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What was once a 15 point spread has closed to 4 points. PPP reports: The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points...

Latest MA GOP Primary Poll: Romney 64% Santorum 16%, Paul 7%, Newt 6% Details at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

A new survey of Minnesota from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Newt Gingrich with a big lead in this state’s caucuses, which will be held on February 7. And what is more, A Gingrich win here could potentially embarrass Romney very much. The numbers: Gingrich 36%, Romney 18%, Santorum 17%, and Paul 13%. The survey of likely caucus-goers was conducted from January 21-22, and has a ±5.6% margin of error. Romney actually won the Minnesota caucuses in 2008, which were held on the February 5 Super Tuesday event of that year. In that cycle, Romney had emerged as the conservative...

Santorum's so-called surge is all but gone. Huntsman is catching up.

Obama leads Romney, 46-43, down a hair from a five-point advantage (47-42) in August. He has also declined against newly risen Herman Cain, from a 14-point lead (50-36) to half that (49-42). Obama leads Ron Paul by nine, 48-39; Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann each by 11 (50-39 and 51-40, respectively); and Newt Gingrich by 14 (52-38). All of these changes except the one against Cain are statistically insignificant, but it still makes the state closer than the president would like. Then again, Obama’s huge 2008 win was unprecedented in recent history. Al Gore won this swing state by less...

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll confirms what the Florida straw poll showed last month: Rick Perry is bleeding support from activist conservatives. In the national survey, Perry’s share of the GOP primary vote has fallen to 16 percent – a tie with Herman Cain and 9 points behind Mitt Romney, who draws support from a quarter of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Continue Reading Ron Paul is in fourth place, with 11 percent, followed by Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich tied at 7 percent. Rick Santorum takes 2 percent and Jon Huntsman takes half that. The apparent explanation for Perry’s...

Maybe that P5 straw poll in Florida had more significance than some thought. A new poll by Survey USA of likely Florida primary voters shows Mitt Romney ahead in the GOP nomination race at 27%, but the second-place finisher comes within the margin of error — and it’s not Rick Perry: In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12, Romney...

Florida poll puts Romney up two points over … ShareTweet posted at 10:45 am on September 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey printer-friendly Maybe that P5 straw poll in Florida had more significance than some thought. A new poll by Survey USA of likely Florida primary voters shows Mitt Romney ahead in the GOP nomination race at 27%, but the second-place finisher comes within the margin of error — and it’s not Rick Perry: In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry...

A new poll finds President Obama tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a swing state Obama won by 10 points in 2008. Additionally, the president faces upside-down approval ratings there. Forty-six percent of Keystone State voters approve of Obama while 48 percent disapprove, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling (D). This is actually an improvement for the president; when the polling firm surveyed Pennsylvania voters in April, those numbers were 42-52. Independents are split on their approval of Obama, with 44 percent approving of his performance and 45 percent disapproving. Romney and Obama are tied...

In a Fox News poll released Wednesday, Romney received the backing of 18 percent of GOP primary voters. He's followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 13 percent, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 11 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 10 percent. Perry and Giuliani have not declared their candidacies. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, also undeclared, is now in single digits at 8 percent support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul garners the support of 7 percent. All other candidates receive the support of 5 percent or less. Palin supporters splinter when asked their second choice,...

A few weeks ago, the race for the Republican presidential nomination was a jumble of candidates, none of whom seemed to be winning the party's hearts or minds: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich. For a moment, some GOP voters even pinned their hopes on pizza magnate Herman Cain, mostly because he didn't sound — or look — like the others. But now, if you talk with Republican political professionals, the GOP race has suddenly settled into a contest among only two or three potential nominees. There's Romney, still the front-runner, stolidly running a cautious and conventional campaign. There's Michele...

Herman Cain’s scrappy campaign for the GOP presidential nomination is making an impression. From Public Policy Polling of North Carolina: Mitt Romney has the lead in PPP’s first Iowa poll since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump exited the race, but with six different candidates polling in double digits it’s clear this thing is wide open. Romney polls at 21%. Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are tied for second at 15%. Newt Gingrich is 4th with 12%, Michele Bachmann 5th with 11%, Tim Pawlenty 6th with 10%, Ron Paul 7th with 8%, and Jon Huntsman 8th with 0% (only one respondent...

