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Keyword: larrysabato

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  • Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle

    11/05/2013 7:33:13 PM PST · by randita · 63 replies
    Newsmax ^ | 11/5/13 | Greg Richter
    Republican Ken Cuccinelli's unexpectedly strong showing in the Virginia governor's race will make it more difficult for moderate members of the GOP to pull the party toward the center, says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Polls had shown Cuccinelli down by 7 points to Democrat Terry McAuliffe, but Cuccinelli, a tea party favorite, led vote counts most of the night, with Clinton administration insider McAuliffe pulling out a late victory as bigger cities were counted. "Whether it's one vote or a million, you're governor for four years," Sabato said. Still, he said, "The conservative...
  • Look to the governors in 2016 (Not the Senators)

    08/18/2013 9:26:55 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 25 replies
    Hotair ^ | 08/18/2013 | Ed Morrissey
    Earlier this week, CNN asked me to write an op-ed on Ted Cruz, and whether he’s a realistic contender for the presidency. My reaction: Of course he is — but probably not in 2016. And for that matter, neither are the Republicans who seem to get the most mention for that position: No one doubts that Cruz has a bright future in the Republican Party, but that doesn’t mean the future is now.Cruz, like Rubio and Rand Paul, have only barely arrived on the national stage and are many years younger than their sell-by date. None of the three has...
  • 2016 President: Republican Outsiders Rising (From Sabato's Crystal Ball)

    08/15/2013 8:54:58 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 43 replies
    Center For Politics ^ | 08/14/2013 | Larry Sabato
    Our most recent rating of Republican presidential contenders features a top tier of three notably different candidates: A Midwestern governor (Scott Walker) who is known best by the activists who will help decide the nomination; a leading national figure (Chris Christie) who has irked conservatives; and a firebrand senator (Rand Paul) with devoted supporters who would shake up the party’s platform and, perhaps, identity.Chart 1: Updated Crystal Ball Republican presidential rankings First Tier Candidate Key Advantages Key Disadvantages Since Last Update Scott WalkerGovernor, WI •Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability •Too bland? Next Pawlenty?...
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker surges to top of GOP 2016 list

    04/20/2013 11:07:21 AM PDT · by gusopol3 · 47 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | April18, 2013 | Paul Bedard
    He doesn't get the attention of the Sunday talk shows, or Washington's political elite, but the Midwest's dragon slayer, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, is emerging in some Republican circles as the surprising favorite to win the GOP nomination for president in 2016. Untainted by scandal, far from Washington's voter-frustrating gridlock, and reinvigorated by his victory over foes who staged a recall vote, the conservative Walker is also viewed as the best candidate to sop up the Midwest white vote which, had Mitt Romney done better there, would have catapulted him into the Oval Office. But the best part in the...
  • Sabato: Obama's Convention Bounce Will Not Last

    09/10/2012 8:05:39 PM PDT · by NKP_Vet · 14 replies
    http;//www.newsmax.com ^ | September 10, 2012 | Jim Meyers and John Bachman
    The boost for President Obama in polls following the Democratic National Convention is a classic polling bounce which will fade in a few weeks, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato tells Newsmax. Sabato also says this year is the last gasp of four-day national conventions due to viewer disinterest. And he predicts that with few voters remaining undecided, the key to the November election will not be which side attracts swing voters but who energizes the base and gets out the vote.
  • The Long Slog: Projecting the Republican Race Through June

    02/16/2012 3:07:54 PM PST · by Michael van der Galien · 3 replies
    Had evangelical Christians had their way in 2006s Pennsylvania Senate election, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) would have been reelected in a landslide: among the quarter of the electorate that identified themselves as such, Santorum won 59% to 41%. The trouble for Santorum was that, of the non-evangelical three-fourths of the electorate, Santorum lost to his opponent, Democrat Bob Casey, by two to one. Santorum was defeated in that race by about 17 points one of the worst drubbings in modern history for an incumbent senator (see chart at this link). If anything, looking at a year when Santorum did...
  • 2012 electoral map as it stands

