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General Around-the-Horn Update
Self | 10/27/2018 | LS

Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS

A few updates for those of you (like me) finding it hard to assimilate all the data from the different races:

1) AZ looking good. It appears McSally has a solid lead, so much so that as of now President Trump is not coming back. Too soon to tell if the turnout will flip AZ1 or hold AZ8. Right now, Rs sitting on a nominal lead of 11.4%, which is about 3% higher than in 2016. No one knows how the indies will break. They don't have enough to overcome that lead, but might be enough to hold the congressional districts. We'll see.

One tidbit though: it appears Rs are up 30 points with men!

2) FL is a tremendous success story. Ravi and SpeedyInTexas have kept you abreast here, and Rs are up in absentees, up in early walk-in voting (unheard of) and up in combo of the two. The current margin with one week to go is 72,000. (In 2016, Rs led absentees, lost early-walk in, and Trump won election day with the final margin 113,000).

REMEMBER, most of the "red" Panhandle counties have only started voting. I predict most of those voters will either do walk-in early or election day. My current projection is that we only lose about 2,000 votes as the result of the hurricane.

BUT what this means is that ALL polling, and even all these numbers, are substantially UNDERSTATED for Republicans. My estimate is that we so far are missing about 8,000 Rs in this count. With these numbers, regardless of "polls" I see no way either Scott or DeSantis loses, and we should hold FL26 and 27 & possibly get FL7. This would crush any hopes Ds have of taking the House

IA was looking good, but I don't have any data more recent than a week ago. Ds ALWAYS lead big in absentees in IA (exactly the opposite of FL and OH) and of course led, but were way down from 2016---when they were way down from 2012. The trend is definitely our friend.

Again, older #S, but they showed that IA1 with Rod Blum was looking safer. This is a district the Ds really need to flip to have a shot at re-taking the House. IA2 remains a possible flip. The D there won in 2014 by 14,000 but (as of last week) Rs had cut into that already by 5,000. I'm anxious to see the new votes & comparisons.

NV is looking awesome. Ds are somewhat overperforming in Washoe (an R county) but Rs are overperforming in the more populous Clark County (D) so it's more than a wash. Right now it's looking like Ds will end early voting up no more than 2,000 (a MASSIVE dip from 2016---some 88%) or could even finish with no lead at all.

This looks very good for Heller, and Trump has not scheduled another trip to NV, so I guess he thinks it's safe. Laxalt should win, and NV3 and NV4 (flips to us) are a genuine possibility. If either of those goes to us, that's pretty much the House.

MN continues to turn out good news. Sources tell me Wardlow should beat the Jihadi Abuser Keith Ellison, that Hously is within 3, even Newberger has new life and is within 7, and that we'll flip 2 D seats. Erik Paulsen, a neverTrumper, is in trouble, but people there think he will eke it out.

Currently the early/absentee vote (they don't do D/R ballots so we can't check party performance) stands at 205% of 2016 levels!!!

KS Kobach in a tough fight, but should win. We'll likely lose Yoder's seat (a never Trumper---anyone seeing a pattern here?). Still not sure on Walters' seat. But Rs are up over 2016 pace in early/absentee so it's looking good.

NC Rs are up about 3 from 2016 levels, but Ds are down 17! Black turnout low at about 6%, whites pretty high at 51%. Rs are in good shape and Trump just did a rally there to help the only two at-risk congressmen. My guess is they'll both hold (Harris & McCready)

NM The NM1 seat was thought to be "gettable" when I was there 6 weeks ago. NM2 appears to be a hold for us.

TX has very, very high turnout in the red areas. They don't do party ballots so hard to track. But I remain convinced Betamale won't get within 10 of Cruz. Abbott "cruises" to victory.

TN Blackburn "appears" safe and turnout in red ares high, but Trump is going back there. I'm wondering is this is partly because the TN media may bleed over to GA and the GA gov race, which is tight, with Kemp leading.

IN moving our way. Braun is up, turnout in red Hamilton is off the charts ("historic").

ND no longer a race. GOP should pull resources & send to MI.

MI John James, the Manhunter from Mars, has slashed a 17 point deficit down to, as of last night's internals, under six. He is making definite inroads, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump do an OH/MI swing. He's still a longshot, but almost within MOE. With low Detroit turnout, he can win.

OH numbers look just like 2016 in Montgomery CO, which is a bellwether. Cuyahoga Ds are way down, Rs are way up. I think given the GOP's REAL 300,000 registration lead (after allocating indies), Renacci and DeWine both win.

WV I don't believe the poll having Morrissey ahead, but it's probably a 2-3 point race with Manchin up. The hurdle here is he did vote for Kavanaugh when it didn't matter. So it's hard for M to say, "Well, this is what he WOULD have done if it did matter."

NJ Huggie Bear Hugin now tied in most polls. This is a perpetual teaser state, gut people may be sick of the corrupt Menendez. I have NJ and MI as very possible longshots.

MT is the puzzle. The voter reg says Testicles shouldn't have a chance, but polls keep showing him up. I don't know on this one. The numbers say flip.

WI and PA, no chance for the senate seats, Walker will struggle and "may" pull it out.

My predictions remain Senate +4-7 for Rs net; we hold the House by a handful (maybe 5). I have the max D gain at 15 including 2 D-R flips in MN and a floor of 8. If this is a real "wave" there are about 6 flippable D-R seats. I don't see how we can actually gain seats, but this really is a big turnout.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: election; horn; trump
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To: mbrfl

Voter reg deficit, uninspiring candidates, no gov pull from top (Walker will win, but by a small margin).


