If you were paid to predict, or retroactively identify, the voting pattern of any individual whom you cannot see, whose name you do not know, and whose address you do not know but of whom you were allowed to ask only one question, that question would almost certainly be:
What is your race?
If he or she identifies himself to be black, you would be right 90 to 95% of the time with the obvious answer and you would pick up your paycheck.
If he or she identifies himself to be Hispanic, you would be right 60 to 70% of the time.
If he or she identifies herself as Jewish, you would be right about 70% of the time.
If he or she identifies himself to be white, you would be right barely more than half the time.
If he or she identifies himself as Polynesian, Eskimo, or American Indian you would be right about 90% of the time.
Gender, class, income, education all important pieces of data but not one is as important as race. Demographics make electoral destiny and race above all determines demographic tendencies. The demographics of race are clear.
I hope to talk to you again before two years.