Posted on 07/23/2002 7:00:00 PM PDT by Lorenb420
An asteroid discovered just weeks ago has become the most threatening object yet detected in space.
A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth on 1 February 2019, although the uncertainties are large.
Astronomers have given the object a rating on the so-called Palermo technical scale of threat of 0.06, making NT7 the first object to be given a positive value.
From its brightness astronomers estimate it is about 2km wide, large enough to cause continent-wide devastation on Earth.
Although astronomers are saying the object definitely merits attention, they expect more observations to show it is not on an Earth-intersecting trajectory.
It was first seen on the night of 5 July, picked up by the Linear Observatory's automated sky survey programme in New Mexico, in the southern US.
Since then astronomers worldwide have been paying close attention to it, amassing almost 200 observations in a few weeks.
Dr Benny Peiser, of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK, told BBC News Online that "this asteroid has now become the most threatening object in the short history of asteroid detection".
NT7 circles the Sun every 837 days and travels in a tilted orbit from about the distance of Mars to just within the Earth's orbit.
Potential devastation
Detailed calculations of its orbit suggest many occasions when its projected path through space intersects the Earth's orbit.
Researchers estimate that on 1 February 2019 its impact velocity on the Earth would be 28km a second - enough to wipe out a continent and cause global climate changes.
However, Dr Peiser was keen to point out that future observations could change the situation.
He said: "This unique event should not diminish the fact that additional observations in coming weeks will almost certainly, we hope, eliminate the current threat."
Easily observable
According to astronomers NT7 will be easily observable for the next 18 months or so, meaning there is no risk of losing the object.
Observations made over that period - and the fact that NT7 is bright enough that it is bound to show up in old photographs - mean that astronomers will soon have a very precise orbit for the object.
Dr Donald Yeomans, of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, told BBC News Online: "The orbit of this object is rather highly inclined to the Earth's orbit so it has been missed because until recently observers were not looking for such objects in that region of space."
Regarding the possibility of an impact, Dr Yeomans said the uncertainties were large.
"The error in our knowledge of where NT7 will be on 1 February 2019 is large, several tens of millions of kms," he said.
Dr Yeomans told BBC News Online that the world would have to get used to finding more objects like NT7 that, on discovery, look threatening, but then become harmless.
"This is because the problem of Near Earth Objects is now being properly addressed," he said.
No, it would kick it into a different orbit. Unless that orbit intersects with the sun on the first pass, it will stay in that same orbit indefinitely. (Caveat: since it does make occasional passes very close to the Earth, it is possible that a slight change might put it on a course for a gravitational slingshot maneuver past the Earth, by which method it can be made to go just about anywhere. But this would require steering it exquisitely close to the Earth, taking us to the very edge of catastrophe, which is what we want to avoid.)
Why wouldn't a large explosion at an anlge not change its course and orbit?
Well, there's large and then there's large. What seems a large amount of energy to us is terribly small compared to the kinetic energy of this rock.
Easy to find web sites on how to build these "beasties"
That again! Take care of it, will you? I'll be busy until March of 2023.
Already working on it. I'm putting out calls to Hollywood starlets who are willing to descend with me into my luxurious bunker to wait it out.
A common misconception, but phasers will not destroy large asteroids. What you need to do is find the alien obelisk that contains the asteroid-repulsion beam...
The recoil from shooting Ted Kennedy into space would probably knock us into the sun.
The main drawback I see is similar to what you point out, though - the possibility that a Kennedy or Nadler might remain almost motionless, as the cannons shot off into deep space in the opposite direction...
Oh! We don't make Saturn Vs anymore? Never mind!
We're probably...
Hmmm, how many more might be wandering that section.
But in this case, I believe these close calls with asteroids warrant the U.S. government to find out where these asteroids are and research how to deflect them.
A few million dollars spent on asteroid detection and defense will pale in comparison to the trillions of dollars in damage that would result from the impact of an asteroid of this magnitude.
Or better yet, maybe Steven Speilberg can spend the money he made from Deep Impact to fund such programs.
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