Posted on 11/04/2016 4:48:31 PM PDT by mandaladon
The last week has been a tough one for Hillary Clinton. Last Friday's announcement by FBI Director James Comey that emails considered “pertinent” to the investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server had been discovered accelerated a bump in Donald Trump's poll numbers that had begun before that news hit.
National polling was the first to tighten — the WaPo-ABC Tracking Poll showed the Democratic presidential candidate up three points on Friday — but swing-state polling has followed suit. CNN, as of Friday morning, even had Clinton below 270 electoral votes for the first time in a long time.
We at The Fix aren't there just yet. But we are making three changes in our electoral-map ratings — all of which favor Trump.
The biggest move is Ohio — from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” The Buckeye State, which went for Barack Obama in each of his two races, has long been one of the friendlier swing states for Trump, thanks in large part to its older and whiter (as compared with the country as a whole) population. The last two polls in the state have shown Trump up five points, and the RealClearPolitics polling average gives the Republican nominee a 3.3-point edge. That fits more with our “lean” category than our “toss-up” one. Clinton isn't giving up on the state, however — she'll be in Cleveland on Sunday.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
“MAYBE they’re reporting all this “Good News For Trump” to give the voters a sense that they don’t have to go to vote for Trump.
He’s already got it made.”
Political Science type tell you that doesn’t work. In fact the opposite happens. If a candidate is seen as having momentum, to be riding a wave, his/her voters are more eager to vote and so over confidence actually pushes the totals higher.
So no, if they were trying to dissuade Trump voters they’d report (lie) about PIAPS having momentum and keep ratcheting up the +D number in the polls they publish. This is the left trying to be objective and failing. They’re scared and they realize they are about to become ignored if they don’t make a cursory effort to appear balanced.
300-320
Too funny. On a day in which CNN shifts its electoral map to say Cankles ISN’T winning; on a day in which not one, but TWO polls show PA tied; on a day in which MI is tied; on a day in which NH has its third consecutive poll showing Trump ahead; and on a day in which Rs in CO go ahead for the first time in early voting, you say Trump’s “momentum is slowing.”
Just wow.
“I read somewhere that Delaware is a statistical tie. Vermont has Sanders supporters who despise Canklepotomus, but I don’t see it moving.”
If Delaware is a tie then so is New Jersey.
If New Jersey goes Trump and having lived there I can say there are a lot of disgruntled blue color types and it wouldn’t surprise me if they liked Trump then all of New England might be fun to watch.
I wonder about a place Massachusetts which from time to time elects moderate to liberal republicans to the place from turning into California with a bad accent.
Lastly if New Jersey is even remotely in play then so is NY state. I don’t know if Trump can overcome Manhattan but I’ve been through upstate and my God, what a bunch of red-necks. I thought I was in Alabama.
“elects moderate to liberal republicans to the place from turning into California with a bad accent.”
Bad accent?
Wouldn’t distinctive accent be a little more diplomatic.? :-)
.
I beg to differ on DE. Wilmington libs have a chokehold on that state.
And Fox still thinks she’s a shoe-in. Weird times.
“Wouldn’t distinctive accent be a little more diplomatic.? :-)”
Yeah, it would I apologize. Distinctive accent would be better. Especially since I don’t like a California accent pleasant either.
The point however is valid. I don’t think Massachusetts is as deep blue as it sometimes appears. If Delaware is tied then no state in New England is safe for the PIAPS
I can only get my confidence to 294. I Probably will firm up by Sunday night and say this is my bet, but right now my memories of four years ago are too strong.
Yes. Take a look at the momentum chart. It’s slowing.
The press is trying the “Hillary is Winning!” mantra again as hey did a few weeks ago. That didn’t go well for her the first time.
Something tells me cankles is demanding to hear she shot 11 holes-in-one golf game like the NORK dork did.
She is a petty tyrant and her sycophants respond.
The electorate has changed so much in the last three cycles.
Obama got blacks voting and energized — which is not all bad as newer voters aren’t locked into one party in their thinking we are now seeing.
Many illegals are voting.
The last three cycles we see an actual comfort and pride in individual fraud on a loosely organized platform by machine politics.
Trump’s team is suing down in Broward County FL! Finally we have a FIGHTER against fraud!!!!!
..I’m thinking anywhere from 300 to 350— things are looking that good...
ABC/WaPo tripling down with a 3 pt lead for Hillary. I so much want for them to be wrong, but it is uncertain how much the 24/7 push for Hillary will play with the non-committed voters.
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