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President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents. While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind...

Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind." The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large. Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes." "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins...

Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times. Steven Rattner wrote that Ray Fair of Yale favors Trump to win based on a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates. The model predicted Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote margin within a fraction of a percentage point and got within two-tenths of a point for his 2012 vote share, Rattner, who served as a counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, added. The model...

teven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind." The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large. Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes." "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins...

The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind. But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large. One of the first — and perhaps still the best — of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most...

According to the Salisbury Post: _________________________________________ For several decades one economist has been tracking the relationship between the economy and presidential elections. His name is Ray Fair, of Yale University, and his updated book on this work, simply titled “Predicting Presidential Elections,” just hit the bookstands. Now Fair doesn’t claim that only economics matters to how we vote. But he does argue that economics is very, very important, and he has put his model of presidential election predictions to the test for almost of century of contests. Before I tell you how good Fair’s predictions have been, let’s see what...

THINGS are looking up for Barack Obama. You might not think so, given the flow of news lately. His foreign policy has met with limited success, at best. And, back home, unemployment is mired at 9.6 percent. Earlier this month, in a major political blow, Democrats lost more than 60 seats and control of the House of Representatives. So what is there for Mr. Obama and his supporters to cheer about? Try this: Based on the facts at hand right now, Mr. Obama is likely to win the 2012 election in a landslide. That, at least, is the prediction of...

Economic models predict clear Obama win in November Fri Aug 1, 2008 11:34am EDT By Alister Bull WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It really is the economy, stupid! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November. Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates. Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November --...

Aug. 29, 2004— A well-known Yale economist has written a book using the mathematical technique of regression to predict the outcome of presidential elections. Ray C. Fair's Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things grew out of his 1978 paper that provides quite accurate descriptions of these quadrennial elections dating back to 1916. Before getting to his very surprising prediction for this November (with which I disagree), let me sketch the idea behind the technique. To see how an adult son's height, for example, relates to his father's height, first find a random collection of father-son pairs. For each pair, measure...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President George W. Bush. "If this election follows historical patterns, it looks very likely that Bush is going to win," said Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote. Current polls show a very close race with many suggesting that Democratic nominee John Kerry may be slightly ahead. There...

Economic Models Predict Bush Election Win 3 minutes ago Add Politics to My Yahoo! By Alan Elsner WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President Bush (news - web sites). "If this election follows historical patterns, it looks very likely that Bush is going to win," said Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote. Current...

As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy. My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5 percent of the two-party votes.The polls are suggesting a much closer race. Polls are notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election, and there is a limit to how much you want to trust polls.Why should we trust your equation, which seems unusually reductive? It has done well historically. The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points.In your book ''Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,''...

NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide. In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small." Fair, who claims to...

Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins By E&P Staff Published: August 11, 2004 NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide. In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes...

If we knew gross domestic product would run at 4 percent, industrial supply at record levels, basic inflation at less-than 1 percent, real disposable income at 3.5 percent, gold around $400 and the 10-year Treasury bond just above 4 percent -- and we knew these performance results would last for many years -- we would be very happy indeed. Why then is everyone suggesting that 4 percent GDP -- the just-released mark for last year's fourth quarter -- represents an economic slowdown? It's all blather. Not only is such alarmism uncalled for, but the basic components inside the GDP report...