    04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT · by library user · 61 replies
    Reuters ^ | April 21, 2011 | by James Pethokoukis
    ~ EXCERPT ~ This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:Here is how the math works: Include the Leans states with the Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows:247 Democratic EVs, 180 Republican EVs,111 Undecided.Just counting Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows:196 Democratic EVs,170 Republican EVs,172 Undecided.Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.
  • Larry Sabato Says Watch West Virginia on Election Night Video

    11/01/2010 10:11:05 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 12 replies
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | November 1, 2010 | Brian
    Here is video of University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato this morning saying he believes the GOP will win the House by a wide margin. Sabato said the latest polling shows the Washington Senate race is going to be extremely close, and may be trending Republican, which would be an additional GOP gain to what he had as his final projection last week. Sabato said only West Virginia seems to be moving in the Democrats direction. He said that early on Election Night, if West Virginia winds up going to the GOP, he believes the GOP will win the Senate...
  • Larry Sabato Gives Final Midterm Predictions: GOP +55 in House, +8 in Senate Video

    10/28/2010 11:10:35 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 22 replies · 1+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 28, 2010 | Brian
    Here is video of University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato giving his Crystal Ball final predictions for the upcoming 2010 Midterm Elections. In his final predictions, Sabato said he believes Republicans will pickup 55-seats in the House, and 8-seats in the U.S. Senate. That would give the GOP control of the House, but two-seats short of taking control of the U.S. Senate. Sabato said this election is about the fundamentals of a bad economy and an unpopular President, and it was over a long time ago. He believes about 40% of American voters will turnout, fairly typical for a Midterm...
  • Larry Sabato: This is Not an Anti-Incumbent Year; Its an Anti-Democrat Year Video

    09/02/2010 6:02:16 PM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 19 replies · 1+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | September 2, 2010 | Brian
    Here is a video report that includes University of Virginia Political Science Professor Dr. Larry Sabato saying that this year has been mischaracterized as an anti-incumbent year. Instead, he said, Its an anti-Democrat year. Sabato is predicting right now that the GOP will gain 47-seats in the House to retake control.
  • Sixty Days to Go The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions (Sabato raises estimate of Dem losses)

    09/02/2010 4:59:37 AM PDT · by tlb · 28 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | Sep 2, 2010 | Larry J. Sabato
    The Democrats self-proclaimed Recovery Summer has become a term of derision. Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains. In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of...
  • Sabato Says Sharron Angle Likely to Win Tonight; Harry Reid In Deep Trouble in Nevada Video

    06/08/2010 10:33:40 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 17 replies · 20+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | June 8, 2010 | Brian
    Here is a video preview of the primary elections that take place today in 12 states. The GOP Primary in Nevada, and the Democrat runoff in Arkansas take center stage, along with Californias GOP primary. Larry Sabato says Sharron Angle is likely to be the GOP Nominee in Nevada. He also said Harry Reid is in deep trouble, not polling anywhere near the 50% that incumbents should be polling at a minimum, and will have a tough time winning in November. Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln looks likely to lose the runoff to Bill Halter in Arkansas.
  • Larry Sabato Analyzes Upcoming Political Races in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Texas - Video 10/4/09

    10/05/2009 5:20:02 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 1 replies · 331+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 5, 2009 | BrianinMO
    Here is video of University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato giving some analysis on upcoming races in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Texas. Sabato talked about Arlen Specter's chances in Pennsylvania, where he will face a stiff challenge from Democrat Joe Sestak. He is currently leading in polls against Sestak, and is supported by President Obama. . . . (VIDEO)
  • Obama's chance of winning big

    10/21/2008 8:10:06 AM PDT · by pissant · 40 replies · 1,373+ views
    BBC ^ | 10/21/08 | Larry Sabato
    The whisper of September has turned to a roar in October: Barack Obama may be on the verge of a landslide victory. A year ago, no one on the planet could have conceived of such a thing. After all, Democrats have elected just two American presidents since 1968, moderate white Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both by modest popular vote margins. In 2008 Democrats took a daring leap of faith and chose a far more liberal nominee who is the first African-American standard-bearer - no minor matter in a nation that is just 11% black and has been plagued...
  • Talk About Spin (AP says Hillary's handling of hostage situation made her look Presidential)

