Posted on 03/29/2020 7:42:31 PM PDT by CaptainK
If the numbers are true then this is statistically very significant and shows that at least for now we have broken the exponential increase. This is the best news possible. Another 10 fold increase (about 1 week) would have blown up the whole country - almost literally. If it stays linear, at this rate, we can get on top of it and handle it.
Now the thing to be concerned about is that while may have it licked in the NY metro area and a couple of other places, it could be about to explode in some other place that isn't taking social distancing seriously.
The really good news is that public health measures work.
You’re giving a man credit for turning on the kitchen sink when the stove caught fire.
Absolutely a good, necessary first step. But completely useless without subsequent action, and tantamount to nothing.
But I wouldn't blame Trump. He inherited a decaying and useless bureaucracy that is even worse than you could imagine - I live in DC and see first hand every day how inept it is and cheer every time I see the tell-tale signs that Trump planted a large boot firmly on some idiots behind.
And, he could not have acted earlier. The Democrats already whined loudly about his racist travel ban, and the FLUBROs here would have called for hanging him from a lamp-post.
You learned from SARS. We didn't.
And a lot of folks here think that tracking, tracing and quarantining someone for carrying a deadly disease is a violation of their constitutional rights. So we had to destroy our economy instead.
Taiwan has a population of 24 million and 14,00 sq miles compared to the USA population of 327 million and 3.80 sq miles.
You are hilarious to compare the two.
Vigorous social distancing certainly has decreased the transmission rate. My statement was intended to note that a further reduction in the transmission rate may be possible if the virus has a seasonal aspect to its transmission. Whether or not the warmer season has a substantial effect is unknown presently. It will be interesting to see how a country such as Mexico (my understanding is they are not taking substantial actions) fares during the pandemic.
Have you thought about your unique ability to see into the past?
What a drama queen.
Blah blah blah
Oh-
And, orange man bad.
Don’t call on the United States when China comes knocking and knocks your frog sticks into the ground.
I know testing and contact tracing were the cornerstone of South Korea’s response. I am not even sure we’re doing the contact tracing now. I hear virtually nothing about it from any public officials and media reports. It seems like they are simply trying to test everyone who shows up asking for a test and praying they don’t run out of tests. They don’t seem to be proactively trying to track down potential carriers who might not know they have it.
The reason our testing wasn’t ramped up is because the CDC made a test verrrry slowly that ended up not working. And meanwhile the FDA kept in place bans on letting any states or private entities make their own tests. The failure of the CDC to make a good test came out of nowhere. Everyone assumed they knew how to do that. But the idea of banning others from making tests at the same time is classic FDA and a classic central planning failure we’re all too familiar with. If we had a system that utilized the states as 50 laboratories all competing with each other to do the best job we could’ve succeeded at making a test.
I think there are major unresolved issues here of what the feds are supposed to do vs. the states in controlling a communicable disease. If there’s even one weak link in the chain, controlling can fail big time, so that would suggest the feds should control it. But as we can see, most of the powers being used now to manage this are being exercised by the states. And the states are claiming they won’t take orders from the feds on any of this.
When it comes to the manpower to deal with people on the ground, the states should be better equipped. But when you’re doing contact-tracing, that can cross state lines. So are you going to have to have two states coordinating to handle it? Or should the feds be running all of the contact tracing?
As it is now, we don’t seem to have hardly any organization and infrastructure in place to handle a pandemic. There is no broad agreement on a plan for how they should be handled. There isn’t any enforcement mechanism for the feds to make a state comply with a consistent plan. And I can only assume there is absolutely no technology in place to handle contact tracing in terms of a database or ability to share this information between the feds and states.
Many thanks for the analysis!
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3829721/posts?page=1#1
Bookmarking!
I read that the New York trial had been delayed by a week, yet some people believe that it started when it was originally scheduled to start, which was last Tuesday, the 24th.
Who knows.
I have no idea.
Remember “The Bell Curve”? Biological derived data doesn’t act like this.
He can't act the way any other President could.
“in a population of 330 Million”.
That’s doubled since my birth. We’re closer together, and more vulnerable.
They are certainly paying a price in NYC.
You are correct.
On March 21 it looked like Italy had peaked in new cases. Although the daily new cases are still high, March 21 does seem to be their peak. The trend is down from that date. I calculated that the US is about 8-10 days behind Italy, based on the date each country had a total of 150 cases. That meant the US peak might be March 29 through April 1.
We will see.
I think it will be later. People with second homes will be heading there. Some will be overnighting at motels, which would be difficult to clear of virus.
Also include foreigners with 2nd homes.
My wife is a retired nurse. She worked mostly at multilevel care facilities, but also did a lot of agency work during the 80s and 90s meaning she went to a lot of places that had suffered some type of crisis and helped to clean them out. During a bad flu season it was not uncommon for skilled care facilities to lose a lot of patients, sometimes peaking at a dozen or more in a day. The Life Care Center in Kirkland which we were very familiar with was one of the best places in the area. They offered a level of care that was higher than many hospitals.
“I usually wait for the next day to use these numbers. They change overnight sometimes.” from my earlier post. The new Worldometer deaths for 3/29 is now 362 up from 264. It’s still good but as before you have to wait a day to see.
Thanks. I was just going to post an update reflecting the new number of 363.
Still better than the 525 from the day before.
BS, you’re a POS TDS troll. Trump shut down travel from china while all the democrat dirt bags like you were calling him a xenophobic racist.
He scrambled to assemble a team that could fix the utter catastrophe that Obama left the CDC in with partisan hacks and a worthless dead end system that gave up on building up a stockpile of respirators after 3 different epidemics hit this country.
he brought in private industry to the vaccine search process to change the time line by months maybe a year quicker
he personally pushed the FDA to allow the use of promising possible remedies
while the whole time walking into a solid headwind of a Marxist/Dem controlled multimedia shit storm.
so your tainted brainwashed democrat talking points are nothing but lies making YOU a liar.
Why don’t you take your hatred to the DU or go back to what ever hole you crawled out of.
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