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Posts by TonyInOhio

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  • Dazzling! Melania Trump Arrives at La Scala Concert for G7 leaders In Custom Dolce & Gabbana Gown

    05/26/2017 1:03:47 PM PDT · 39 of 95
    TonyInOhio to laplata

    I see the President of France brought his Mom along. That’s nice.

  • Dozens of 17-year-olds voted illegally in Wisconsin primary

    03/13/2017 12:31:17 PM PDT · 18 of 19
    TonyInOhio to Ellendra
    I'm a GOP Board Member of an Ohio county Board of Elections. Ohio law allows 17 year-olds to vote for statewide offices in the primary if they will be 18 years-old by Election Day. In my county, sixty-four ballots were cast by these potential electors. Our Board wound up having to remake about half of them, and a significant number of others were ruled invalid, because 17 year-olds can't follow printed instructions on the ballot.

    When I read of proposals to lower the voting age further, a chill runs down my spine. :)

  • Watch live: White House spokesman Sean Spicer's first official press conference

    01/23/2017 11:53:23 AM PST · 183 of 292
    TonyInOhio to MagUSNRET

    Spicer’s first presser was a test.

    He passed, admirably so.

  • David Frum: Trump is worst person to take office of President

    01/20/2017 6:37:31 AM PST · 23 of 89
    TonyInOhio to AC Beach Patrol

    If you haven’t seen it, go watch the CBC election night coverage on Youtube. Frum was one of the panelists, and watching him get more depressed as the evening passed was *delicious*.

  • Kasich Staff Had ‘Come To Jesus’ Meeting After Election

    11/09/2016 8:54:15 PM PST · 69 of 90
    TonyInOhio to Cvengr
    Why didn’t Kasich keep his word and promote the winner of the RNC? Ohio was nearly lost. Where was Kasich?

    He absolutely should have endorsed Trump and campaigned for him. However, the race for Ohio was not close; Trump won by more than 450,000 votes, almost a ten point margin. His victory mirrored Reagan's 1980 win in Ohio, no small feat.

  • Kasich Staff Had ‘Come To Jesus’ Meeting After Election

    11/09/2016 8:49:05 PM PST · 68 of 90
    TonyInOhio to kevcol

    The Governor was angling for a Cabinet post in a Hillary Administration. Trump upended that plan. Sad!

  • This Badass Kurd Plunged His Bulletproof BMW Into ISIS Snipers to Save 70 Lives

    11/04/2016 4:45:46 PM PDT · 16 of 34
    TonyInOhio to Kaslin

    God Bless him!

  • Sanders to stump for Clinton Thursday [Ohio]

    11/01/2016 4:49:09 PM PDT · 45 of 58
    TonyInOhio to Hadean
    Mahoning County (Youngstown) voted 2 to 1 for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Even in the midst of the Reagan landslide in 1984, Mahoning County remained faithful to the Democrats, voting 59% to 41% for Mondale.

    The voter ID in the primary this year was 52% Dem, 48% GOP. Mahoning County last voted that Republican in the Election of 1930.

    It's not just Mahoning, either - Trumbull County and several of Ohio's Appalachian counties to the south trended strongly Trump in the primary.

    It's no wonder the're sending in Sanders, but it won't help - I am confident Trump will carry Ohio.

  • Early voting down in Ohio, Hamilton County (but not Butler County)

    10/26/2016 11:41:08 AM PDT · 1 of 20
    TonyInOhio
    This is an early, but to me, surprisingly positive indicator of the state of the race in Ohio. Hamilton County voted for Obama twice, giving him about 52% each time. In 2012, in particular, the Democrat turnout advantage in Ohio came almost entirely from early voting, and it appears that their efforts this time are lagging.

    At the same time, Butler County, the GOP stronghold that neighbors Hamilton County (and the home of John Boehner) has seen a significant in absentee and early voting.

    Taken together, these bits are good news.

  • Good news for Trump? Butler County's absentee voting shows steady increase for Republicans (Ohio)

    10/25/2016 7:36:55 PM PDT · 21 of 27
    TonyInOhio to Ravi
    This is interesting and potentially predictive news. Romney won 62% of the vote in Butler County in 2012, and Butler is one of the keys suburban GOP counties that need to churn out large margins for Trump to swamp the margins The Harridan will get from the Dem counties here. If Trump is outperforming Romney in Butler County, where a large segment of the electorate is white college-educated women, then he's in good shape. Of note is the fact that absentee requests statewide are down about 15% compared to 2012.

    I'll add one caveat: early voting is not necessarily representative of the total vote tally. Older, typically Republican, voters tend to vote early, so the early vote may not predict the final outcome.

    Having said that, I think this is pretty good news. :)

  • Poll: Clinton Maintains 50-Point Lead Among Latinos

    10/18/2016 6:43:12 PM PDT · 18 of 40
    TonyInOhio to Steelfish

    Obama won 71% of the Latino vote. If the Harridan is pulling less than that, she could be in trouble in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado.

  • MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW BRIEFING- SITUATIION OVERVIEW

    10/06/2016 1:02:07 PM PDT · 90 of 298
    TonyInOhio to Proudcongal
    It looks as though Matthew is undergoing eyewall replacement, which will weaken the central winds during the cycle. It's possible the eyewall will not reform before the eye begins to interact with the Florida coast, which would serve to lessen the severity of onshore gusts.

    One more positive: the latest radar imagery shows Matthew is moving NNW, and if that trend continues, it may veer farther from the coast than originally thought.