    12/01/2007 7:08:28 AM PST · by jdm · 119 replies · 147+ views
    Captain's Quarters ^ | Dec. 01, 2007 | Ed Morrissey
    Everyone expressed gratitude and relief at the end of the hostage crisis yesterday in Rochester, New Hampshire, when police arrested the disturbed man who created it. No one got hurt and a sick man will get the care he needs, and the community will receive protection from him as well. It demonstrated the competence and patience of the Rochester police department in resolving a standoff that only gained national attention because it took place in the campaign headquarters of Hillary Clinton. Somehow, later that evening, the Clinton campaign decided this makes Hillary look presidential, at least to Larry Sabato and...
  • Larry Sabato Doesnt Understand the Constitution

    11/01/2007 6:32:47 AM PDT · by Tolerance Sucks Rocks · 48 replies · 144+ views
    Townhall ^ | October 19, 2007 | Matt Mayer
    In an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times on October 10, 2007, University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato argues for scrapping our Constitution and replacing it with a new one. He couldnt be more wrong. In support of his call to redo the Constitution, Sabato trots out a quote from Thomas Jefferson positing that a constitution is only good for nineteen years. The quote comes from a letter Jefferson sent to James Madison on September 6, 1789. In his response, Madison raised several fundamental flaws to Jeffersons (and Sabatos) reasoning. The one most applicable to our times is this...
  • We Need a New Constitution [So Says Larry Sabato]

    10/10/2007 6:40:54 PM PDT · by seanrobins · 57 replies · 1,220+ views
    LA Times ^ | October 10, 2007 | Larry J. Sabato
    The presidential candidates are offering prescriptions for everything from Iraq to healthcare, but listen closely. Their fixes are situational and incremental. Meanwhile, the underlying structural problems in American politics and government are systemic and prevent us from solving our most intractable challenges. If we really want to make progress and achieve greater fairness as a society, it is time for elemental change. And we should start by looking at the Constitution, with the goal of holding a new Constitutional Convention. . . . A few examples: * Restoring the war powers balance. The framers split authority concerning matters of war-making...
  • Sabato: Hillary Has General Election Problems

    06/21/2007 4:40:59 PM PDT · by wagglebee · 96 replies · 2,417+ views
    NewsMax ^ | 6/21/07 | NewsMax
    In his latest Chrystal Ball newsletter Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginias Center for Politics and a widely respected expert on the American political scene, sees Hillary Clinton as a probable winner in the primaries and a probable loser in the general election.Noting that Hilary could easily survive a loss in the Iowa caucuses, Sabato warns that the road ahead for her is still full of ruts and potholes.That being said, her fate lies in whether the Democrats and the country - consider the big picture prior to voting in January and then November. "It's...
  • Larry Sabato Makes Senate Predictions

    11/02/2006 11:38:59 AM PST · by albie · 62 replies · 2,760+ views
    Larry Sabato has made his official list of Senate predictions on Newsmax. He pick Webb over Allen in Virginia. Does anyone know Sabatos' record of accuracy?
  • Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS

    11/02/2006 8:52:38 AM PST · by finnman69 · 147 replies · 4,312+ views
    Center for Politics ^ | 11/2/06 | Larry Sabato
    www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"Larry J. Sabato and David WassermanU.Va. Center for PoliticsNovember 2, 2006 Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several...
  • 'Speaker Pelosi' seems real possibility

    10/09/2006 9:01:33 AM PDT · by SmithL · 84 replies · 2,001+ views
    MediaNews ^ | 10/9/6 | Josh Richman
    Not long ago, "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi" sounded to many like little more than the rosy rhetoric of partisan Pollyannas. But Republican House leaders' scramble to control Rep. Mark Foley's sexual messaging fiasco has stoked already-burning fires of discontent over both congressional corruption -- two GOP congressmen have resigned in the past year, with the first now in prison -- and the party's support of the Bush administration's Iraq war effort. A 15-seat Democratic gain in the House no longer seems such a long shot. "It would be stunning if this (Foley) scandal were not reducing social conservative turnout in...
  • Pundit Sabato draws own critics after claims against Allen

