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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
Stay safe!
Prayers up!
Thanks for the report.
CNN'S ANDERSON COOPER, another story. LOL
Thank you for the thread.
re: “I’m not a geek, and I appreciate that with so many millions in harm’s way a decision has to be made early....but after Dorian is history, do we need to figure out if the reason/s we can’t get a better handle on these buggers is because we need way more and better data, better models, less politics...some or all of the above.”
IT WOULD HELP THE ‘MODELS’ if we had measured wind and air/water temperature data out over the Atlantic every 50 - 100 miles, and upwards of 5 to 10 thousand feet, but, we don’t ... so we make do with sparse data and a lot of ‘SWAG’ ..
Great. My niece just evacuated to Orlando from the east coast last night.
Dorian is SO strange... Is this the slowest moving hurricane you've ever seen??
Offshore? Imagine the media disappointment.
I would say this is just about a cat-5 now, some of the recent recon data support that, but apparently NHC not entirely convinced so staying at strong cat-4.
In reality, the chances are still somewhere between 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 that Florida would get sideswiped by a later turn, so don’t let down your guard yet.
This explains why our models are about as good as they are likely to get. If you still have questions I will try to answer them in a way you can understand.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Harvey was a stalled storm that dumped feet of rain on the Houston area with devastating flooding. There was a Florida storm in recent memory that stalled too. IIRC, Floyd stalled over NC in 1999. So much flooding, coffins popped out of the graves. Awful.
This hurricane makes me think of Fran in 1996. It unexpectedly stalled for 24 hours over the Gulf Stream. Instead of strengthening as expected, the wind field doubled in size.
Every hurricane is capable of surprises.
“The world shall wax old like a garment” Isaiah 52:6
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Thanks for sharing this thought. I had not remembered that portion of scripture and it certainly does make sense that our earth is weakening...sure is on the west coast here with some strange behavior with earthquakes.
Latest model runs are very bad for Florida and show landfall and stall-out over the peninsula.
Name the source ?
I see nothing regarding your dire comment .
Chaos theory is way above my intellectual pay grade so maybe I’m just being dim, but I have a hard time thinking that we can’t improve our forecasting. If the models aren’t the problem, maybe more data would help. And I’m pretty sure we can always collect more and better data.
We’re human. There’s always room for improvement in our endeavors :-)
Here are the 5 AM EDT Sunday, September 1 Key Messages for Hurricane #Dorian. Conditions will be deteriorating over the Abaco Islands during the next several hours and then Grand Bahama Island later today. For more information, visit https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB. https://t.co/Yg0DkLajh4
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