Posted on 03/29/2020 7:42:31 PM PDT by CaptainK
The problem is the death rate drop needs to follow the case rate drop. A drop in the death rate now tells us that the full data hasn’t been collected for the day.
If that’s true, we’ll see a big jump tomorrow. I’d like to be wrong, but I just don’t see it in the numbers.
me fourier neither
There is a difference of 65 between those 2 groups of numbers.
But I see any drop as a good thing.
You and others were talking up the big increases when they happened.
Now you don't recognize the number when there has been a drop.
SMH
They are.
This is last weeks numbers.
3/20 256 +49
3/21 302 +46
3/22 413 +111 (Sunday)
3/23 553 +140
3/24 778 +225
Because this kind of data doesn’t come from biological systems. Remember, biological systems are “normally distributed”. The math to deal with this kind of data is what you see in radio telescopes. Gas chromatographs. These are sodium lamp numbers. It seriously just doesn’t make sense. The only thing I can think of is we’re still dealing with “noise” and in a population of 330 Million maybe that’s what it is. I’ve never seen data like this. I bet no epidemiologists has either.
BookMark
Hoping this isn’t just a product of states not reporting full results on a Sunday.
If not, it is very encouraging news indeed!
Today's number's were finalized at 00:00 GMT, just like every other day on Worldometer..
I notice that too.
Did they question the really big number on Saturday. No of course they didn't.
I can speak for Taiwan. We responded incredibly strongly almost immediately. We had schools closed through almost all of Feburary, testing ramped up, quarantining and testing of travellers, extensive contact-tracing.
Taiwan learned a hard lesson from SARS, it’s the lesson the US is learning right now. The lesson is this: don’t waste time. The Trump Administration wasted six weeks. The first cases in the US and in South Korea happened on exactly the same day. Korea acted, Trump did not.
Now, thousands are dead.
True, but a few of the numbers have been known to be updated a few hours later. We’re talking about pulling data from a lot of sources. The states themselves have multiple sources. I probably would use a rolling 2- or 3-day average to get a sense of a pattern.
Even if Trump wanted to, the Democrats would have blocked him at every turn, they called him a ‘racist’ when he stopped the flights from China.
Trying to manage this country during a crisis is tantamount to herding cats.
Not so much an issue when your country is relatively small and has a homogenous population.
Same think happened on Mar 21.
One day is not a trend. Especially on a weekend.
so I guess by the numbers we have left the exponential stage and moved to .... linear ? ... for now?
No, not at all. Last Sunday was a big jump. You can easily look at the graph and see that.
No the same thing didn’t happen. The numbers didn’t go down from Saturday to Sunday last week.
3/20 256 +49
3/21 302 +46 (Saturday)
3/22 413 +111 (Sunday)
3/23 553 +140
3/24 778 +225
Yeah, 00:00 GMT vs. what “COVIDTracking” uses may account for the differences I guess...USA stats should use a USA time zone for “end of day”, not 4 or 7 hours earlier.
I agree.
My only point that nobody questioned yesterday's big number or said that we should use a two or tree day rolling average.
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