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Swing States, Battlegrounds and the 2012 Map Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2012 · 3:37 PM EDT Everyone has an opinion about swing states. I figured it was time to explain how I see the presidential map. My approach isn’t based solely on statistics, though numbers matter a great deal. (I suppose this means that while I admire Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s approach to baseball, I also think that non-quantifiable considerations are part of the analytical mix.) When I use the term “swing states,” I am referring to those states that in a “neutral” landscape are likely to be...

This write-up from the Hill on a recent Pennsylvania poll is pretty similar to many others these days: President Obama is retaining his commanding lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, topping the Republican presidential nominee by 12 points in a poll released Wednesday by Franklin & Marshall College. Obama would win the favor of 48 percent of Keystone State voters, versus just 36 percent for Romney, according to the poll.  And polls like these are producing frames like these, from Charles Babington of the AP: …Republican presidential nominees have lost (Pennsylvania) five straight times despite substantial efforts. Some independent analysts say...

NBC reports: Today, we’re unveiling a new round of NBC-Marist surveys in three other battleground states — ones that aren’t polled as often — showing an even closer race. In Iowa, the two men are tied at 44% among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate; 10% are undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Romney gets 45%. And in Nevada, the president is at 48% and Romney is at 46%. The margin of error in each of these three surveys is plus-minus 3%, so they are all statistical ties...

Add PA, MN, NJ, WA to the list? http://www.dickmorris.com/the-new-swing-states-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert

Over at The Volokh Conspiracy, Randy Barnett points out a new Quinnipac poll of swing-state voters in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The poll is consistent with previous polling data on Obamacare, indicating that striking down all or part of Obamacare would not do great damage to the Supreme Court’s public image and perceived credibility.According to the poll, 53 percent of Florida voters, 52 percent of Ohio voters, and 46 percent of Pennsylvania voters think Congress should try to repeal the health-care law. This is notable for how far voters are willing to go in their opposition to Obamacare, when offered that...

Unbeknown to Rick Santorum and his campaign team, the GOP nominating contest is effectively over. There is a small chance that Santorum could spring an upset in Wisconsin’s primary Tuesday, since he has over-performed compared to his poll standing a few times, but even if he does, Mitt Romney will still likely win more delegates that day by cruising to victory in the Maryland and Washington, D.C., primaries. A Wisconsin win for Santorum would mean only one thing: that his delusions of becoming the eventual nominee will continue a bit longer, and he will force Mitt Romney to spend more...

Hot Air Memo to GOP:Dear Republicans, When you finish up letting the Democrats lead you around by the nose over things like which radio show host said what about who and where to buy the cheapest birth control pills, you might want to stop by some of the Rust Belt swing states and ask the folks there how things are going. In particular, check in with them in terms of how much it will be costing each voter this summer to keep the lights turned on and whether or not the workers at a number of coal fired power plants...

What happens when an incumbent running for re-election has a signature achievement in his first term that voters strongly dislike? Barack Obama has that problem with ObamaCare among swing-state voters, and finds himself behind both of the leading Republicans in the new USA Today poll of these states: Though the law has avid supporters, especially in the president’s Democratic base, the net effect among middle-of-the-road voters is negative for him. What’s more, the issue unites the GOP when the party is fractured among competing presidential contenders.In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely...

In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. President Obama currently holds leads against the two top candidates in the GOP field. He leads Mitt Romney by 4 points (47% to 43%) and leads Rick Santorum by 2 points (46% to 44%). President Obama’s performance against Romney has been consistent since December, with leads ranging...

Mitt Romney edges Barack Obama among registered voters in swing states, according to a new Gallup/USA Today poll. By “edge,” I mean barely edges — by a single point. Even with that, though, Romney fares far better than his competitors in the same polling: Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney essentially ties Barack Obama in the nation’s key battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States survey finds, while rival Newt Gingrich now trails the president by a decisive 14 percentage points.That reflects a significant decline by the former House speaker since early December, when he led Obama by three points. …In...

As the Republican presidential candidates traipse through the early primary and caucus states, President Obama and Vice President Biden are keeping a tight focus on a handful of swing states that are among the biggest prizes in the 2012 general election contest. Obama and Biden are keeping an official travel schedule that conveniently plunks them in battleground states that may decide the election. Biden will head to Ohio on Thursday to talk about a bread-and-butter issue for the middle class: making college more affordable. On Friday, he’ll appear in the Philadelphia suburbs for a similar speech. Winning Ohio and Pennsylvania,...

A survey of 12 swing states that Barack Obama carried in 2008 now finds the president losing to both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich there. USA Today-Gallup -- polling registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- found Obama trailing Romney 43-48, and Gingrich 45-48. Because Obama is expected to hold the big states of California, New York and Illinois, he maintains a popular-vote advantage nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50-44, and edges Romney 47-46. But the Electoral College math would deliver the White House to Republicans if...

A study released by the centrist group, The Third Way, reveals that more than 800,000 Democrats have left the party in 8 battleground states since 2008.ABC News: "The numbers show that Democrats' path to victory just got harder," said Lanae Erickson, the report's co-author. "We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008."Amid frustrating partisan gridlock and unprecedentedly low party-approval ratings, the number of voters registering under a major party is...

President Obama’s uphill battle to re-election is getting steeper. A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008. “The numbers show that Democrats’ path to victory just got harder,” said Lanae Erickson, the report’s co-author. “We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008.” Amid frustrating partisan gridlock and...

Today Purple Strategies released the results of their first PurplePoll of the 2012 election cycle revealing challenges for President Obama, but problems for Mitt Romney and Rick Perry as well. Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that have decided presidential elections for the past dozen years, and will do so again in 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Eight of these states won by President Obama in 2008 have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates since 1996. The four others (NH, MN, PA, and...

<p>RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — President Barack Obama's disapproval rating has soared to 54 percent in Virginia, a battleground state the Democrat took from the Republicans to win the White House in 2008 and will likely need to carry next year to win re-election, a new poll released Thursday shows.</p>

The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters..Article Comments (47) more in Opinion ». Email Print Save ↓ More . .smaller Larger By LARRY J. SABATO Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses, primaries—that's the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College. The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, things can change: Ronald Reagan...

One of the most annoying things for me has been the fact that every time a vote has been held in congress in the past, the top half of Michigan would be shown in blue on a congressional vote map, along with the Detroit area. If anything, the top half of Michigan is more like the nation’s south, than it is like the state’s southeast. We are resourceful, tolerant people who have finally had enough. I live in the First District of Michigan, and am involved in the primary elections which are quickly approaching, next Tuesday. There is one Democrat...

CINCINNATI — State officials reported on Friday that March's jobless rate is now at 11 percent. That's up from 10.9 in February. The rate is now the highest since September 1983, ONN's Lot Tan reported. "It's so sad, it just devastates me. I cried for a long time. It was a major part of my life," said Peggy Abbott. For nearly 20 years, Abbott dedicated her life to her job. She worked hard, started at the bottom and worked her way to the top. "I made it all the way up to office manager, and I was making good money,"...

The Columbus Dispatch reports that Democrats switching to the Republican party outnumbered Republicans switching to the Democratic party by about 7-to-1 as of Tuesday in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland. In 2008, the figures favored Democrats 5-to-1. In Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati, about 9 times as many Democrats have switched parties.