Free Republic

A year ago, political insiders expected Rand Paul to dominate in Nevada and Iowa, the first two states to hold presidential nominating caucuses. Now, as campaign season ramps up in earnest and he continues to slide in national polls, Paul’s propensity to skip important GOP events has left Republican voters wondering whether he is willing to put in the work to seize his natural advantages in these two early states. In 2012, supporters of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign took over the state Republican parties in both Iowa and Nevada. The elder Paul finished third in the 2012 Nevada caucuses with...

Help Wanted: Desperate U.S. political party looking for benevolent dictator. Need outsider who can break some China (so to speak.) Dedication to conservative principles or loyalty to party is unimportant. Opposition to unaffordable spending, unsustainable entitlements or expansions of federal muscle are no longer required. We will give you all the power you need to make America great again. Donald Trump does not make mistakes, as he is unafraid to tell you: "Every time they say I make a mistake, my poll numbers go up," he told reporters in Iowa. Trump informs us he does not ask God for forgiveness....

Making political predictions rarely turns out well, but here’s one: Donald Trump will not be a candidate for president in 2016. What? Yes, I know, he’s already announced. In my view, though, he won’t take this all the way to the ballot in Iowa, New Hampshire, or any of the Republican caucus or primary elections. Why? Because he’s Donald Trump and everything we know about him tells us he won’t do it. Let’s step back from the Trump frenzy and consider the realities of a possible Trump run. First is the essential question: Will Donald Trump be the next president...

As we’ve seen in all of the post-debate polls, Donald Trump is safely in the lead -- though there is still some question as to how big Trump’s margin really is. Neil Stevens of RedState looks at the polls and says they present a lot of questions. “We have three polls since the debate and the Gathering. Two are registered voter polls by Fox and CNN. The third is a likely voter poll by Rasmussen Reports. They don’t agree with each other, except that name recognition is very important: The candidates who are far ahead in name recognition are doing...

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)CAP-HAITIEN, HAITI — Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul says it's only a matter of time until the country wakes up to Donald Trump's insincere message, but he's worried that some Americans are blinded by his "celebrity." In a series of interviews between performing pro-bono eye surgeries in Haiti with the University of Utah's Moran Eye Center, the Kentucky senator was relaxed in scrubs, dismissive of Trump and critical of the media's role in Trump's rise. "How do you out-Trump the irrational?" he asked. It's a question he and the other Republican candidates are puzzling over. Paul said the reason "people...

The independent Democratic candidate has repeatedly upheld his socialist views throughout his presidential campaign.When a New York Times reporter asked President Obama whether his domestic policies suggested that he was a socialist in 2009, the president responded with a laugh: “The answer would be no.” After the interview, Mr. Obama called the reporter back to elaborate on his answer, saying, “It was hard for me to believe that you were entirely serious about that socialist question.” “That socialist question” has taken on a new form these days, revolving around the only self-described socialist in the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination: Bernie...

While short of an official endorsement, Sarah Palin was effusive in her praise for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, claiming the celebrity billionaire is in touch with working class "Joe Six Pack" values. "I am so happy that he is running," she said. Appearing on Fox's On The Record with Greta Van Susteren Tuesday, Palin was asked if she was endorsing the candidate and billionaire business leader: "Here's the deal Greta, he's the best thing to happen to the permanent political class since the beauty of the Tea Party genuine movement rose up and shined light on crony capitalism, and then...

The bottom line is this: As long as Republican politics demands extremism, some candidates are going to adopt highly controversial positions that rally conservative support while potentially driving away voters in general elections. “Would you support a change in the 14th amendment if necessary to achieve that?” Trump cited his rival’s views on immigration, Iraq and the Common Core education standards. So, I see what Mr. Trump is talking about right there. “Our country is going to hell”. Trump announced in his proposal for his policy for immigration that was released this past Sunday that he wants to put an...

Businessman Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz donÂ’t have much in common, but theyÂ’re shaping up to be great partners in the political poker game that is the 2016 Republican primary. Seventeen political players currently sit around the green felt table of GOP politics waiting to check, bet, raise or fold every news cycle. On the table lie polling points, caucus vote and donor dollars. Despite their vast ideological differences -- Ted Cruz is arguably the most conservative politician in America while Donald Trump often has trouble explaining why heÂ’s a Republican at all -- theyÂ’re looking across the...

The attention-grabbing candidacy of Donald Trump is again bringing out differences between the two White House hopefuls from Texas. The bombastic billionaire put the GOP field on the spot Sunday with the release of a plan to deal with illegal immigration that calls for an end to birthright citizenship. In effect, that would require changing the Fourteenth Amendment, which guarantees citizenship to those born in the United States even if their parents are in the country illegally. Where exactly former Gov. Rick Perry stands on Trump's birthright citizenship position was unclear Wednesday. But over the past few days, Perry has...

