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A new CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday shows Donald Trump opening leads over Hillary Clinton in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio. Clinton enjoyed a significant post-convention bump earlier in the summer, leading Trump in Florida by 7 points in one July poll, but this latest survey shows Trump ahead among likely voters in the Sunshine State, 47 percent to 44 percent. In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by 4 points in a poll last month, but now she lags behind with just 41 percent to his 46 percent support. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, meanwhile, pulls 6 percent in Florida...

Donald Trump is leading his rivals in Nevada, a state where Hillary Clinton was leading the pack in July, in a four-way Monmouth University poll released Wednesday. The Republican presidential nominee has 44% support of voters while his Democratic rival is at 42%, within the poll's margin of sampling error. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson stands at 8% and the state's "none of these candidates" option received 3% of support. "The race in Nevada is still tight, but the momentum has swung toward Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. The poll was conducted September 11...

Finding the patterns: After going to the Democratic contender for more than 20 years, some analysts wonder if Pennsylvania could swing back to the GOP for a Donald Trump victory. Are they giving enough credit to the state's Democratic strongholds? Pennsylvania is a big prize in the electoral college that has belonged to Democrats for more than two decades, but some analysts and local politicians are wondering if the odd circumstances surrounding the 2016 election could shift the state into the red. As Pennsylvania has consistently picked Democrats for president since electing Bill Clinton in 1992, many considered Hillary Clinton...

With a new poll showing Donald Trump ahead by four points in Florida (46-42), he now inches ahead by one-tenth of one percent in the Real Clear Politics average. With Hillary Clinton’s email troubles and new concerns over her health, Trump could continue to rise, provided he sticks to his script. That is never a certainty. First, we should all wish Secretary Clinton a quick recovery. No one should want their candidate to benefit from an opponent’s medical issue. On something as serious as a person’s health, the Basket of Deplorables should be empty. JMC Analytics and Polling, based in...

Of all the states once seen as clearly in Hillary Clinton’s column, a new survey identifies the one perhaps most likely to tip to Donald Trump — and that state is Maine. A Colby College-Boston Globe poll released Tuesday shows the presidential race in Maine is now within the margin of error, with Clinton leading Trump, 42 percent to 39 percent. Also significant: The poll of likely voters, conducted last week by SurveyUSA, showed only a small portion of respondents, 5 percent, remain undecided less than eight weeks before Election Day. Trump’s ascendancy in Maine is largely due to his...

To venture the prediction that Donald Trump is a sure bet to be elected President in November sounds about as outlandish, perhaps even ludicrous and delusional as anything coming out of the mouth of the candidate. Polls, on the average, as tracked by RealClearPolitics and the Huffington Post, along with prediction markets like PredicIt and the Iowa Electronic Market, as well as several models featured at the recent meeting of the American Political Science Association all agree that Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite to win. One model, however, begs to differ. It is one that, with slight variations, has...

For this automated poll, a sample of likely households was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Florida, and there were 781 completed responses to six poll questions The survey was conducted September 7-8. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.5%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 69-13-13-6% white/black/Hispanic/”other”, while the party registration of respondents was 43-39% Democratic/Republican (18% Independents). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 40% from Central Florida, 17% from North Florida, 24% from South Florida, 16% from South Central Florida, and 3% from the “university”...

Republican Donald Trump appears to have carved out a wider path to the White House as a number of states, including Florida and Ohio, are no longer considered likely wins for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project released on Saturday. The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting patterns under different election scenarios, still shows Clinton would have the best chance of winning the presidency if the election were held today. Yet Trump has caught up to her level of support in several states. Clinton now has an 83...

Hillary Clinton's plan to win the presidency has largely consisted of standing back and letting Donald Trump self-destruct. That doesn't seem to be working anymore. The latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows the Republican candidate steadily closing the gap with his Democratic opponent. Clinton is now leading Trump by less than 3 percentage points — 45.6% to 42.9% — down from 9 points right after the Democratic National Convention in July. Because of the way the US electorate is distributed, Clinton still has a substantial edge over Trump. To clinch the deal, she only needs to win 41 electoral votes in...

