong... I wouldn’t be surprised. She, or the spirits behind her, would be living out that figure, which plays on man’s intuition that a Savior is needed, but offers the wrong thing out of darkness rather than out of wisdom.
Election Projection has the race 294 to 244 http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php
You say: “This fight is nowhere near decided.”
The media tells us one thing.
Our eyes another. Disheartening to to see how many people still swallow - and repeat - the lies.
http://www.redstate.com/kylefoley/2016/09/06/msnbc-polls/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlTPDXUtEus";
Pat Caddell, the DEMOCRAT pollster, is disgusted with the democrats/media outright lying about the polls - fast forward to mm 25:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4grXyM_IUk
How do they place a different name on the ballot unless they have a dead body?
For the first time a Clinton might need to watch their own back.
Many Democrats won’t.
the dirty tricks haven’t started yet.. we should see something start this weeks..
Gloomy? I’m not being gloomy, I’m being realistic, optimistic and offering an opinion that this is a critical moment and Trump ought to press the offense. This is definitely not the time to just sit back and let events play out. If you say this thing is over, I say you’re being over confident. He may be competitive in blue states but his path to 270 electoral votes requires winning those blue states and he’s not there yet- not yet.
I won’t believe anything until November 8th has come and gone. Until that time, we should not assume anything, we should just continue to fight like hell.
I’m kinda like you, a pragmatist. The evil we face needs a stake driven through its heart. Fight like you are losing until your adversary is dead.
Looks like statistical noise to me. That 10 point jump in African American as happened a few weeks ago, reappeared. This is one “flyer” sample, skewing the African American fraction from 4% to something greater than 10%. This sample will be in the pool for a week, then drop off.
Look at 270 to win. Historically PA has been a big tease about going GOP, only to have Phillidelphia perpetually pull through for the Dems. VA we have to assume will stay with the Dems based on all the influence of NoVa.
Even if we then grant Trump Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina, he's still down 11 Electoral Votes from a winning Clinton hand.
We're going to have to work hard to flip New Hampshire (4 EVs), and Nevada (6 EVs)... to make it a tie!
Thank God the bitch did her faceplant into the van on Sunday - that may very well save the nation, but it still isn't anywhere close to a done deal.
We need to harp on something substantive to give the trend permanence. As they say in Yiddish: Nisht yedden tag is Purim (Not every day is Purim), or in other words, fortune can scowl as easily as smile on anyone, so one needs to plan and construct and end-game strategy. Trump’s been stumping without end on his program and Hillary’s shortcomings (evil, ambassador-abandoning, bribe-taking, coal-miners-laying-off, job-exporting, e-mail-hard-driving, Iraq-war-supporting [so was I, and still am] beotch, etc.), and (figuratively only, Mr. Federale) go for the (metaphoric only) jugular. Her health is not it (FDR, JFK comparison) and neither are any of the above. So what evil trait does she have that just plain will drive a (figuratively only, metaphoric only) stake through her dark heart? So much to choose from, so what have we all missed?
CT is only leaning Dem now.... I Pray our little state is part of a devastating blow to the Clinton MACHINE
Yeah, I was just looking through the sub groups too. The AA jump is almost certainly an anomaly. However, there was upward movement across the board. What may be different this time overall is the events of the weekend coincide with Trumps large one day jump in support. We’ll see for sure over the next two days whether this was just a weird one day sample, or if there has been a sea change.
This is true but we're looking at an election where the Donald may cut deeper into the black vote than is typical for a Republican. He may well already have a good chunk of blue-collar support, and enthusiasm for Hillary seems tepid.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have to be way lopsided to counteract the other counties--whittle those down and you have a race.
Connecticut actually gives me an idea. One point that hasn’t been raised yet: Per deTocqueville, American politics abhor an artistocracy. There have been a few attempts to establish one; the Adamses, Roosevelts, Kennedies, Bushes, etc., but it makes the body politic queasy as a general proposition, and the sentiment originates with the Pilgrims and New Englanders in general. Bill himself was a handful, partly because of him, partly because of Hill. There must not be a Clinton dynasty. There must not be an American aristocracy, least of all one as screwy as the Clintons.
Just an aside:
The closest states lost by the GOP in 2012 were
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
with a total of 69 EVs (enough to flip the election).
The next closest were
Pennsylvania
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
Wisconsin.
Concede VA, CO, and PA, and the GOP needs to almost run the table on the rest and not lose NC. Tall order.
Dornsife gives a moving average in their poll, so this means that Trump’s sudden 3 point rise on 9/12 reflects a huge surge on 9/11.
Look for the gap to widen today as the weighted average is recalculated to include more of the 9/11 shift to Trump.
It’s the first one listed.
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