Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS
A few updates for those of you (like me) finding it hard to assimilate all the data from the different races:
1) AZ looking good. It appears McSally has a solid lead, so much so that as of now President Trump is not coming back. Too soon to tell if the turnout will flip AZ1 or hold AZ8. Right now, Rs sitting on a nominal lead of 11.4%, which is about 3% higher than in 2016. No one knows how the indies will break. They don't have enough to overcome that lead, but might be enough to hold the congressional districts. We'll see.
One tidbit though: it appears Rs are up 30 points with men!
2) FL is a tremendous success story. Ravi and SpeedyInTexas have kept you abreast here, and Rs are up in absentees, up in early walk-in voting (unheard of) and up in combo of the two. The current margin with one week to go is 72,000. (In 2016, Rs led absentees, lost early-walk in, and Trump won election day with the final margin 113,000).
REMEMBER, most of the "red" Panhandle counties have only started voting. I predict most of those voters will either do walk-in early or election day. My current projection is that we only lose about 2,000 votes as the result of the hurricane.
BUT what this means is that ALL polling, and even all these numbers, are substantially UNDERSTATED for Republicans. My estimate is that we so far are missing about 8,000 Rs in this count. With these numbers, regardless of "polls" I see no way either Scott or DeSantis loses, and we should hold FL26 and 27 & possibly get FL7. This would crush any hopes Ds have of taking the House
IA was looking good, but I don't have any data more recent than a week ago. Ds ALWAYS lead big in absentees in IA (exactly the opposite of FL and OH) and of course led, but were way down from 2016---when they were way down from 2012. The trend is definitely our friend.
Again, older #S, but they showed that IA1 with Rod Blum was looking safer. This is a district the Ds really need to flip to have a shot at re-taking the House. IA2 remains a possible flip. The D there won in 2014 by 14,000 but (as of last week) Rs had cut into that already by 5,000. I'm anxious to see the new votes & comparisons.
NV is looking awesome. Ds are somewhat overperforming in Washoe (an R county) but Rs are overperforming in the more populous Clark County (D) so it's more than a wash. Right now it's looking like Ds will end early voting up no more than 2,000 (a MASSIVE dip from 2016---some 88%) or could even finish with no lead at all.
This looks very good for Heller, and Trump has not scheduled another trip to NV, so I guess he thinks it's safe. Laxalt should win, and NV3 and NV4 (flips to us) are a genuine possibility. If either of those goes to us, that's pretty much the House.
MN continues to turn out good news. Sources tell me Wardlow should beat the Jihadi Abuser Keith Ellison, that Hously is within 3, even Newberger has new life and is within 7, and that we'll flip 2 D seats. Erik Paulsen, a neverTrumper, is in trouble, but people there think he will eke it out.
Currently the early/absentee vote (they don't do D/R ballots so we can't check party performance) stands at 205% of 2016 levels!!!
KS Kobach in a tough fight, but should win. We'll likely lose Yoder's seat (a never Trumper---anyone seeing a pattern here?). Still not sure on Walters' seat. But Rs are up over 2016 pace in early/absentee so it's looking good.
NC Rs are up about 3 from 2016 levels, but Ds are down 17! Black turnout low at about 6%, whites pretty high at 51%. Rs are in good shape and Trump just did a rally there to help the only two at-risk congressmen. My guess is they'll both hold (Harris & McCready)
NM The NM1 seat was thought to be "gettable" when I was there 6 weeks ago. NM2 appears to be a hold for us.
TX has very, very high turnout in the red areas. They don't do party ballots so hard to track. But I remain convinced Betamale won't get within 10 of Cruz. Abbott "cruises" to victory.
TN Blackburn "appears" safe and turnout in red ares high, but Trump is going back there. I'm wondering is this is partly because the TN media may bleed over to GA and the GA gov race, which is tight, with Kemp leading.
IN moving our way. Braun is up, turnout in red Hamilton is off the charts ("historic").
ND no longer a race. GOP should pull resources & send to MI.
MI John James, the Manhunter from Mars, has slashed a 17 point deficit down to, as of last night's internals, under six. He is making definite inroads, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump do an OH/MI swing. He's still a longshot, but almost within MOE. With low Detroit turnout, he can win.
OH numbers look just like 2016 in Montgomery CO, which is a bellwether. Cuyahoga Ds are way down, Rs are way up. I think given the GOP's REAL 300,000 registration lead (after allocating indies), Renacci and DeWine both win.
WV I don't believe the poll having Morrissey ahead, but it's probably a 2-3 point race with Manchin up. The hurdle here is he did vote for Kavanaugh when it didn't matter. So it's hard for M to say, "Well, this is what he WOULD have done if it did matter."
