Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS
Voter reg deficit, uninspiring candidates, no gov pull from top (Walker will win, but by a small margin).
Did you see how Bay is doing today? They are are ramping up nicely. Not all the Bay data is on the state website yet.
Good for Bay!
Methos8, how are updates to your spreadsheet looking today for DEMs with souls-to-polls?
Their “big” jump will occur next Sunday, Nov 4. Are they getting a bump today?
Sean Trende (RCP)
“It seems to me that early voting [this year] is more consistent with what we saw in 2016 or 2014.” [Good GOP years]
“Especially when compared with the results we saw in some of the specials. You probably would expect D turnout to be through the roof, and it isn’t really what we see.”
I’m gonna update it tonight. I think staring at screens all day is giving me migraines!
Yeah definitely flavor of 2014/16. Just need to keep the pedal on the gas for one more week
It was a modest bump as expected. Democrats will almost surely take the in-person EV lead when the numbers come out tomorrow morning, and probably lead by about 5k. Depends on the turnout in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach (already checked Broward).
Nothing major on the VBM front. We continue to do well but it will be hard to add to the lead when the remaining votes out there are 611k Rep and 729k Dem.
OK, Thanks.
Next Sunday will be the big DEM in-person EV day.
Ok will take it. In 2016, we lost 1/3rd of our lead today.
Thanks for the ping and for the excellent analysis, LS!
Looks like the blue wave has been downgraded to a ripple.
“ND no longer a race. GOP should pull resources & send to MI.”
Can you clarify? Are you saying the D’s will keep seats or lose seats in ND?
So many thanks for your tireless work. So grateful to have you here.
No, ND is over for Heitkamp. She’s double digits behind. I think same for Hawley. Heller & McSally ahead slightly, but very solidly (i.e., don’t see how their margin can shrink).
I’d put everything into FL, MI, MN, OH, and WV.
If 45’s data operation is half of yours, he’s on it.
Unless events overtake us, and he’s pulled away. This is my fear.
You have to keep in mind that Trump visits areas for maximum blast zone impact, namely media markets as Parscale has devised it. So, Ft. Wayne IN? That helps Braun obviously, but it also bleeds into Battle Creek, Grand Rapids, and a host of western MI cities for James; also hits all of northwestern OH for Renaicci.
TN helps Blackburn, but also bleeds into Atlanta markets for Kemp.
FL helps Scott, DeSantis, and about four House races, including a potential flip.
Hughes in CD8 for MN is in a tossup and may beat Peterson. That would be another R pickup in MN.
Yes. My sources in MN say it’s very close. MN having strong R turnout.
I only saw the first Barletta signs a couple of days ago, and I haven't gotten a single snailmail piece from his campaign or the party supporting him. Sad.
Sorry - meant CD7. David Hughes versus Colin Peterson. Neck and neck.
Here’s some good news from DCWhispers from within the hour:
REPORT: Dems Push Panic Button As Republican Midterm Election Enthusiasm Surges
Republicans dominated early voting. Then, Democrats saw their side mobilizing for a final days push they were confident would give them the House. Now, Democrats are panicking as the mobilization on their side is being countered by suddenly resurgent and enthusiastic Republican voters determined to protect and promote President Donald Trump.
It was never supposed to be this close. Historically the party that controls the White House loses and often loses big during the Midterm cycle.
Not this time. The Senate looks increasingly secure for Republicans while the House, which was leaning heavily toward a Democrat takeover just a few weeks earlier, is now a dead heat between the two political parties and that has the Democrat leadership increasingly concerned...
Really?? That's astounding. Does NOT bode well for Lou... what a shame. I really liked what I saw of Lou Barletta at the PA Trump rallies.
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