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Here is video of University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato giving some analysis on upcoming races in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Texas. Sabato talked about Arlen Specter's chances in Pennsylvania, where he will face a stiff challenge from Democrat Joe Sestak. He is currently leading in polls against Sestak, and is supported by President Obama. . . . (VIDEO)

The whisper of September has turned to a roar in October: Barack Obama may be on the verge of a landslide victory. A year ago, no one on the planet could have conceived of such a thing. After all, Democrats have elected just two American presidents since 1968, moderate white Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both by modest popular vote margins. In 2008 Democrats took a daring leap of faith and chose a far more liberal nominee who is the first African-American standard-bearer - no minor matter in a nation that is just 11% black and has been plagued...

Everyone expressed gratitude and relief at the end of the hostage crisis yesterday in Rochester, New Hampshire, when police arrested the disturbed man who created it. No one got hurt and a sick man will get the care he needs, and the community will receive protection from him as well. It demonstrated the competence and patience of the Rochester police department in resolving a standoff that only gained national attention because it took place in the campaign headquarters of Hillary Clinton. Somehow, later that evening, the Clinton campaign decided this makes Hillary look presidential, at least to Larry Sabato and...

In an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times on October 10, 2007, University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato argues for scrapping our Constitution and replacing it with a new one. He couldn’t be more wrong. In support of his call to redo the Constitution, Sabato trots out a quote from Thomas Jefferson positing that a constitution is only good for nineteen years. The quote comes from a letter Jefferson sent to James Madison on September 6, 1789. In his response, Madison raised several fundamental flaws to Jefferson’s (and Sabato’s) reasoning. The one most applicable to our times is this...

The presidential candidates are offering prescriptions for everything from Iraq to healthcare, but listen closely. Their fixes are situational and incremental. Meanwhile, the underlying structural problems in American politics and government are systemic and prevent us from solving our most intractable challenges. If we really want to make progress and achieve greater fairness as a society, it is time for elemental change. And we should start by looking at the Constitution, with the goal of holding a new Constitutional Convention. . . . A few examples: * Restoring the war powers balance. The framers split authority concerning matters of war-making...

In his latest Chrystal Ball newsletter Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and a widely respected expert on the American political scene, sees Hillary Clinton as a probable winner in the primaries and a probable loser in the general election.Noting that Hilary could easily survive a loss in the Iowa caucuses, Sabato warns that the road ahead for her is still full of ruts and potholes.That being said, her fate lies in whether the Democrats – and the country - consider the big picture prior to voting in January and then November. "It's...

Larry Sabato has made his official list of Senate predictions on Newsmax. He pick Webb over Allen in Virginia. Does anyone know Sabatos' record of accuracy?

www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"Larry J. Sabato and David WassermanU.Va. Center for PoliticsNovember 2, 2006 Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several...

Not long ago, "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi" sounded to many like little more than the rosy rhetoric of partisan Pollyannas. But Republican House leaders' scramble to control Rep. Mark Foley's sexual messaging fiasco has stoked already-burning fires of discontent over both congressional corruption -- two GOP congressmen have resigned in the past year, with the first now in prison -- and the party's support of the Bush administration's Iraq war effort. A 15-seat Democratic gain in the House no longer seems such a long shot. "It would be stunning if this (Foley) scandal were not reducing social conservative turnout in...

He's a professor. He's a pundit. Now some critics are accusing him of being a provocateur. Larry Sabato, the Norfolk-bred political scientist who is among the most widely quoted academics in America, dropped a very large pebble into the already roiled pond of Virginia politics this week when he joined the debate over U.S. Sen. George Allen's racial attitudes. The resulting ripples have been spreading far and wide all week. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, made national news Monday when he alleged on the MSNBC television show "Hardball" that Allen, a Republican, used...

A Powerline blog entry posted here this morning started me thinking about the origins of this week's hit pieces on Senator Allen. I would like to call attention to a few excerpts from this week's deluge. NY Times 9/26/06: "Christopher Taylor, now an anthropology professor at the Birmingham campus of the University of Alabama, said he heard Mr. Allen use an epithet to describe African-Americans in the early 1980’s. ...[He] initially wrote of his recollections in a private e-mail message to a **colleague** after the “macaca” incident. The message was eventually **forwarded to The New York Times**" According to Allens-A-team...

