Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS
No thank you for all your effort! This for me started with OH/FL in 2012 and analyzing those races. Whiffed badly on Ohio but was real close with FL. We have improved our armchair analysis greatly since then.
Thanks. I am cautiously optimistic not only for national races but also in my state of AZ as well for governor, etc.
Fresh poll has Hawley up 4 in Missouri.
Conducted 10/24-10/25 Missouri Scout 1376 LV, 2.6 MOE
Thank you for the updates. Outstanding work.
There are 14 R House members in CA.
Dims are going after each of them aggressively.
How many will survive?
My limited observations of sentiments here indicates we keep most of those seats, but what does the numbers say?
Thank you, Larry. As always, it is appreciated.
John James in MI is going to see the fruits of the Walk Away Movement among Blacks.
Thank you. Another point is that many Rino/weak sister Rs resigned or were primaried out, so even with a narrow majority in the House, many Rs will be MAGA Rs and not side with the Dems on votes.
Thank you for your insights!
One tidbit though: it appears Rs are up 30 points with men!
Kavanaugh Effect.
“I can say for certain that R turnout in Texas is going to be VERY high. I keep talking to people who haven’t voted in many years, who are so pissed off about this Betomania BS, that they can’t wait to vote. I think the real surprise is going to be where this vote will come from - deep blue areas like Austin. Many there have not voted in a long time, because their vote didn’t matter, this year they are saying F it, and are voting anyway. That is going to be the hidden R vote this cycle, people in deep-blue areas that have finally reach their limit of dem BS.”
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I am noticing this as well. A very good friend of mine, always been a democrat from a big Texas money democrat family who has been drinking the kool-aid for all these years has finally had enough. She told me last week that she is voting for Cruz this time, and she plans to vote early in case she is sick or something on election day. The Kavanaugh thing infuriated her.
Also, a friend of mine from work who NEVER even votes at all is voting for Cruz and has ordered signs for his front yard. Same thing, Kavanaugh thing sickened him.
Decent people in Texas are going to come out in droves to vote AGAINST democrats, even if they don’t like Republicans either, to save America from ever having another Kavanaugh travesty happen again.
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"It's a pretty good crowd for a Saturday .... And the manager gives me a smile ..... 'Cause he knows that it's me they've been comin' to see To forget about life for a while…
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Larry, you are a golden gem for this nation.
The Kavanaugh Effect is certainly a part of it, but not the sole reason. The Dems continue to show their true, ugly colors day after day and normal, decent people don’t like what they see.
LS = the ‘go to man”!
Thanks, again.
Great point. If we gain, say net 6 in the Senate, we’ll have one neverTrumper (Minion) to join weak sisters like Aleander, Mel Tillis, and Burrito, along with Collins and MurCowSki.
That is offset by the addition of Blackburn, Hawley, Braun, Scott, and I think for at least a year Heller will behave and McSally will still need Trump too much. That’s not even counting Rosendale, Renacci, or one of the other slightly longer shots. So 6 Trumpers for 3 neverTrumpers and 3 snowflakes. We should win every vote. That’s why just one more-—Rosendale, Renacci, James would be critical here. The GangofRINOs would be powerless.
Three of the most vulnerable races see both the “polling’ and the absentees in our direction. Knight, Rohrabacher, Young Kim, are all probably safe. Denham and Issa’s seat are probably tossups.
I don’t think any of the other 14 Rs are in danger.
Ds have at least two seats in a battle, where Elizabeth Heng and Antonio Sabato, Jr. are involved.
I think we finish CA down one or two, but not more.
Gov in AZ and TX are off the charts for the Rs. Kemp is ahead in GA. The MN race is within 2, as is OH. Walker should (barely) survive). MI is a loss. DeSantis should win by 2.
Pretty sure Yoder will lose. If I had to guess, I’d say Watkins survives. That’s a win for us.
I baked Yoder into the cake.
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