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Blumenthal warns: [T]he initial results of the exit poll interviews have had frequent problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats that has appeared to some degree in every presidential election since 1988. Usually the bias is small, but in 2004 it was just big enough to convince millions of Americans who saw the leaked results on the Internet that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush. It didn't work out that way. The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on...

In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney. “My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.” The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.

Hate exit polls as much as I do. Mike Royko had the PERFECT solution for them. LIE. Here is an old column of his I dug up. Enjoy.

Breaking from two decades of tradition, this year’s election exit poll is set to include surveys of voters in 31 states, not all 50 as it has for the past five presidential elections, according to multiple people involved in the planning.

Nearly four years after enthusiastic younger voters poured into polling booths to help push Barack Obama over the finish line and into the Oval Office, their hope has turned to fear and pollster John Zogby says that they are ready to give up on politics. “I truly am worried about today's twenty-somethings,” he frets. “They are our global generation and I have seen them move from hope and grand expectations for themselves and their world to anxiety and disillusionment. We can't afford to lose them,” he adds.

Remember those exit polls that came out yesterday BEFORE the polls closed and before the actual results were released? The exit polls had two main "findings": 1) Walker and Barrett were tied, and it was going to be a "long night," and 2) Obama was beating Romney by 6 As we all now know, Walker beat Barrett by 7. i.e., the exit polls overstated actual Dem support by 7 points. Since the same exit poll had Obama ahead by 6, you do the math. Romney is ahead in Wisconsin, period.

Many of us oldsters remember the Bradley Effect. Back in ye olde 1982, Tom Bradley, the longtime popular mayor of Los Angeles, a nice affable fellow in my recollection, ran for California governor against a fairly faceless guy named George Deukmejian. Most of the polls — including exit polls — showed Bradley with a significant lead. But Deukmejian won, narrowly. This was all put down to a form of covert racism. People didn’t want to admit they wouldn’t vote for a black man. As an ex-civil rights worker, I remember being hugely depressed by Bradley’s defeat. Times have changed. These...

Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters in today's recall election say recall elections are only appropriate for official misconduct, according to early CBS News exit polls. Twenty-eight percent said they think they are suitable for any reason, while nine percent think they are never appropriate. Today's recall election in Wisconsin pits Republican Gov. Scott Walker versus Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, in a rematch of their 2010 race. According to the early exit polls, 6 percent say they decided on their candidate in the last few days, with 93 percent saying they made up their minds before that. The recall effort...

How do you feel about the way Scott Walker is handling his job as governor? Total Romney Santorum Approve 79% 50% 37% Disapprove 21% 19% 36%

People are still voting. Polls don't close for another hour. Please, refrain from posting any exit polling data.

Yesterday we introduced you to the most unemployed person in America. We identified him using simple data from the BLS.Now meet the most employed person.Firstly, it's a woman: 8.9% unemployment rate. Secondly, she's white: 8.9% unemployment rate. Thirdly, she's got a college education: 5.1% unemployment rate. Put it all together and you've got: a thin college-educated white female professional in Bismark, N.D. Click here to see the demographic factors behind this claim

LAS VEGAS — At polling places across Nevada Tuesday, researchers conducting exit polls asked voters one fundamental question about Harry Reid: Do you approve or disapprove of the way he has handled his job as senator? The results were terrible for the Senate Majority Leader. Fifty-five percent of voters disapproved of the job he has done, while 44 percent approved. Such numbers might seem a sure indicator of defeat, and yet by Tuesday night, Reid was leading his supporters in a victory celebration. The exit pollsters also asked whether Reid, running for a fifth term in the Senate, has been...

As of this writing, the GOP has been declared the winner in or is winning in 243 House districts. If this number holds, it would exceed any Republican majority since 1946. The exit polls portray an electorate that is broadly dissatisfied with the performance of Barack Obama to date. 54% of voters say they disapprove of President Obama's job performance, and they broke 85-11 for the Republicans. The 45% who approve of Obama's job performance broke 85-13 for the Democrats. The economy dominated voter concerns, and those who were most concerned about the economy voted heavily Republican. Disapproval of Obama...

Only about a quarter of voters in Tuesday's House races blamed Obama for the nation's economic troubles. But about half think Obama's policies will hurt the country. About four out of 10 voters said they support the tea party movement, and they overwhelmingly voted Republican.

Since they will not be showing exit polls very well in Massachusetts, take a look at Boston.com 2010 senate results at link provided. On the right column you will see Pollwatcher and under that it states this: poll reports from readers. Click on that link. Now pick a city/town to view reader results. I checked my town and every town around me and the overwhelming majority is for Brown. I was very excited to see this! Pick a town and give results if you want. Should be interesting to see what is really happening by voters!

The Massachusetts Senate race was a complete snoozer until January 5, when pollster Scott Rasmussen released a survey showing Republican Scott Brown trailing Democrat Martha Coakley by only nine points. That surprised many, but still wasn't a true wake-up call that the race would be a barnburner. As late as January 10, the Boston Globe carried a headline trumpeting a poll showing Ms. Coakley with a 15-point lead. Mr. Brown's surge was so sudden that many of the usual accoutrements of closely-contested elections are missing in the Bay State.

No Exit Polls [Robert Costa] John Fund of WSJ.com explains: The Massachusetts Senate race was a complete snoozer until January 5, when pollster Scott Rasmussen released a survey showing Republican Scott Brown trailing Democrat Martha Coakley by only nine points. That surprised many, but still wasn't a true wake-up call that the race would be a barnburner. As late as January 10, the Boston Globe carried a headline trumpeting a poll showing Ms. Coakley with a 15-point lead. Mr. Brown's surge was so sudden that many of the usual accoutrements of closely-contested elections are missing in the Bay State. One...

Is *any* news org showing updating voter exit interviews?

Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. But in Virginia, where polls closed at 7 p.m., Creigh Deeds' main problem looks to have been Creigh Deeds. The Democratic gubernatorial nominee fell short on several measures in connecting with Virginia voters: They divided evenly in preliminary exit poll results on whether Deeds "shares your values" – 48 percent yes, 49 percent no. His Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell, scored better; 60 percent said he shares their values. Similarly, just 42 percent in Virginia saw Deeds as "about...

Pajamas Media is reporting the first exit poll data out of New Jersey and Virginia: First exit polls from Virginia: McDonnell 54.5, Deeds 45. And from New Jersey: Corzine 47, Christie: 47 with third-party candidate Daggett "barely registering."If Daggett is "barely registering, it should help Chris Christie.