    09/30/2006 7:45:46 AM PDT · by freespirited · 52 replies · 1,327+ views
    Virginian-Pilot ^ | 9/30/06 | BILL SIZEMORE
    He's a professor. He's a pundit. Now some critics are accusing him of being a provocateur. Larry Sabato, the Norfolk-bred political scientist who is among the most widely quoted academics in America, dropped a very large pebble into the already roiled pond of Virginia politics this week when he joined the debate over U.S. Sen. George Allen's racial attitudes. The resulting ripples have been spreading far and wide all week. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, made national news Monday when he alleged on the MSNBC television show "Hardball" that Allen, a Republican, used...
  • Larry Sabato: Fair-minded Professor or Partisan Hack?

    09/28/2006 4:49:51 PM PDT · by freespirited · 32 replies · 989+ views
    Vanity | 9/28/06 | Freespirited
    A Powerline blog entry posted here this morning started me thinking about the origins of this week's hit pieces on Senator Allen. I would like to call attention to a few excerpts from this week's deluge. NY Times 9/26/06: "Christopher Taylor, now an anthropology professor at the Birmingham campus of the University of Alabama, said he heard Mr. Allen use an epithet to describe African-Americans in the early 1980s. ...[He] initially wrote of his recollections in a private e-mail message to a **colleague** after the macaca incident. The message was eventually **forwarded to The New York Times**" According to Allens-A-team...
  • Larry Sabato Recants, Didn't Hear Allen

    09/27/2006 7:42:34 AM PDT · by truthandlife · 178 replies · 4,893+ views
    Newsmax ^ | 9/27/06 | Newsmax Staff
    One of Virginia's best-known political analysts said he had never personally heard Sen. George Allen use racial epithets, despite saying on television a day earlier that the senator "did use the n-word." Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Tuesday in an e-mail to The Associated Press, "I didn't personally hear GFA (Allen's initials) say the n-word. "My conclusion is based on the very credible testimony I have heard for weeks, mainly from people I personally know and knew in the '70s," Sabato wrote. Sabato, a classmate of Allen's at the University of Virginia...
  • Political scientist says he never heard Allen use racial slur (and deer head story falling apart)

    09/26/2006 7:18:39 PM PDT · by freespirited · 142 replies · 2,605+ views
    Daily Press ^ | 9/26/06 | BOB LEWIS
    One of Virginia's best-known political analysts said Tuesday that he had never personally heard Sen. George Allen use racial epithets, but insisted claims by former Allen teammates and acquaintances are valid. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said in an e-mail to The Associated Press, "I didn't personally hear GFA (Allen's initials) say the n-word. ... Also in interviews with the AP and Salon.com late Sunday, [former teammate Ken] Shelton claimed that on a hunting trip to Louisa County in 1973 or 1974, Allen stuffed the severed head of a female deer into the oversized...
  • Katherine Harris says failure to elect Christians will `legislate sin'

    08/25/2006 7:47:48 PM PDT · by Alex Murphy · 532 replies · 7,581+ views
    KRT Wire ^ | 8/25/2006 | Jim Stratton
    ORLANDO, Fla. _Rep. Katherine Harris said this week that God did not intend for the United States to be a "nation of secular laws" and that a failure to elect Christians to political office will allow lawmaking bodies to "legislate sin." The remarks, published in the weekly journal of the Florida Baptist State Convention, unleashed a torrent of criticism from political and religious officials. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., said she was "disgusted" by the comments "and deeply disappointed in Rep. Harris personally." Harris, Wasserman Schultz said, "clearly shows that she does not deserve to be a Representative . ....
  • Sabato: The Presidential Prizefight '08 (Ideology Versus Electability Part II: The Dems)

    01/19/2006 2:55:16 AM PST · by RWR8189 · 19 replies · 958+ views
    U. Va. Center for Politics ^ | January 19, 2006 | Larry Sabato
    In last week's installment of the Crystal Ball, we explored the myriad of possible Republican White House contenders for 2008, the lack of an obvious successor to President Bush, as well as the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries. This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century that the incumbent President or Vice President has not been running--the earlier examples were 1908, 1920, 1928, and 1952.And now to the Democrats. The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball's view, will be their burning desire to end...
  • Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Predicts Kerry Win