One of Virginia's best-known political analysts said he had never personally heard Sen. George Allen use racial epithets, despite saying on television a day earlier that the senator "did use the n-word." Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Tuesday in an e-mail to The Associated Press, "I didn't personally hear GFA (Allen's initials) say the n-word. "My conclusion is based on the very credible testimony I have heard for weeks, mainly from people I personally know and knew in the '70s," Sabato wrote. Sabato, a classmate of Allen's at the University of Virginia...

One of Virginia's best-known political analysts said Tuesday that he had never personally heard Sen. George Allen use racial epithets, but insisted claims by former Allen teammates and acquaintances are valid. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said in an e-mail to The Associated Press, "I didn't personally hear GFA (Allen's initials) say the n-word. ... Also in interviews with the AP and Salon.com late Sunday, [former teammate Ken] Shelton claimed that on a hunting trip to Louisa County in 1973 or 1974, Allen stuffed the severed head of a female deer into the oversized...

ORLANDO, Fla. _Rep. Katherine Harris said this week that God did not intend for the United States to be a "nation of secular laws" and that a failure to elect Christians to political office will allow lawmaking bodies to "legislate sin." The remarks, published in the weekly journal of the Florida Baptist State Convention, unleashed a torrent of criticism from political and religious officials. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., said she was "disgusted" by the comments "and deeply disappointed in Rep. Harris personally." Harris, Wasserman Schultz said, "clearly shows that she does not deserve to be a Representative . ....

In last week's installment of the Crystal Ball, we explored the myriad of possible Republican White House contenders for 2008, the lack of an obvious successor to President Bush, as well as the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries. This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century that the incumbent President or Vice President has not been running--the earlier examples were 1908, 1920, 1928, and 1952.And now to the Democrats. The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball's view, will be their burning desire to end...

As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the...

Ten candidates from across the country have been chosen to compete in Showtime Networks' unscripted and unprecedented reality series, AMERICAN CANDIDATE. The series focuses on six men and four women of various ages, backgrounds and political views, including Independents, Democrats, Republicans, Greens and Libertarians. AMERICAN CANDIDATE is hosted by Emmy® Award-winning talk show host Montel Williams. The 10-episode, one-hour program is created by Academy Award®-nominated and Emmy®-winning documentary filmmaker R.J. Cutler ("The War Room," "American High," Showtime's FRESHMAN DIARIES) and executive produced by Cutler, Jay Roach (director of "Austin Powers in Goldmember," "Meet the Parents") and Tom Lassally ("Stay"). Week-by-week,...

Janklow Manslaughter Trial Begins Monday By CARSON WALKER Associated Press Writer FLANDREAU, S.D. (AP) -- Bill Janklow, a former four-term South Dakota governor and the state's only congressman, returns to his boyhood hometown Monday to face a trial that may decide his political future. The 64-year-old is charged with speeding, running a stop sign, reckless driving and manslaughter in an Aug. 16 accident that killed a motorcyclist at a rural intersection in South Dakota. If convicted of manslaughter, he could face up to 10 years in prison, as well as a House ethics committee investigation. Under the committee's rules, any...

<p>WASHINGTON - If one of the Senate's most effective moderates decides not to seek re-election, action on issues from Medicare to taxes could be in jeopardy.</p> <p>Seniors might never see their prescription drug bills drop. Workers might be without health insurance between jobs. Welfare moms might not get training for work.</p>

<p>BATON ROUGE - Spouses can become an issue in politics.</p> <p>Just look at Hillary Rodham Clinton.</p> <p>"Rarely does a spouse make a difference," said LSU political scientist Wayne Parent. "But if an issue is made of the spouse, it can."</p>

In the June 2003 Crystal Ball, we manipulated the Electoral College to find a way for Democrats to compete, and potentially win, in November 2004. In this month's Crystal Ball musing, we turn the tables. How should George W. Bush approach his old friend, the Electoral College? The President has not forgotten that the College, and the Supreme Court, handed him the Oval Office, despite a popular vote deficit of almost 540,000 votes. And to be sure, Bush, Karl Rove, and company are carefully examining every potential combination of states to deliver a second term, with or without a popular...