Free Republic

A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat that we don't know which campaigns will turn out the best in terms of organization, strategy, tactics, or execution, much less which candidates will step on land mines along the way. The Democratic nomination appears fairly straightforward. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is now the prohibitive favorite. If her early stumbles during her book tour, or remarks like the one she made about...

The reality show clan backed Mike Huckabee in '08 and Rick Santorum in '12. Now, they may face a real tough choice. It may be that the fastest-growing demographic in the Republican Party is pro-life, telegenic, homeschooled, and mostly under the age of 27—you know, the Duggars. As in the stars of the TLC reality show 19 Kids and Counting. In the past couple election cycles, this birth-control-shunning family has emerged as a political player on the right. And now it looks likely that they will face a tough decision when it comes to which social conservative GOPer to back...

Based on historical patterns, the next president is likely to be a GenXer. This is not good news for the many baby boomers running, or thinking about running, in 2016. When voters decide it is time to move the presidency on to the next generation, they keep electing presidents in that next generation, or they go on to the one that follows. They do not go back. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were from the baby boomer generation. Barack Obama is from the Gen X generation (those born 1961 to 1981). If the pattern holds, the next president will...

(VIDEO-AT-LINK) In the fall of 2007, as Mike Huckabee was surging in the Iowa polls, Mitt Romney’s foundering presidential campaign dispatched a camera crew to Arkansas with the charge to produce one of the most brutal ads of the election cycle. The final product — a withering spot that tied Huckabee to a 2003 murder committed by a serial rapist who was paroled while he was governor of Arkansas — never saw the light of day. But the unaired ad, obtained this week by BuzzFeed News, highlights a potentially potent line of attack on Huckabee as he considers a 2016...

efore Mike Huckabee ran in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Lori Jungling, a mother of four in Altoona, about 15 minutes outside Des Moines, had never been involved in a presidential campaign. Actually, Jungling had never even bothered to vote. But in 2007, the message from the Baptist minister-turned-Republican Arkansas governor made its way to Jungling’s personal faith-first foundation, and soon enough she was volunteering—a lot. Calls, emails, tweets, events. She even served as state director for Huck PAC, Huckabee’s 2008 grassroots political action committee. She didn’t take one dime. “He believes what I believe,” she told me. That’s the kind...

I'm going to confess an unpopular opinion (among liberals at least) and say that as much as I enjoy The Daily Show, Jon Stewart is usually not that good an interviewer when it comes to political figures. He's about two-thirds of a good interviewer—there are always some good questions, but he usually misses opportunities to ask critical follow-ups, and when his interviewee is struggling, he'll often jump in with a joke. Which is his job, of course—it's a comedy show, and he's a comedian—but it also has the effect of letting his subject off the hook. Last night though, Stewart...

On Jan. 4, New York Times' Frank Bruni kicked off the new presidential race with an analysis of a likely - some say inevitable - Bush / Clinton rematch (Jeb vs. Hillary). Predictably it covered little that those outside The Political Class likely even found compelled to read. What, after all, is there to say of such a matchup? If (another) Bush runs against (another) Clinton, and no one can tell them apart, will anyone notice? How many beyond the politically passionate — that is: those whose votes are ensured no matter who each party fields — will care who...

Reporters took joy in the first Mike Huckabee campaign in 2008. Here was a former governor from Arkansas, accompanied by Chuck Norris and only Chuck Norris, kicking ass. Mitt Romney was bussing in clean-cut college Republicans to CPAC and dropping bills everywhere, and Huckabee — the guy who had to iron his own suit — was thrashing him. There were no surly and cynical 29-year-old press handlers. There were no rotund money-raisers. It was real populism. A man and his voters. This time around, when Huckabee announced that he was considering another run for president, Washington's journalists collectively began to...

As a regular presence on the Fox News Channel for six years, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, 59, hasn’t exactly been hiding in the political shadows. Though he didn’t vie for the presidency in 2012, he’s been regularly airing his conservative and evangelical views on his top-rated weekend show, Huckabee. An outspoken opponent of abortion and gay marriage, this “man of deep faith,” as he calls himself, has also been a presence on weekday radio. Now the ordained Southern Baptist minister is leaving the media lights to consider a possible run for the GOP nomination for the White House in...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) announcement Saturday that he is leaving Fox News as he considers running for president again has regnited an old feud between himself and the conservative Club for Growth -- a spat that dates back nearly a decade. “In a year in which GOP voters appear likely to have several good pro-economic growth candidates to choose from, Mike Huckabee’s big government record would stand out from the crowd, and not in a good way," said Club for Growth president David McIntosh in a statement Monday. Huckabee, a strong retail campaigner with a loyal evangelical Christian...