    11/02/2004 6:41:29 AM PST · by RightWingNY · 78 replies · 708+ views
    Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 11/2/04 | RightWingNY
    As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the...
  • THE REVOLUTION IS HERE(AMERICAN CANDIDATE SHOWTIME PREMIERS AUG.1,9PM-ET/PT)BOB KERREY ON BOARD

    08/01/2004 9:20:38 AM PDT · by fight_truth_decay · 2 replies · 500+ views
    Showtime ^ | Sunday August 1, 2004 | Showtime
    Ten candidates from across the country have been chosen to compete in Showtime Networks' unscripted and unprecedented reality series, AMERICAN CANDIDATE. The series focuses on six men and four women of various ages, backgrounds and political views, including Independents, Democrats, Republicans, Greens and Libertarians. AMERICAN CANDIDATE is hosted by Emmy Award-winning talk show host Montel Williams. The 10-episode, one-hour program is created by Academy Award-nominated and Emmy-winning documentary filmmaker R.J. Cutler ("The War Room," "American High," Showtime's FRESHMAN DIARIES) and executive produced by Cutler, Jay Roach (director of "Austin Powers in Goldmember," "Meet the Parents") and Tom Lassally ("Stay"). Week-by-week,...
  • Janklow Manslaughter Trial Begins Monday

    11/30/2003 12:58:12 PM PST · by Theodore R. · 14 replies · 281+ views
    AP ^ | 11-30-03 | Walker, Carson
    Janklow Manslaughter Trial Begins Monday By CARSON WALKER Associated Press Writer FLANDREAU, S.D. (AP) -- Bill Janklow, a former four-term South Dakota governor and the state's only congressman, returns to his boyhood hometown Monday to face a trial that may decide his political future. The 64-year-old is charged with speeding, running a stop sign, reckless driving and manslaughter in an Aug. 16 accident that killed a motorcyclist at a rural intersection in South Dakota. If convicted of manslaughter, he could face up to 10 years in prison, as well as a House ethics committee investigation. Under the committee's rules, any...
  • Senate Could Lose Voice of Moderation -- {John Breaux, D-LA}

    11/10/2003 6:22:42 AM PST · by Theodore R. · 26 replies · 231+ views
    Alexandria, LA, Daily Town Talk ^ | 11-10-03 | Not given, John Hill
    <p>WASHINGTON - If one of the Senate's most effective moderates decides not to seek re-election, action on issues from Medicare to taxes could be in jeopardy.</p> <p>Seniors might never see their prescription drug bills drop. Workers might be without health insurance between jobs. Welfare moms might not get training for work.</p>
  • In Politics, It Pays to Have a Non-controversial Spouse, Says Louisiana Reporter

    10/26/2003 12:59:28 PM PST · by Theodore R. · 1 replies · 178+ views
    Shreveport, LA, Times ^ | 10-26-03 | Hill, John
    <p>BATON ROUGE - Spouses can become an issue in politics.</p> <p>Just look at Hillary Rodham Clinton.</p> <p>"Rarely does a spouse make a difference," said LSU political scientist Wayne Parent. "But if an issue is made of the spouse, it can."</p>
  • The Old College Try:Republican Style (2004 Pres Outlook)

    08/12/2003 6:40:45 PM PDT · by NYC Republican · 4 replies · 231+ views
    Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 8/12/03 | Larry Sabato
    In the June 2003 Crystal Ball, we manipulated the Electoral College to find a way for Democrats to compete, and potentially win, in November 2004. In this month's Crystal Ball musing, we turn the tables. How should George W. Bush approach his old friend, the Electoral College? The President has not forgotten that the College, and the Supreme Court, handed him the Oval Office, despite a popular vote deficit of almost 540,000 votes. And to be sure, Bush, Karl Rove, and company are carefully examining every potential combination of states to deliver a second term, with or without a popular...