We've gone far enough now with the Trump political phenomenon to know that it is no mere or momentary matter of name recognition which has placed him as the top contender for the Republican nomination, as bizarre an eventuality as that might appear. He now leads all national polls and all polls in the key early primary and caucus states - and by significant margins. We've also witnessed key GOP stakeholder Fox News try to derail Trump's campaign and fail miserably at it. Lots of top Republicans jumped on that bum-rush Trump bandwagon only to be damaged in turn when...

This is becoming something of an almost comfortable ritual at this point. Another week goes by, Donald Trump does or says something to generate a new round of headlines, everyone predicts that heÂ’s on the way out, and the next poll shows The Donald further ahead than ever. Then the veteran analysts are left staring at their laptops forlornly, stuck with the unenviable task of writing something to explain why. Once the first set of numbers came out which showed that not only was Trump on top of the GOP heap but was within striking distance of Hillary in the...

Actually the games have been going on for some time as they do every four years when the mega rich essentially elect our president through their super packs and media outlets. The “game” part of the process is how it is done causing the people to believe that they choose their president when they do not. I have told my students for years that the quickest way to understand our political system is to watch the movie “The Hunger Games.” The strategy is to herd all voters into their two camps called Republicans and Democrats excluding all other political parties,...

Donald Trump keeps on saying stupid, hateful things. About Mexicans, women, John McCain, Megyn Kelly ... And he keeps on leading the Republican presidential race. Gosh, could there be a correlation? If anything, Trump has consolidated a sizable lead in the Republican race since the big debate earlier this month, as the new CNN poll demonstrates. And he is the most trusted voice on the major issues, even winning plaudits from supporters of other candidates. What that means is the other Republican candidates can't afford to deviate much from what this guy is saying. Let's keep that in mind in...

Cruz Picking Up Money and Support According to the Dallas Morning News, Ted Cruz isn’t making things any easier for Rick Perry. Cruz has raised close to $900,000 from some of the same donors who donated to Perry’s 2012 campaign. Those same people have only donated a little over $370,000 to Perry this time. Cruz isn’t just raising money though, he is connecting with a lot of potential voters. With $14 million, Cruz’s campaign has raised more than any other Republican–he was the first candidate to officially declare, which gave him a head start on fundraising–and he’s dominated the market...

The 2016 Republican presidential primary field is unusually large and unusually unsettled, and the first debate earlier this month didn’t do much to change either of those things. So we gathered FiveThirtyEight’s political writers in Slack to talk about the state of the race. This is an edited transcript of the conversation. micah (Micah Cohen, senior editor): Harry and Nate, a Fox News poll released Sunday found Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz leading the Republican primary race, and a lot of people are saying the outsider/angry wing of the GOP is ascendant. Is something going on? The Republican...

Wishful thinking can come in many shapes and sizes, but history and present reality do readily tell us that Bernie Sanders is more likely to walk among us during the early stage of the presidential campaign as a prophet than as a messiah. And that is not such a bad thing, for martyrdom always seems to take place as precursor to major change; and this resolute honest New Yorker representing Vermont appears poised to bring inspirational change in the much-needed political transformation of American society. Yes; Americans, both the destitute and the destitute-in-waiting middle class do need a champion to...

It’s been 12 days since the first Republican presidential debate was broadcast on the Fox News Channel. Immediately following that event on the network’s The Kelly File, pollster Frank Luntz conducted a focus group on location in Cleveland, the site of the debate. According to the participants of his focus group, real estate mogul Donald Trump, the frontrunner of the race, fared poorly, but they gave a mixed response as to who was the strongest in the debate. Many of the respondents gave a favorable reactions to former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). former Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon...

Okay, so what happens after Trump? What happens if he fades away or decides he’s had enough and drops out? What do his angry, frustrated and fed-up supporters do? Do they also drop out? Early warning: This column has more questions than answers – usually not a good thing for someone who’s at least attempting to influence the conversation. But when writing or talking about Donald Trump and his run for the presidency, there are few easy, or obvious, answers to the many questions his candidacy raises. You’ve been warned. There is a civil war raging in the Republican Party,...

By far the biggest story of the summer is Donald Trump's surging candidacy for the U.S. presidency. It's obvious why. Hate him or love him, Donald Trump knows how to captivate the public's attention. He seems immune from being hurt; I want to examine why. What is it about Donald Trump that allows him to survive any occurrence that no conventional political candidate could? And, not only that, but to use these instances to further galvanize his base of supporters, while growing it? This summer, we have seen example after example of this. People were horrified when he questioned Sen....