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Keyword: larrysabato

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  • Sorry Larry but you’re wrong again; there is no Blue Wave coming for Democrats

    02/19/2018 10:27:36 AM PST · by jmaroneps37 · 29 replies
    vanity | February 19, 2018 | Kevin Collins
    There will be no return of power for the Democrats any time soon. There is no Blue Wave coming. The numbers being ignored by Democrats and their pollsters say this very clearly. Because the “Blue Wave” hogwash is so widespread brevity demands that only one “Democrat expert’s” foolishness be followed and debunked. Larry Sabato will do. Almost immediately after the stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton Larry Sabato, one of the left’s trusted “experts”, had the good sense and grace to admit he was totally wrong in his “oh so confident” prediction that Clinton would easily win the election. In his...
  • Hey Larry, the RNC’s hatred for Trump is a big reason why he is on top

    11/09/2015 6:59:48 AM PST · by Oldpuppymax · 3 replies
    Coach is Right ^ | 11/9/15 | Kevin "Coach" Collins
    Like almost all established political prognosticators, Larry Sabato is befuddled by the meteoric rise of Donald Trump to the top of the Republican Party’s presidential primary field. That Trump, who is not a politician, can merely get into the arena, do a few deep knee bends and pummel one professional politician after another seems to have him stupefied. Although he has not commented on the victory of Matt Bevin in Kentucky yet, that race has to have had him tied in knots as well. Sabato called Bevin, who won with 14 points more than the polls Sabato relies on, a...
  • Sabato: Trump 'Un-Nominatable'; Names First Tier

    08/14/2015 8:01:19 PM PDT · by NKP_Vet · 60 replies ^ | August 13, 2015 | Sandy Fitzgerald
    Donald Trump may be the current GOP front-runner, but it's "doubtful in the extreme" that he will become the eventual nominee, let alone president, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato says. "The Summer of Trump is unlikely to turn into a Year of Trump," Sabato, who heads the university's Center for Politics, writes in a "Crystal Ball" report released Thursday, in which he ranks the presidential candidates while putting Trump into a category of his own: "The Un-Nominatable Front-runner." "Trump is an early season fling for many people, fun while it lasts but doomed to break up somewhere along...
  • Sabato’s Final Predictions: Republicans Pick Up 8 Seats In The Senate

    11/03/2014 11:59:16 PM PST · by Bettyprob · 44 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | 11/03/2014 | Derek Hunter
    Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and one of the most widely respected political analysts in the country, has come out with his final predictions for the 2014 midterms, and he predicts a good night for Republicans. In his “Crystal Ball” picks, Sabato see an 8-seat pick-up for Republicans in the Senate, which would give them a 2-seat majority.
  • Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle

    11/05/2013 7:33:13 PM PST · by randita · 63 replies
    Newsmax ^ | 11/5/13 | Greg Richter
    Republican Ken Cuccinelli's unexpectedly strong showing in the Virginia governor's race will make it more difficult for moderate members of the GOP to pull the party toward the center, says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Polls had shown Cuccinelli down by 7 points to Democrat Terry McAuliffe, but Cuccinelli, a tea party favorite, led vote counts most of the night, with Clinton administration insider McAuliffe pulling out a late victory as bigger cities were counted. "Whether it's one vote or a million, you're governor for four years," Sabato said. Still, he said, "The conservative...
  • Look to the governors in 2016 (Not the Senators)

    08/18/2013 9:26:55 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 25 replies
    Hotair ^ | 08/18/2013 | Ed Morrissey
    Earlier this week, CNN asked me to write an op-ed on Ted Cruz, and whether he’s a realistic contender for the presidency. My reaction: Of course he is — but probably not in 2016. And for that matter, neither are the Republicans who seem to get the most mention for that position: No one doubts that Cruz has a bright future in the Republican Party, but that doesn’t mean the future is now.Cruz, like Rubio and Rand Paul, have only barely arrived on the national stage and are many years younger than their sell-by date. None of the three has...
  • 2016 President: Republican Outsiders Rising (From Sabato's Crystal Ball)