From the first day of 2011, Mitt Romney was the favorite to win the 2012 Republican presidential primary campaign. No one else was even close. The 2016 outlook could not be more different. Offered the choice to bet on one single candidate to win the nomination versus the rest of the field, the choice would have to be "the field." For the first time in years, there is no one next in line. And without a former vice president or powerhouse former candidate looking likely to run, Republicans are shaping up to spend the next year and a half fighting...

There was a time when I thought that Mike Huckabee had a chance to win over enough “somewhat conservative” voters that, when added to his pre-existing base among conservative white evangelicals, would give him a good chance to win the 2016 Republican nomination. I don’t think that chance exists anymore (if it ever did). He hasn’t done any of the maneuvering he would need to do in order to expand his base of support. Thirteen months is not a long time and he has shown no inclination to make the moves he would need to make in order to expand...

<p>Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and vice presidential pick, is headed to Iowa in January 2015 for a conservative gathering that will showcase no fewer than nine potential 2016 presidential contenders.</p> <p>She’s one of the confirmed speakers at the inaugural Iowa Freedom Summit, an event organized by Iowa Rep. Steve King and conservative group Citizens United to “bring grassroots activists from across Iowa to hear directly from national conservative leaders,” per its website. The event is scheduled for Jan. 24.</p>

Happy new year! Welcome to the start of the presidential campaign marathon. For your consideration are five likely candidates, each representing a distinct segment of the U.S. political spectrum. Republicans have three probable candidates. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would represent the business conservative wing of the GOP -- Pew Research estimates this is 12 percent of likely voters. Bush would be the favorite of the big GOP spenders, the one percent that favors capitalism over democracy. Jeb's strengths are national name recognition, personable manner, Hispanic spouse, and reputation for moderation on social issues. His weaknesses: high unfavorability ratings and...

The casino magnate and big Gingrich booster in 2012 may have his eyes on a new candidate in 2016. Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and his wife Miriam spent an astonishing $98 million trying to elect conservative candidates during the 2012 election cycle. The Adelsons threw more than a fifth of that total at Winning our Future, a super PAC supporting GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. We all know how Gingrich’s primary campaign against Mitt Romney turned out, but the Adelsons’ contributions kept Gingrich’s campaign afloat far longer than the former House Speaker would otherwise have survived. With potential candidates...

In a new poll of likely Republican primary voters nationwide by Zogby Analytics, 2012 GOP nominee Romney leads the pack with 14%, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (12%), Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (10%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (8%), former Arkansas Governor and now Fox News Host Mike Huckabee (7%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (7%), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (5%), Rep. and former Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan (4%), Texas Governor Rick Perry (4%), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (3%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (3%), South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (2%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (1%), and both...

Liberals powerless to stop the Clinton-Wall Street gravy train.Despite her best efforts and most passionate gesticulations, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) failed to shut down the government on Thursday, thus proving her political clout is vastly inferior to that of GOP colleague Ted Cruz. Warren had urged House Democrats to block a controversial spending package, which included a provision to roll back a portion of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill known as the “swaps pushout” rule. Warren, for the record, does not like Wall Street. “It is time for all of us to stand up and fight,” she said on...

The Republican sweep of November 2014 is now fully in the rearview mirror. And the focus in D.C. is squarely on the 2016 presidential election. Who will win the biggest prize of all and finally replace Barack Obama? With Hillary Clinton perched high atop the Democratic Party polls, it appears as though she’ll sail to her party’s nomination almost unimpeded. On the Republican side, the race is as divided and contentious as ever… Of the prospects, though, one particular man stands out from the crowd. And for this reason, I followed him all the way to Poland so I could...

Fox News and potential presidential candidate Ben Carson went their separate ways last week. Is Fox host and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee next? The tension between Huckabee's current job and possible future job has been laid bare in a number of recent news stories. Huckabee, who sought the Republican nomination for president in 2008, is clearly considering a second run -- which would mean he'd have to give up his Saturday night show on Fox News. On Wednesday, Fox News executive vice president of programming Bill Shine indicated that a decision might be made soon. "We are taking a...

More GOP cavalry arrived in Georgia today as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz stumped with David Perdue and Gov. Nathan Deal in Canton, invoking memories of long gas lines and stagflation as he attacked their Democratic rivals. “Here in Georgia, we’ve got on the ballot Jimmy Carter and Sam Nunn,” he said. “It’s like ‘That 70’s Show.'” The Texas firebrand echoed Perdue’s talking points by saying that an election of Michelle Nunn, the Democratic nominee, equals a stamp of approval for President Barack Obama’s agenda. Republicans need a net gain of six Senate seats to take control of the chamber, and...