Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS
A few updates for those of you (like me) finding it hard to assimilate all the data from the different races:
1) AZ looking good. It appears McSally has a solid lead, so much so that as of now President Trump is not coming back. Too soon to tell if the turnout will flip AZ1 or hold AZ8. Right now, Rs sitting on a nominal lead of 11.4%, which is about 3% higher than in 2016. No one knows how the indies will break. They don't have enough to overcome that lead, but might be enough to hold the congressional districts. We'll see.
One tidbit though: it appears Rs are up 30 points with men!
2) FL is a tremendous success story. Ravi and SpeedyInTexas have kept you abreast here, and Rs are up in absentees, up in early walk-in voting (unheard of) and up in combo of the two. The current margin with one week to go is 72,000. (In 2016, Rs led absentees, lost early-walk in, and Trump won election day with the final margin 113,000).
REMEMBER, most of the "red" Panhandle counties have only started voting. I predict most of those voters will either do walk-in early or election day. My current projection is that we only lose about 2,000 votes as the result of the hurricane.
BUT what this means is that ALL polling, and even all these numbers, are substantially UNDERSTATED for Republicans. My estimate is that we so far are missing about 8,000 Rs in this count. With these numbers, regardless of "polls" I see no way either Scott or DeSantis loses, and we should hold FL26 and 27 & possibly get FL7. This would crush any hopes Ds have of taking the House
IA was looking good, but I don't have any data more recent than a week ago. Ds ALWAYS lead big in absentees in IA (exactly the opposite of FL and OH) and of course led, but were way down from 2016---when they were way down from 2012. The trend is definitely our friend.
Again, older #S, but they showed that IA1 with Rod Blum was looking safer. This is a district the Ds really need to flip to have a shot at re-taking the House. IA2 remains a possible flip. The D there won in 2014 by 14,000 but (as of last week) Rs had cut into that already by 5,000. I'm anxious to see the new votes & comparisons.
NV is looking awesome. Ds are somewhat overperforming in Washoe (an R county) but Rs are overperforming in the more populous Clark County (D) so it's more than a wash. Right now it's looking like Ds will end early voting up no more than 2,000 (a MASSIVE dip from 2016---some 88%) or could even finish with no lead at all.
This looks very good for Heller, and Trump has not scheduled another trip to NV, so I guess he thinks it's safe. Laxalt should win, and NV3 and NV4 (flips to us) are a genuine possibility. If either of those goes to us, that's pretty much the House.
MN continues to turn out good news. Sources tell me Wardlow should beat the Jihadi Abuser Keith Ellison, that Hously is within 3, even Newberger has new life and is within 7, and that we'll flip 2 D seats. Erik Paulsen, a neverTrumper, is in trouble, but people there think he will eke it out.
Currently the early/absentee vote (they don't do D/R ballots so we can't check party performance) stands at 205% of 2016 levels!!!
KS Kobach in a tough fight, but should win. We'll likely lose Yoder's seat (a never Trumper---anyone seeing a pattern here?). Still not sure on Walters' seat. But Rs are up over 2016 pace in early/absentee so it's looking good.
NC Rs are up about 3 from 2016 levels, but Ds are down 17! Black turnout low at about 6%, whites pretty high at 51%. Rs are in good shape and Trump just did a rally there to help the only two at-risk congressmen. My guess is they'll both hold (Harris & McCready)
NM The NM1 seat was thought to be "gettable" when I was there 6 weeks ago. NM2 appears to be a hold for us.
TX has very, very high turnout in the red areas. They don't do party ballots so hard to track. But I remain convinced Betamale won't get within 10 of Cruz. Abbott "cruises" to victory.
TN Blackburn "appears" safe and turnout in red ares high, but Trump is going back there. I'm wondering is this is partly because the TN media may bleed over to GA and the GA gov race, which is tight, with Kemp leading.
IN moving our way. Braun is up, turnout in red Hamilton is off the charts ("historic").
ND no longer a race. GOP should pull resources & send to MI.
MI John James, the Manhunter from Mars, has slashed a 17 point deficit down to, as of last night's internals, under six. He is making definite inroads, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump do an OH/MI swing. He's still a longshot, but almost within MOE. With low Detroit turnout, he can win.
OH numbers look just like 2016 in Montgomery CO, which is a bellwether. Cuyahoga Ds are way down, Rs are way up. I think given the GOP's REAL 300,000 registration lead (after allocating indies), Renacci and DeWine both win.