    08/15/2013 8:54:58 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 43 replies
    Center For Politics ^ | 08/14/2013 | Larry Sabato
    Our most recent rating of Republican presidential contenders features a top tier of three notably different candidates: A Midwestern governor (Scott Walker) who is known best by the activists who will help decide the nomination; a leading national figure (Chris Christie) who has irked conservatives; and a firebrand senator (Rand Paul) with devoted supporters who would shake up the party’s platform and, perhaps, identity.Chart 1: Updated Crystal Ball Republican presidential rankings First Tier Candidate Key Advantages Key Disadvantages Since Last Update Scott WalkerGovernor, WI •Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability •Too bland? Next Pawlenty?...
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker surges to top of GOP 2016 list

    04/20/2013 11:07:21 AM PDT · by gusopol3 · 47 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | April18, 2013 | Paul Bedard
    He doesn't get the attention of the Sunday talk shows, or Washington's political elite, but the Midwest's dragon slayer, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, is emerging in some Republican circles as the surprising favorite to win the GOP nomination for president in 2016. Untainted by scandal, far from Washington's voter-frustrating gridlock, and reinvigorated by his victory over foes who staged a recall vote, the conservative Walker is also viewed as the best candidate to sop up the Midwest white vote which, had Mitt Romney done better there, would have catapulted him into the Oval Office. But the best part in the...
  • Sabato: Obama's Convention Bounce Will Not Last

    09/10/2012 8:05:39 PM PDT · by NKP_Vet · 14 replies
    http;// ^ | September 10, 2012 | Jim Meyers and John Bachman
    The boost for President Obama in polls following the Democratic National Convention is a “classic polling bounce” which will fade in a few weeks, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato tells Newsmax. Sabato also says this year is the “last gasp” of four-day national conventions due to viewer disinterest. And he predicts that with few voters remaining undecided, the key to the November election will not be which side attracts swing voters but who energizes the base and gets out the vote.
  • The Long Slog: Projecting the Republican Race Through June

    02/16/2012 3:07:54 PM PST · by Michael van der Galien · 3 replies
    Had evangelical Christians had their way in 2006’s Pennsylvania Senate election, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) would have been reelected in a landslide: among the quarter of the electorate that identified themselves as such, Santorum won 59% to 41%. The trouble for Santorum was that, of the non-evangelical three-fourths of the electorate, Santorum lost to his opponent, Democrat Bob Casey, by two to one. Santorum was defeated in that race by about 17 points — one of the worst drubbings in modern history for an incumbent senator (see chart at this link). If anything, looking at a year when Santorum did...
  • 2012 electoral map — as it stands

    04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT · by library user · 61 replies
    Reuters ^ | April 21, 2011 | by James Pethokoukis
    ~ EXCERPT ~ This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:Here is how the math works: Include the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs,  180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.
  • Larry Sabato Says Watch West Virginia on Election Night – Video

    11/01/2010 10:11:05 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 12 replies
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | November 1, 2010 | Brian
    Here is video of University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato this morning saying he believes the GOP will win the House by “a wide margin.” Sabato said the latest polling shows the Washington Senate race is going to be “extremely close,” and may be trending Republican, which would be an additional GOP gain to what he had as his final projection last week. Sabato said only West Virginia seems to be moving in the Democrats’ direction. He said that early on Election Night, if West Virginia winds up going to the GOP, he believes the GOP “will win the Senate...
  • Larry Sabato Gives Final Midterm Predictions: GOP +55 in House, +8 in Senate – Video

    10/28/2010 11:10:35 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 22 replies · 1+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 28, 2010 | Brian
    Here is video of University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato giving his “Crystal Ball” final predictions for the upcoming 2010 Midterm Elections. In his final predictions, Sabato said he believes Republicans will pickup 55-seats in the House, and 8-seats in the U.S. Senate. That would give the GOP control of the House, but two-seats short of taking control of the U.S. Senate. Sabato said this election is “about the fundamentals” of a bad economy and an unpopular President, and “it was over a long time ago.” He believes about 40% of American voters will turnout, fairly typical for a Midterm...
  • Larry Sabato: This is “Not an Anti-Incumbent Year; It’s an Anti-Democrat Year” – Video

