Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Another pollster says Senate race still too close to call
The Daily Advertiser ^ | 11/28 | John Hill

Posted on 11/28/2002 11:11:39 AM PST by Jack Bauer

BATON ROUGE -- The boisterous U.S. Senate campaigns fall quiet today while the nation pauses for Thanksgiving, but it won't be completely without an event.

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu was scheduled to serve for a photo op during Orleans Sheriff Charles Foti's Thanksgiving dinner but planned to remain with family in New Orleans. Blocks away in the Uptown section of New Orleans, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell planned to cook for Thanksgiving with her family.

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

In another development, a third pollster said Louisiana's U.S. Senate race remains a showdown, too close to call.

New Orleans pollster Ed Renwick, who questioned

600 voters Nov. 20-23 of this past week for WWL-TV in New Orleans, called it "a very tight race."

When factored to reflect racial demographics of registered voters, Renwick found

45 percent favoring Landrieu, 31 percent for Terrell, 3 percent for neither, 14 percent saying they don't know and 8 percent refusing to say, even though they had a choice.

But when Renwick adjusted it to show blacks as 25 percent of those who actually vote -- a historically reliable percentage -- his poll showed Terrell ahead at 51 percent.

That reflects similar findings released Tuesday by Verne Kennedy of Marketing Research Institute in Pensacola, Fla., who put it at 46 percent for Terrell and 42 percent for Landrieu on the assumption that black voters would comprise 23 percent of those who vote Dec. 7.

"It is kind of the worst-case scenario for Landrieu," Renwick said. "We have an extremely close election. The turnout differential of only a few points of either race could change the outcome."

"All kinds of things could happen," Renwick said. "We don't have the president in there. I think that will give Suzie a little bump. I don't know whether it will last through the election."

Renwick did detect higher interest in the runoff than in the primary election among those polled. "I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't see 60 percent of the voters turnout," he said.

Breaux, one of those voters interested in Landrieu's re-election, also said his sense of the race is that it is very close. He conceded that black turnout is the major factor in the election's outcome.

"It is a Saturday election," he said. "That is better for our side."


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: brownroots; louisiana; polls; terrell

1 posted on 11/28/2002 11:11:39 AM PST by Jack Bauer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
Bump and a prayer for Terrell to win.
2 posted on 11/28/2002 11:34:10 AM PST by I_Love_My_Husband
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

According to the Washington Prowler, Landrieu actually commissioned a poll to determine if the positives of x42 campaigning for her in the black community outweighed the negatives he would have on her among white voters. I think we can take an educated guess what that poll said.

3 posted on 11/28/2002 11:50:38 AM PST by ABG(anybody but Gore)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
Bad news:

Forecast for New Orleans on Dec. 7 (Weather Channel 10 day forecast) Partly cloudy, no chance of rain, high 63 low 47.
4 posted on 11/28/2002 12:11:26 PM PST by PAR35
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
45 percent favoring Landrieu, 31 percent for Terrell, 3 percent for neither, 14 percent saying they don't know and 8 percent refusing to say, even though they had a choice.

But when Renwick adjusted it to show blacks as 25 percent of those who actually vote -- a historically reliable percentage -- his poll showed Terrell ahead at 51 percent.

This is very ambiguous. He reports Landrieu leading 45/31 - a huge gap of 14 points. But if adjusted to assume blacks making up 25% of the electorate, he says that Terrell is ahead at 51%.

But is that 51% a prediction of what she would actually get on election day? In other words, does it make assumptions as to how the 22% of voters who failed to express a preference would vote?

If so, Terrell's edge is slight. But if it's 51% with 22% undecided, then Terrell in fact would have a huge lead.

I actually went to the original article on the WWLTV web page, and things are not really clarified. Here is what it has to say:

"Renwick says that it is important for Landrieu to get out the black vote.

“If the black vote was somewhat below the white vote percentage wise, in other words if instead of 29 percent it (the black percentage of votes) was 25 percent, then Suzie Terrell would win with between 51 and 52 percent, so turnout is very critical,” emphasized Renwick."

My best guess is that the pollster is predicting that if blacks make up 25% of the electorate, Terrell will get 51% on Election Day.

Of course, Pres. Bush has not made his scheduled visit, and that could very easily be good for another few percentage points!

5 posted on 11/28/2002 12:13:45 PM PST by governsleastgovernsbest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student

Please vote in our instant FR poll.