81 posted on 10/27/2018 9:15:09 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Methos8; SpeedyInTexas; LS

Did you see how Bay is doing today? They are are ramping up nicely. Not all the Bay data is on the state website yet.


82 posted on 10/28/2018 11:58:01 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi; LS; Methos8

Good for Bay!

Methos8, how are updates to your spreadsheet looking today for DEMs with souls-to-polls?

Their “big” jump will occur next Sunday, Nov 4. Are they getting a bump today?


83 posted on 10/28/2018 12:56:27 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi; LS

Sean Trende (RCP)

“It seems to me that early voting [this year] is more consistent with what we saw in 2016 or 2014.” [Good GOP years]

“Especially when compared with the results we saw in some of the specials. You probably would expect D turnout to be through the roof, and it isn’t really what we see.”


84 posted on 10/28/2018 2:12:12 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I’m gonna update it tonight. I think staring at screens all day is giving me migraines!


85 posted on 10/28/2018 2:20:59 PM PDT by Methos8
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Yeah definitely flavor of 2014/16. Just need to keep the pedal on the gas for one more week


86 posted on 10/28/2018 2:52:33 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas; Ravi; LS

It was a modest bump as expected. Democrats will almost surely take the in-person EV lead when the numbers come out tomorrow morning, and probably lead by about 5k. Depends on the turnout in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach (already checked Broward).

Nothing major on the VBM front. We continue to do well but it will be hard to add to the lead when the remaining votes out there are 611k Rep and 729k Dem.


87 posted on 10/28/2018 3:22:28 PM PDT by Methos8
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To: Methos8

OK, Thanks.

Next Sunday will be the big DEM in-person EV day.


88 posted on 10/28/2018 3:28:31 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Methos8

Ok will take it. In 2016, we lost 1/3rd of our lead today.


89 posted on 10/28/2018 3:29:48 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: LS

Thanks for the ping and for the excellent analysis, LS!

Looks like the blue wave has been downgraded to a ripple.


90 posted on 10/28/2018 4:46:47 PM PDT by kevao (BIBLICAL JESUS: Give your money to the poor. SOCIALIST JESUS: Give your neighbor's money to the poor)
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To: LS

“ND no longer a race. GOP should pull resources & send to MI.”

Can you clarify? Are you saying the D’s will keep seats or lose seats in ND?

So many thanks for your tireless work. So grateful to have you here.


91 posted on 10/29/2018 8:50:38 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: RinaseaofDs

No, ND is over for Heitkamp. She’s double digits behind. I think same for Hawley. Heller & McSally ahead slightly, but very solidly (i.e., don’t see how their margin can shrink).

I’d put everything into FL, MI, MN, OH, and WV.


92 posted on 10/29/2018 8:52:00 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

If 45’s data operation is half of yours, he’s on it.

Unless events overtake us, and he’s pulled away. This is my fear.


93 posted on 10/29/2018 8:54:27 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: RinaseaofDs

You have to keep in mind that Trump visits areas for maximum blast zone impact, namely media markets as Parscale has devised it. So, Ft. Wayne IN? That helps Braun obviously, but it also bleeds into Battle Creek, Grand Rapids, and a host of western MI cities for James; also hits all of northwestern OH for Renaicci.

TN helps Blackburn, but also bleeds into Atlanta markets for Kemp.

FL helps Scott, DeSantis, and about four House races, including a potential flip.


94 posted on 10/29/2018 8:57:31 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Hughes in CD8 for MN is in a tossup and may beat Peterson. That would be another R pickup in MN.


95 posted on 11/02/2018 6:49:23 AM PDT by Solson (Trump 2020!)
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To: Solson

Yes. My sources in MN say it’s very close. MN having strong R turnout.


96 posted on 11/02/2018 6:57:11 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS
WI and PA, no chance for the senate seats...

I only saw the first Barletta signs a couple of days ago, and I haven't gotten a single snailmail piece from his campaign or the party supporting him. Sad.

97 posted on 11/02/2018 7:48:41 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Trump: "In the meantime, I'm president and you're not!")
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To: LS

Sorry - meant CD7. David Hughes versus Colin Peterson. Neck and neck.


98 posted on 11/02/2018 8:38:30 AM PDT by Solson (Trump 2020!)
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To: plushaye

Here’s some good news from DCWhispers from within the hour:

http://dcwhispers.com/report-dems-push-panic-button-as-republican-midterm-election-enthusiasm-surges/

REPORT: Dems Push Panic Button As Republican Midterm Election Enthusiasm Surges

Republicans dominated early voting. Then, Democrats saw their side mobilizing for a final days push they were confident would give them the House. Now, Democrats are panicking as the mobilization on their side is being countered by suddenly resurgent and enthusiastic Republican voters determined to protect and promote President Donald Trump.

It was never supposed to be this close. Historically the party that controls the White House loses and often loses big during the Midterm cycle.

Not this time. The Senate looks increasingly secure for Republicans while the House, which was leaning heavily toward a Democrat takeover just a few weeks earlier, is now a dead heat between the two political parties and that has the Democrat leadership increasingly concerned...


99 posted on 11/02/2018 11:22:27 AM PDT by plushaye (Kat Kerr Presidential Prophecy: Trump (2 terms), Pence (2 terms), Pence's VP (2 terms))
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To: Fresh Wind
I only saw the first Barletta signs a couple of days ago, and I haven't gotten a single snailmail piece from his campaign or the party supporting him. Sad.

Really?? That's astounding. Does NOT bode well for Lou... what a shame. I really liked what I saw of Lou Barletta at the PA Trump rallies.

100 posted on 11/02/2018 8:21:55 PM PDT by nutmeg
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