Once resigned to a November defeat, swing state Republicans are increasingly optimistic about Donald Trump’s chances now that the GOP presidential nominee has closed a once-yawning deficit in the polls against Hillary Clinton. That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, operatives and strategists in 11 battleground states, 10 of which President Barack Obama carried in 2012. While a majority of GOP insiders still say Clinton would carry their state if the election were held today, significantly more Republicans now say Trump would win than even just a few weeks ago. But despite Trump’s improving prospects, GOP...

Hillary Clinton’s prospects for a landslide victory have slid. Democrats’ attempts to take back the House remain a steeply uphill battle. And Americans are still worried about the threat of terrorism.This is HuffPollster for Friday, September 9, 2016. FLORIDA, OHIO, NORTH CAROLINA REMAIN CLOSE CONTESTS - National polls have shown Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump eroding slightly in the first week of September, and now it looks like a trio of crucial swing states might be following suit. Florida - A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found Clinton and Trump tied at 47-47 in a two-way race, and 43-43 in...

Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, according to a new poll – but is this a canary in the coalmine or a skewed survey? The Republican leads by 45 per cent to 43 per cent in a national CNN/ORC survey published on Tuesday. It shows the two candidates provoke large gaps by gender, age, race and education. "The topsy-turvy campaign for the president has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not," says CNN. So...

The highly accurate Emerson College Poll Emerson College Polling University finds Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in Deep Blue New England, but will be forced to defend New Jersey and Rhode Island. Among Independents, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton in Rhode Island (+20), Massachusetts (+8) and New Jersey (+4 points), while she holds the edge in Vermont (+22 points), Maine (+12), Connecticut (+9) and New Hampshire (+2). As Figure 1 depicts, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Trump ranges from a high of 21 points in Vermont (47% to 26%) to a low of just 3% in Rhode Island...

Fox Business Network host Stuart Varney interviews RCP cofounder Tom Bevan about STUART VARNEY: Tom, this is the start of the fourth week of what I am calling the New Trump. He appears to be narrowing the gap. According to RCP is that accurate? TOM BEVAN: Absolutely. Clinton left her convention and recieved a bounce, and in both of our averages -- the two way and the four way -- She was ahead by over 7%. She got up to a 7.5, almost 8% lead over Trump. And that lead has now -- that lead has been whittled down to...

As we’ve been tracking the national polls over the past few weeks and examining the trends (particularly the Morning Consult survey) I’ve been holding back from drawing any firm conclusions while offering everyone a single piece of advice: Wait until we shift to polling likely voters. That takes place after Labor Day for most of the larger polling groups and we’re now in the final phase of the game. With 62 days to go until the election, the CNN/ORC survey is out with their first poll of likely voters and Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton inside the margin of error...

Debate Moderator Chris Wallace Not My Job to Be ‘ Truth Squad ’ If Candidates Lie

Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-donald-trump-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-polls-latest-a7225971.html

Buoyed by an uptick in national polling, Donald Trump is expected on Wednesday to outline the reasons he still thinks he can win heavily Democratic New York as he accepts the small but influential Conservative Party’s nomination for president. Trump, who will deliver an evening address as the Conservatives wind up their convention at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square, “thinks he can win New York, as difficult as that may seem to people out there, if the stars align correctly,’’ a senior Trump campaign operative told The Post. “New York means a lot to Mr. Trump and he has...

It's hard to think of a more irresistible morsel of dubious conventional wisdom than the claim that, driven by demographic change, the presidential electoral map now greatly favors the Democrats. The latest propagation of this myth is found in a long piece by National Review Online's chief political correspondent, Tim Alberta ("Does Donald Trump Have a Path to 270?"), from which Mark Levin read aloud at great length during his radio program on Tuesday. Levin, who has yet to say how he'll cast his vote for president, framed Alberta's piece as being authoritative in portraying dire straits for Donald Trump....

Will Donald Trump’s pivot on immigration and his trip to Mexico change the way Hispanic voters view him? I don’t know. But quite apart from anything Trump is doing, Hispanics view Hillary Clinton less favorably than they did earlier this year. According to the Washington Post, a new Latino Decisions poll found that 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they will definitely vote for Clinton or were leaning towards doing so. That’s not a bad number, but it’s down 6 points from April. Moreover, the same survey found that only 55 percent of Hispanics view Clinton favorably. That’s down...