Posted on 01/02/2003 7:07:27 PM PST by shrinkermd
Published in 2000 this book has an afterword about the 2000 election. The authors are clearly partisan Democrats; however, the contents and the conclusions are of great interest to anyone who has thought out political views. The author's focus is on the "white working class" which they define as any white person without a college degree. Since over three-fourths of Americans do not have a college degree and three-fourths of the population is still white, the number of potential white working class voters is 55% of those casting votes. Teixeira and Rogers believe this class of voters is the "forgotten majority" and their increasing tendency to vote Republican has dimmed the Democrat chances to control the House and Senate.
The authors document background statistics with appropriate citations for their conclusions. The authors believe that even fifty years hence 56% of all citizens will still be white and three-fifths of those actually voting will be white. Presently, eighty percent of employment is service-sector: this statistic is not likely to lessen and may appreciably increase with time. Further, blue-collar work has continued to decline and now represents only 25% of the workforce. More than 70 percent of mothers with children from ages six to seventeen work outside the home. About 50% of women with a child one-year or less also work outside the home.
The authors give a strong case for the white working class dropping behind in income and status over the last 20 years. They label the BA or BS degree as the great divide. Again, they give exhaustive references to the following findings. Between 1979 and 1999 the average real (adjusted for inflation) wage for those with a college degree went up 14 percent. Those with some college fell 4%. Those with HS diploma fell 10%. In addition, those without an HS diploma dropped 24%
As a corollary to the above statistics, the authors also review the percentage increase in family income by quintile from 1979 to 1998. The findings are the lowest quintile lost about .3 per cent income per year, the next fifth increase by .2% percent per year, the next fifth up .4% percentage increase per year, the next fifth up .8 percent per year and, finally, the top quintile being up 1.7 percent per year.
As always, these statistics are thought to be dramatic documentation of income inequality and unfairness. What the authors fail to mention is that the income quintiles are on family income; hence the top quintile is actually 26% of the population and this quintile works over 4000 hours a year. The bottom quintile has a large cohort of single women with children and the average hours worked per year is 950 or less. Finally, in respect to the lowest quintile the additional benefits of Medicaid, Food Stamps and subsidized housing are not included. Finally, there is always a great number of people moving from one quintile to another and seventy percent of all those in the bottom quintile will not be there 4 years hence.
The authors seem to flail about when discussing egalitarian issues and revert to more a Democrat party position than their otherwise excellent analysis of statistical material.
In further describing the forgotten white working class, the authors point out the current median family income for this group is $42,000 (Year 2000) and they are employed mostly as low-level white collar workers and service workers. The proportion that is blue-collar workers employed in manufacturing is no more than seventeen percent. Most of the white working class live and dominate the suburbs. The suburbs have increased in size less from migration from the inner city and more from migration from small towns and rural areas.
In this book, there is a general failure to examine the forgotten majority's values. They do reference Wattenberg's Values Matter Most but their subsequent analysis does not review this important facet of political choice. Indeed, abortion does not appear in the index of the book at all. Other than indicating, the forgotten class believes in opportunity, hard work, individual achievement and social commitment the authors spend little time on this subject.
In explaining the Democrat Party's consistent loss of voter support over the last twenty or more years the authors focus on the failure of the Party to address the "Forgotten White Working Class" economic concerns. Besides this lack of concern they point out that the distrust in government by this group (an increasing problem for Democrats) is really distrust in government results. From their vantage point, the authors feel the white working class is more liberal than assumed. To recapture this group, policies in respect to health care, retirement and a moving away from race-based initiatives are mandatory.
Most of the remainder of the book reviews the findings of the elections since 1988 and the loss of about nine percent of the Democrat vote before 1992. White, working class men are now voting Democrat only thirty-five percent of the time. About forty-two percent of white working class women vote Democrat. In categorizing blocks of voters and their voting patterns one surprising statistic was that white women with an advanced degree voted fifty-three percent Democrat in the House and 56% for Bill Clinton in 1996. The authors correctly point out that women with post-graduate degrees only represent three percent of the electorate.
The authors economic analyses and arguments are well documented and thought out. They more or less ignore the social issues. Looking at their data would suggest that attitudes and beliefs in respect to abortion, gay rights, affirmative action and gun control might explain a good deal of the voting pattern changes they ascribe to economics.
Capitalism makes the consumer king. What the consumer buys, uses or supports determines who is and who is not successful in business and politics. Liberal intellectuals seldom appreciate the consumer is king: their hope is to find the more perfect society where rewards are more rational and not dependent on the market place. The authors of this book have tried to avoid this mistake and have succeeded more than most.
I did this book review for my lobbyist daughter last Fall before the election.
There's the "ordinary man" and there's the "ordinary working man." These are two different groups. To the dems, the ordinary man is one more concerned with his color or sexual orientation or handicap or entitlements than with issues related to working. To the Republicans, the ordinary man is one more concerned with the rigors of working and the taxes he pays to support the freeloading classes.
Did she give you an "A"? You deserve it...
Blacks remain the largest minority, at 12%. Hispanics are the fastest growing, at around 10%. Whoever is the missing 13%?
The authors economic analyses and arguments are well documented and thought out. They more or less ignore the social issues. Looking at their data would suggest that attitudes and beliefs in respect to abortion, gay rights, affirmative action and gun control might explain a good deal of the voting pattern changes they ascribe to economics.
I think you're right here. I think this group is more put off by the Demonrats' pandering to minorities, homosexuals, etc. than affected by economic issues. They may be hurting some, but I doubt if they see the Dems as any better for them than the GOP economically. A strong dose of class warfare might change that if the Dems are seen as credible.
This income loss can only result in huge social strains. It is due to illegal immigrants taking the 'jobs that Americans won't do'.... to quote a favorite phrase of the Texicans on FR.
The claim that there are "jobs that Americans won't do" is commonly repeated nowadays, and many people believe it. It is, however, completely false. The true statement is "there are jobs that Americans won't do at the wages I'm willing to pay for said job. That's the big secret that they don't want to talk about.
What is really frightening about this is the fact that if Americans give in and take these jobs, they still end up on the losing end of the stick, because illegals who come in and take these jobs qualify for government benefits that citizens don't qualify for! Then they wonder why people are getting increasingly frustrated with the whole immigration issue.
Which benefits are you talking about. I don't know of any benefits that aliens qualify for but not citizens.
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