NJ Huggie Bear Hugin now tied in most polls. This is a perpetual teaser state, gut people may be sick of the corrupt Menendez. I have NJ and MI as very possible longshots.
MT is the puzzle. The voter reg says Testicles shouldn't have a chance, but polls keep showing him up. I don't know on this one. The numbers say flip.
WI and PA, no chance for the senate seats, Walker will struggle and "may" pull it out.
My predictions remain Senate +4-7 for Rs net; we hold the House by a handful (maybe 5). I have the max D gain at 15 including 2 D-R flips in MN and a floor of 8. If this is a real "wave" there are about 6 flippable D-R seats. I don't see how we can actually gain seats, but this really is a big turnout.
No thank you for all your effort! This for me started with OH/FL in 2012 and analyzing those races. Whiffed badly on Ohio but was real close with FL. We have improved our armchair analysis greatly since then.
Thanks. I am cautiously optimistic not only for national races but also in my state of AZ as well for governor, etc.
Fresh poll has Hawley up 4 in Missouri.
Conducted 10/24-10/25 Missouri Scout 1376 LV, 2.6 MOE
Thank you for the updates. Outstanding work.
There are 14 R House members in CA.
Dims are going after each of them aggressively.
How many will survive?
My limited observations of sentiments here indicates we keep most of those seats, but what does the numbers say?
Thank you, Larry. As always, it is appreciated.
John James in MI is going to see the fruits of the Walk Away Movement among Blacks.
Thank you. Another point is that many Rino/weak sister Rs resigned or were primaried out, so even with a narrow majority in the House, many Rs will be MAGA Rs and not side with the Dems on votes.
Thank you for your insights!
One tidbit though: it appears Rs are up 30 points with men!
Kavanaugh Effect.
“I can say for certain that R turnout in Texas is going to be VERY high. I keep talking to people who haven’t voted in many years, who are so pissed off about this Betomania BS, that they can’t wait to vote. I think the real surprise is going to be where this vote will come from - deep blue areas like Austin. Many there have not voted in a long time, because their vote didn’t matter, this year they are saying F it, and are voting anyway. That is going to be the hidden R vote this cycle, people in deep-blue areas that have finally reach their limit of dem BS.”
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I am noticing this as well. A very good friend of mine, always been a democrat from a big Texas money democrat family who has been drinking the kool-aid for all these years has finally had enough. She told me last week that she is voting for Cruz this time, and she plans to vote early in case she is sick or something on election day. The Kavanaugh thing infuriated her.
Also, a friend of mine from work who NEVER even votes at all is voting for Cruz and has ordered signs for his front yard. Same thing, Kavanaugh thing sickened him.
Decent people in Texas are going to come out in droves to vote AGAINST democrats, even if they don’t like Republicans either, to save America from ever having another Kavanaugh travesty happen again.
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"It's a pretty good crowd for a Saturday .... And the manager gives me a smile ..... 'Cause he knows that it's me they've been comin' to see To forget about life for a while…
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Larry, you are a golden gem for this nation.
The Kavanaugh Effect is certainly a part of it, but not the sole reason. The Dems continue to show their true, ugly colors day after day and normal, decent people don’t like what they see.
LS = the ‘go to man”!
Thanks, again.
Great point. If we gain, say net 6 in the Senate, we’ll have one neverTrumper (Minion) to join weak sisters like Aleander, Mel Tillis, and Burrito, along with Collins and MurCowSki.
That is offset by the addition of Blackburn, Hawley, Braun, Scott, and I think for at least a year Heller will behave and McSally will still need Trump too much. That’s not even counting Rosendale, Renacci, or one of the other slightly longer shots. So 6 Trumpers for 3 neverTrumpers and 3 snowflakes. We should win every vote. That’s why just one more-—Rosendale, Renacci, James would be critical here. The GangofRINOs would be powerless.
Three of the most vulnerable races see both the “polling’ and the absentees in our direction. Knight, Rohrabacher, Young Kim, are all probably safe. Denham and Issa’s seat are probably tossups.
I don’t think any of the other 14 Rs are in danger.
Ds have at least two seats in a battle, where Elizabeth Heng and Antonio Sabato, Jr. are involved.
I think we finish CA down one or two, but not more.
Gov in AZ and TX are off the charts for the Rs. Kemp is ahead in GA. The MN race is within 2, as is OH. Walker should (barely) survive). MI is a loss. DeSantis should win by 2.
Pretty sure Yoder will lose. If I had to guess, I’d say Watkins survives. That’s a win for us.
I baked Yoder into the cake.
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