    09/02/2010 6:02:16 PM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 19 replies · 1+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | September 2, 2010 | Brian
    Here is a video report that includes University of Virginia Political Science Professor Dr. Larry Sabato saying that this year has been “mischaracterized as an anti-incumbent year.” Instead, he said, “It’s an anti-Democrat year.” Sabato is predicting right now that the GOP will gain 47-seats in the House to retake control.
  • Sixty Days to Go The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions (Sabato raises estimate of Dem losses)

    09/02/2010 4:59:37 AM PDT · by tlb · 28 replies
    Center for Politics ^ | Sep 2, 2010 | Larry J. Sabato
    The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision. Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains. In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of...
  • Sabato Says Sharron Angle Likely to Win Tonight; Harry Reid “In Deep Trouble” in Nevada – Video

    06/08/2010 10:33:40 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 17 replies · 20+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | June 8, 2010 | Brian
    Here is a video preview of the primary elections that take place today in 12 states. The GOP Primary in Nevada, and the Democrat runoff in Arkansas take center stage, along with California’s GOP primary. Larry Sabato says Sharron Angle is likely to be the GOP Nominee in Nevada. He also said Harry Reid is “in deep trouble,” not polling anywhere near the 50% that incumbents should be polling at a minimum, and will have a tough time winning in November. Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln looks likely to lose the runoff to Bill Halter in Arkansas.
  • Larry Sabato Analyzes Upcoming Political Races in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Texas - Video 10/4/09

    10/05/2009 5:20:02 AM PDT · by Federalist Patriot · 1 replies · 331+ views
    Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 5, 2009 | BrianinMO
    Here is video of University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato giving some analysis on upcoming races in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Texas. Sabato talked about Arlen Specter's chances in Pennsylvania, where he will face a stiff challenge from Democrat Joe Sestak. He is currently leading in polls against Sestak, and is supported by President Obama. . . . (VIDEO)
  • Obama's chance of winning big

    10/21/2008 8:10:06 AM PDT · by pissant · 40 replies · 1,373+ views
    BBC ^ | 10/21/08 | Larry Sabato
    The whisper of September has turned to a roar in October: Barack Obama may be on the verge of a landslide victory. A year ago, no one on the planet could have conceived of such a thing. After all, Democrats have elected just two American presidents since 1968, moderate white Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both by modest popular vote margins. In 2008 Democrats took a daring leap of faith and chose a far more liberal nominee who is the first African-American standard-bearer - no minor matter in a nation that is just 11% black and has been plagued...
  • Talk About Spin (AP says Hillary's handling of hostage situation made her look Presidential)

    12/01/2007 7:08:28 AM PST · by jdm · 119 replies · 147+ views
    Captain's Quarters ^ | Dec. 01, 2007 | Ed Morrissey
    Everyone expressed gratitude and relief at the end of the hostage crisis yesterday in Rochester, New Hampshire, when police arrested the disturbed man who created it. No one got hurt and a sick man will get the care he needs, and the community will receive protection from him as well. It demonstrated the competence and patience of the Rochester police department in resolving a standoff that only gained national attention because it took place in the campaign headquarters of Hillary Clinton. Somehow, later that evening, the Clinton campaign decided this makes Hillary look presidential, at least to Larry Sabato and...
  • Larry Sabato Doesn’t Understand the Constitution

    11/01/2007 6:32:47 AM PDT · by Tolerance Sucks Rocks · 48 replies · 144+ views
    Townhall ^ | October 19, 2007 | Matt Mayer
    In an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times on October 10, 2007, University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato argues for scrapping our Constitution and replacing it with a new one. He couldn’t be more wrong. In support of his call to redo the Constitution, Sabato trots out a quote from Thomas Jefferson positing that a constitution is only good for nineteen years. The quote comes from a letter Jefferson sent to James Madison on September 6, 1789. In his response, Madison raised several fundamental flaws to Jefferson’s (and Sabato’s) reasoning. The one most applicable to our times is this...