  • Ohio county, with nearly perfect presidential record, leans Trump

    09/30/2016 5:40:08 PM PDT · 22 of 25
    TonyInOhio to bigbob; LS
    Hamilton and Sandusky counties are identified by Axiom as their “bellwether” counties in Ohio, but maybe Ottawa is too, if you beleive that part trends are valid indicators in this election cycle.

    There is no bellwether county in Ohio, especially this year. Trump will vastly exceed Romney's margins in formerly strong Obama counties, like Mahoning and Trumbull, but will likely underperform in the GOP suburbs of Cincinnati (Warren, Butler, and Clermont). His margins in very strong but sparsely populated counties, like Putnam, Mercer, and Van Wert, will be much better than Romney achieved, but there are fewer votes there.

    Perhaps the county that will come close to the statewide average this time around is Montgomery, the old stomping grounds of LS.

    Trump needs about 500,000 votes out of the remainder of the state to offset the big tallies The Harridan will rack up in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.

    My guess as of today is that Trump wins Ohio by one to two points, Portman crushes Strickland, and all of the House incumbents win.

  • Ohio Absentees

    09/29/2016 12:48:31 PM PDT · 20 of 23
    TonyInOhio to TonyInOhio

    One more tidbit: of the ballots cast in Mahoning County (Youngstown is the county seat), during the 2012 primary election, 68% were cast by Democrats and 31% were cast by Republicans. In the 2016 primary, 52% were cast by Democrats, and 48% were cast by Republicans.

  • Ohio Absentees

    09/29/2016 12:43:24 PM PDT · 19 of 23
    TonyInOhio to LS
    Meanwhile, a well-placed elections official in OH tells me that over the years Ohioans have gotten more comfortable with absentee voting and that's a good thing because "our down ballot candidates, judges, commissioners, tend to do much better on absentees than in person." Normally he said a judge's vote will go up 8-10% on absentee ballots over walk-ins.

    53% of all ballots cast in Ohio during the 2012 election period were voted absentee or early in-person.

    Ballots to overseas and military voters were mailed last Saturday; the election is underway!

  • Absentee ballot requests soaring (PA)

    09/28/2016 1:04:31 PM PDT · 20 of 26
    TonyInOhio to Paine in the Neck

    I saw some registration numbers out of Pennsylvania this morning. As of today, the total number of registered Democrats was down approximately 151,000 compared to November 2012, and the number of registered Republicans was up about 69,000 over 2012. Their reporting of independent or non-affiliated registered voters is incomplete. I believe another summary report will be available next Tuesday. The last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania is October 11th.

  • Federal Court Rules Ohio's Voter Purge Unconstitutional

    09/25/2016 7:03:12 PM PDT · 66 of 72
    TonyInOhio to CitizenUSA
    I don’t know the rules in Ohio, but many states allow voters to cast provisional ballots. If a legitimate voter is purged by this, wouldn’t they still be able to vote? I’m talking about a person who thinks they are registered, shows up at the polls, and is told they aren’t on the list.

    Yes, that's correct. A voter who was formerly registered but purged would still be able to cast a provisional ballot. However, that ballot will not be counted unless they can provide proper identification and proof of residency if the residency is questionable. If those requirements are met, and if a GOP and Democrat member of the county Board of Elections for the county in which the ballot was cast agree that the ballot is valid, then and only then will the ballot be counted. Ohio's ID requirements are stringent without being onerous, so electors attempted to cast a ballot in good faith will have no problem meeting them.

    I am a GOP member of a county Board of Elections in Ohio. As mentioned upthread, the applications for receipt of absentee ballots were mailed a week ago, and the majority of counties have no record of which registrations were purged from the rolls, so there will be no "do over".

  • New Marquette Law School Poll shows Clinton leading Trump among likely voters

    09/21/2016 11:20:57 AM PDT · 11 of 27
    TonyInOhio to Redmen4ever

    The Marquette Law School poll is usually the most accurate one done in the state, and it was the only one to correctly predict Gov. Walker’s victory in the recall election. A two-point lead for The Harridan in this poll is very good news for Trump, indeed.

  • Ruth Marcus: Early voting’s pros and cons

    09/21/2016 10:46:11 AM PDT · 12 of 14
    TonyInOhio to V_TWIN
    Its always been suspect to me also. I have heard early votes are not even counted unless it is necessary. Can anyone confirm or refute that?

    I can refute that - I am a Board Member of a county Board Of Elections in Ohio. We count the votes. :)

    In Ohio, absentee ballots are segregated until the polls close at 7:30pm. They are then sorted and tabulated. Early in-peson votes are counted in the same manner. Typically, we complete this process before the first of our precinct boxes are returned, so the early votes are counted first. Then the votes cast at precincts (except for provisional ballots) are tabulated, and then the provisional ballots are counted. We count every ballot that can legally be couned.

    In 2012, 53% of all ballots cast in Ohio were voted absentee or early, and that percentage will likely increase this year. As our Secretary of State says, we "make it easy to vote and hard to cheat".

  • Florida Voter Registration Statistics (9/19/16 vs 10/1/12 vs 10/1/08 vs 10/1/04

    09/20/2016 2:24:34 PM PDT · 14 of 19
    TonyInOhio to rigelkentaurus

    Interestingly, the 2012 Exit Polls in Florida showed the self-identified party ID breakdown as 35/33/33, D/R/I. They also showed the breakdown by gender as 55% female, 45% male, indicating Romney did a poor job turning out white Republicans, and Obama did a fine job turning out white women.

    If anything, Trump will do significantly better amongst men than Romney did, and if that’s the case, I think he wins Florida by a couple of points.