Among the New Hampshire electorate as a whole, Palin is viewed favorably by just 28 percent, according to a recent survey by the Democratic automated pollster Public Policy Polling. In PPP surveys in 31 states over the last six months, just three states had smaller proportions of Palin fans, and all were in the northeast: New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. (Though the firm is partisan, its results generally track with polls by other organizations. PPP’s results were used in this analysis in the interest of consistency across different states.) Continue Reading Text Size -+reset Listen Palin’s highest ratings, in...

2012 Presidential Matchups In a head-to-head matchup among all adults, Obama leads Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota by an identical 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17. Closer, as noted, are Huckabee, who trails Obama by 50-44 percent; and Romney, who comes within a scant 4 points, with 45 percent to Obama's 49. Notably, both Romney and Huckabee move numerically ahead of Obama, by 49-44 percent and 48-45 percent, respectively, among independents, the quintessential swing voters in national elections. All...

Third Edition: Pawlenty's In, Thune's Out, And The 'Invisible Primary' Is Slowly Drawing To A Close. After months of masking their intentions while nimbly navigating the invisible primary, White House candidates are beginning to show their hands. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty became the first top-tier candidate to formally announce an exploratory committee this month, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is close to doing the same - moves that will likely trigger a run of announcements from other contenders in the coming weeks. With the Iowa caucuses tentatively slated for February 6, 2012, candidates have roughly 10 months left...

One too many political tea-leaf readers say that Sarah Palin, with her rock-star personality, loyal following and outsized influence on the Republican Party, could jump into the 2012 presidential race at the last minute and run off with the GOP nomination for president. This is in defiance of consistent and plain evidence that Palin is going nowhere fast. Now a new poll from the University of New Hampshire only adds to the brief against her running. Among likely Republican voters, the former governor of Alaska garnered just six percent support. Blowing out the field was former next-door Gov. Mitt Romney...

Even in Republican Arizona, Barack Obama has a healthy lead over Sarah Palin. With the state swinging away from Democrats, having Palin on the ballot come general election time next year is Obama's best hope of winning the Grand Canyon State, according to a new poll. Democrats have taken Arizona in only one presidential race since 1952. Continue Reading The survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Obama topping Palin 49 percent to 41 percent in the state. That's significantly better than he fares against other candidates — Obama trails Mitt Romney by 6 points, Mike Huckabee by 4 points,...

Our new National Poll shows that Mitt Romney could beat Barack Obama in 2012. In our national poll conducted this week, we asked voters where they stand with Obama and the 2012 Presidential election. First, our poll showed Obama with a 46% approval rating and 54% disapprove. Which is a -4% spread from Real Clear Politics approval average. Overall though, Obama still beats all GOP candidates in a general election.

Public Policy Polling is out today with one of the first early presidential primary polls in Nevada, showing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading the early Republican pack. The numbers aren’t much of a surprise. Romney was the only candidate to build a campaign organization in Nevada in 2008. He still has a strong following of invested supporters. Interestingly, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin trails him by 13 percentage points, dispelling some of the notion that Nevada is a strong tea party state. Palin is seen as incredibly popular with the Republican base in Nevada, but not necessarily as a...

Congratulations, Mitt Romney! You have won the Hillary Clinton seat for the 2012 primaries. You're the long-distance frontrunner who is now expected to win New Hampshire. The Magellan poll of "likely 1,451 Republican primary voters," about 2/3 GOP registered and 1/3 independent: Mitt Romney - 39 percent Sarah Palin - 16 percent Mike Huckabee - 10 percent Newt Gingrich - 8 percent Ron Paul - 7 percent Tim Pawlenty - 4 percentanother candidate - 4 percent Rick Santorum - 3 percent Haley Barbour - 1 percent Romney has to be considered the frontrunner, even though he's polling only 7 points...