I believe Bill Clinton's primary goal in flying to London is:

A. To spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student.
B. To spend time with a willing bimbo he met on a previous visit to Chelsea.

6 posted on 11/28/2002 12:19:02 PM PST by governsleastgovernsbest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: I_Love_My_Husband
We sure could use the extra cushion to keep Chafee and McCain in check.
7 posted on 11/28/2002 1:01:28 PM PST by RJayneJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
I saw the 51% to 34% poll, that did not make me happy, then I saw the 75% Bush approval/like the guy poll, that made me happy. All thats needed here, is Bush and Cheney to make a few stops between now and election day down in Louisiana along with Trent Lott talking about needing access to the white house for at least one senator from Louisiana. Then Terrel will win easy. I don't think she's gonna lose this one, unless the RNC really just doesn't care.
8 posted on 11/28/2002 1:46:18 PM PST by Sonny M
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

HAH!

In other words, the 'rats have realized that having Slick Willie on their side hurts, not helps, them.

The Hildbeast must be steaming. Her presidential chances are going down the drain.

9 posted on 11/28/2002 2:18:38 PM PST by Behind Liberal Lines
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: governsleastgovernsbest
Renwick says that it is important for Landrieu to get out the black vote. If the black vote was somewhat below the white vote percentage wise, in other words if instead of 29 percent it (the black percentage of votes) was 25 percent, then Suzie Terrell would win with between 51 and 52 percent, so turnout is very critical,” emphasized Renwick.

This race is tailor made for RAT vote fraud.

10 posted on 11/28/2002 2:44:01 PM PST by CedarDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: I_Love_My_Husband
Amen.
11 posted on 11/28/2002 3:17:46 PM PST by No dems 2002
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
This race is winnable by the good guys.

Let's get President Bush down there and do what he did for Chambliss and others.
12 posted on 11/28/2002 3:20:26 PM PST by No dems 2002
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer
Wow! What a day December 7th is going to be. Pearl Harbour day, Run-off election, my lil girls birthday (3 y/o)...I hope it turns out perfect when Terrell kicks Brown Roots butt.
13 posted on 11/28/2002 4:06:07 PM PST by chemicalman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: governsleastgovernsbest; TexKat; Grampa Dave; Sacajaweau; browardchad; Shermy; ~Kim4VRWC's~; ...
Blonde-haired squinty-eyed [chubby-cheeks] Landrieu is not one for blacks to relate to. [Mary's campaign still uses her 1996 photos frequently because she has aged so badly]

Many Louisianan voters can remember that in the 1996 election in which Landrieu was eventually declared the winner, the election was very close and had TONS of allegations of voter fraud. Louisianans are tired of the boss-Hog political curruption that was rife when Mary got elected. Poll watchers should be aware of this possibly happening again.

By contrast, Louisiana knows that Suzie Terrell will give Louisana a much stronger voice in the new Republican-led Senate.


Louisianans are also very well aware that we have massive TERRORISM occurring around the world, and in our country, and in particular, in Louisiana, and Republicans are our best defense against the 'Blame-American-First' crowd.


.
Louisiana was home to the West Nile Virus attack on HUMANS in the spring, months before the rest of the country!

By August 8th, the human outbreaks were STILL limited to the Louisiana area and neighboring states. Then it mushroomed due to migratory birds that had spread it in the spring from Louisiana, along the Mississippi and Ohio river migration paths throughout the midwest...

Suzie Turrell needs ALL LOUISIANA's support!
Contact her campaign to help out.

14 posted on 11/28/2002 5:08:54 PM PST by Future Useless Eater
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: I_Love_My_Husband
Bump and a message to FReepers in Louisiana, get out the conservative voters. We need this seat.
15 posted on 11/28/2002 5:47:54 PM PST by altair
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: altair
Suzie will be here tomorrow, Friday. Bush is scheduled to be in Louisiana week of Dec. 2nd. Suzie ,goes to NY for a rally with Pataki, Rudy and Sen. Werner. Rudy will come to Louisiana this next week. Preisdent George Herbert Walker Bush will be in the state this next week also. I have reported on other threads that here in Alexandria, La. (central La.) the RNC has set up a headquarters for Suzie. This young republilcan group is energetic and very enthusiastic about working for Suzie. One of them was sent to Minnesota to work for Coleman and one worked directly under Ralph Reed to pull off the Georgia victories for Chambliss and the new governor. I will be poll watching in one of our precints on election day and will be spending the rest of the next week, working the phone bank and walking the neighborhoods. Moon Griffon the state wide talk radio host says not to pay attention to the polls, but get out the vote. The absentee voting here is higher than it has ever been. LSU will probably be going to Atlanta for a play off on Dec. 7th and hunting season starts that day, hope these are all republicans who are voting absentee.
16 posted on 11/28/2002 6:36:02 PM PST by peekaboo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: governsleastgovernsbest
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student

It is strange. I read about x42 going over to London to visit Chelsea all the time. I don't think I've EVER read that #97 has gone to see her. What's up with that?