WV I don't believe the poll having Morrissey ahead, but it's probably a 2-3 point race with Manchin up. The hurdle here is he did vote for Kavanaugh when it didn't matter. So it's hard for M to say, "Well, this is what he WOULD have done if it did matter."
NJ Huggie Bear Hugin now tied in most polls. This is a perpetual teaser state, gut people may be sick of the corrupt Menendez. I have NJ and MI as very possible longshots.
MT is the puzzle. The voter reg says Testicles shouldn't have a chance, but polls keep showing him up. I don't know on this one. The numbers say flip.
WI and PA, no chance for the senate seats, Walker will struggle and "may" pull it out.
My predictions remain Senate +4-7 for Rs net; we hold the House by a handful (maybe 5). I have the max D gain at 15 including 2 D-R flips in MN and a floor of 8. If this is a real "wave" there are about 6 flippable D-R seats. I don't see how we can actually gain seats, but this really is a big turnout.
When I was a kid I was an extra several times on The Rifleman. Chuck Connors was a wonderful guy who liked playing baseball with the kids at lunch. Johnny Crawford was also a terrific guy. He asked for me a couple of times to be called back.
Fun memory.
Thank you.
Measuring sentiment in the Central Valley I assessed we would keep all Rs here, to include Denham. Was not sure about SoCal.
I too am thinking we keep 12.
Chuck was a first baseman for the Dodgers for a while if I recall.
The only qualifier I would add is that although Volusia may be a bellwether, all the numbers will be skewed to Ds because of the hurricane in the Panhandle.
I am in NW GA. My husband and I are shocked at the number of Abrams signs. Ugh.
There is a rally here on Thursday with the VP and Kemp. Kemp is not the strongest candidate, but Abrams would be terrible for GA!!!!
Thank you so much.
JMO but McCaskill has run her idiot mouth one too many times. She’s done.
“all the numbers will be skewed to Ds because of the hurricane in the Panhandle.”
Yeah, you’re right. I have no grasp of the recovery re: voting. Although Rick Scott must be quite aware...and quietly paddling like hell to bandage it. Probably 0.5-1% impact, maybe, do you think?
Early votes are not actually counted until election day, correct? Your numbers are based on registration, right? Is it not possible that a lot of D voters will cross over and vote R—the #walkaway movement effect?
That’s what concerns me for sure. That won’t help with other races, either.
Thoughts on Florida? I’m close to the People’s Republic of Alachua/Gainesville (Univ of Florida), so it’s hard to tell and I’m concerned about the panhandle after the smack they took from Michael.
We win senate by 4-5, Gov by a couple.
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Paladin was the greatest TV western. Several years ago I binge-watched it all.
A number of the shows were written by Gene Roddenberry. I could usually tell before the credits. They were the quirky ones.
Bookclosing registration reports for FL for recent elections:
10/9/18-263,000 Dem advantage
10/27/16-327,000 Dem advantage
10/18/14-456,000 Dem advantage
There are now 4.68 million Reps and 4.94 million Dems registered this year. We have a MUCH larger pool of voters that can vote compared to years past - this is definitely part of what’s helping the EV/VBM. Only 4 years ago, there were 4.17 million Reps registered for 2014 election. We have increased this base by over 400,000 voters since 2014. We need to make sure they vote of course - one thing to be registered, another to vote.
It would not surprise me in 2 years time that the Dem advantage with registered voters would shrink under 200k.
Praying you are on the mark- again!!
One hell of a guy!
The Senate races are giving a good sense of the nation’s mood. I think that the media and the Democrats are going to be disappointed to say the least. As for the House, it’s almost anyone guess. The polls are almost useless, except that where there are decent polls, they tell a positive story for the GOP. But, it looks like only the media are funding public polls and they are only paying for results that they need to advance their agenda. Early voting seems to be a promising metric, but it’s hit and miss based on how the state’s report. This one deserves a serious analysis of 2016 to get ready for 2020.
There are too many razor thin margins for House races to suit me and we could be surprised in either direction. We will need to look at what Republican suburban women did this year. My gut tells me that they can be divided into two groups: Solid conservatives who voted for God, Country, and family and will make us proud. The other group are more concerned with their social standing, hate Trump, and have become self absorbed weak minded liberals.
Sorry to hear about WI and PA senate races. What’s your prognosis based on?
Thanks as always for cheering me up after a heavy dose of dismal media news, which includes latest polls from RCP.
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