17 posted on 11/28/2002 7:44:00 PM PST by SuziQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: FL_engineer
Bump!
18 posted on 11/28/2002 10:05:44 PM PST by Alamo-Girl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: peekaboo
I will be poll watching in one of our precints on election day

Excellent. The more honest people watching, the better.

19 posted on 11/28/2002 10:07:15 PM PST by altair
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: altair
Something tells me that Landrieu is not too happy that the date of the runoff is Pearl Harbor day (December 7th). During that rememberence, it will be more difficult pulling the lever against the President who is protecting us against the perpetrators of another sneak attack.
20 posted on 11/28/2002 10:29:50 PM PST by winner3000
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: winner3000
I hadn't thought of that, but you're probably right. That kind of stuff works too. The Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi died in office a few years ago and when they had the replacement election, they scheduled it on the anniversary of his birthday. It worked, not only did his party gain seats (they had been steadily losing seats in recent previous elections) but his daughter won a seat as well.
21 posted on 11/28/2002 11:55:37 PM PST by altair
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: FL_engineer
Boy, Illinois sure looks suspicious in your West Nile cases map.
22 posted on 11/29/2002 12:00:48 AM PST by patriciaruth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: governsleastgovernsbest
C. After arriving in London, allegedly to visit Chelsea, X42 travelled to France after hearing the news that they've developed a Super-Viagra that lasts all weekend. He went to order a year's supply, explaining it was for the Secret Service. While in Paris, he also shared intelligence briefings with members of Al Qaeda and the Iraqi government because he knows how important they are to getting his wife elected in 2004.
23 posted on 11/29/2002 12:06:19 AM PST by Tall_Texan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: altair
Are you suggesting that there my be voter fraud in La.? That is very hard to believe. I mean, how could you tell?
24 posted on 11/29/2002 2:02:26 AM PST by bybybill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ABG(anybody but Gore)
So Bubba is going to England and staying away from New Orleans. I`d pay a nickel, no, make that a buck, to have heard the conversation where Bubba was told to stay away. Wonder who told him?
25 posted on 11/29/2002 2:06:05 AM PST by bybybill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: FL_engineer
Impressive, sobering and enlightening set of charts on the spread of WNV...

Go Terrell!

26 posted on 11/29/2002 3:30:42 AM PST by chilepepper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: ABG(anybody but Gore)
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student,

Whose airplane is he doing all this flying in? Are the taxpayers still paying for that bastard to fly all around? I have a hard time picturing him and all his SS agents going through airport security,or even associating with the common "tourist class".

27 posted on 11/29/2002 3:34:55 AM PST by sneakypete
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: governsleastgovernsbest
While both your answers are right,the most correct answer is "To avoid having to spend any time with Bubbette!". Notice how he's traveling alone?
28 posted on 11/29/2002 3:37:50 AM PST by sneakypete
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SuziQ
I don't think I've EVER read that #97 has gone to see her. What's up with that?

97 ain't the one sleeping with her.

29 posted on 11/29/2002 3:41:29 AM PST by sneakypete
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Jack Bauer; I_Love_My_Husband; ABG(anybody but Gore); PAR35; governsleastgovernsbest; RJayneJ; ...
In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

Yet more proof Juan Williams is an idiot. I just heard him subbing on the Beltway Boys saying that Clintoon would be at today's game, which Southern won 48-24.

30 posted on 11/30/2002 3:22:59 PM PST by GraniteStateConservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FL_engineer
Louisiana was home to the West Nile Virus attack on HUMANS in early April, four months before the rest of the country!

By August 8th, the human outbreaks were STILL limited to the Louisiana area and neighboring states. Then it mushroomed due to migratory birds that had spread it in the spring from Louisiana, along the Mississippi and Ohio river migration paths throughout the midwest...     [CDC numbers]

Louisianans become convinced this could only have been a deliberate terrorist attack.


31 posted on 11/30/2002 3:52:38 PM PST by Future Useless Eater
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson