Posted on 10/27/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by LS
When I was a kid I was an extra several times on The Rifleman. Chuck Connors was a wonderful guy who liked playing baseball with the kids at lunch. Johnny Crawford was also a terrific guy. He asked for me a couple of times to be called back.
Fun memory.
Thank you.
Measuring sentiment in the Central Valley I assessed we would keep all Rs here, to include Denham. Was not sure about SoCal.
I too am thinking we keep 12.
Chuck was a first baseman for the Dodgers for a while if I recall.
The only qualifier I would add is that although Volusia may be a bellwether, all the numbers will be skewed to Ds because of the hurricane in the Panhandle.
I am in NW GA. My husband and I are shocked at the number of Abrams signs. Ugh.
There is a rally here on Thursday with the VP and Kemp. Kemp is not the strongest candidate, but Abrams would be terrible for GA!!!!
Thank you so much.
JMO but McCaskill has run her idiot mouth one too many times. She’s done.
“all the numbers will be skewed to Ds because of the hurricane in the Panhandle.”
Yeah, you’re right. I have no grasp of the recovery re: voting. Although Rick Scott must be quite aware...and quietly paddling like hell to bandage it. Probably 0.5-1% impact, maybe, do you think?
Early votes are not actually counted until election day, correct? Your numbers are based on registration, right? Is it not possible that a lot of D voters will cross over and vote R—the #walkaway movement effect?
That’s what concerns me for sure. That won’t help with other races, either.
Thoughts on Florida? I’m close to the People’s Republic of Alachua/Gainesville (Univ of Florida), so it’s hard to tell and I’m concerned about the panhandle after the smack they took from Michael.
We win senate by 4-5, Gov by a couple.
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Paladin was the greatest TV western. Several years ago I binge-watched it all.
A number of the shows were written by Gene Roddenberry. I could usually tell before the credits. They were the quirky ones.
Bookclosing registration reports for FL for recent elections:
10/9/18-263,000 Dem advantage
10/27/16-327,000 Dem advantage
10/18/14-456,000 Dem advantage
There are now 4.68 million Reps and 4.94 million Dems registered this year. We have a MUCH larger pool of voters that can vote compared to years past - this is definitely part of what’s helping the EV/VBM. Only 4 years ago, there were 4.17 million Reps registered for 2014 election. We have increased this base by over 400,000 voters since 2014. We need to make sure they vote of course - one thing to be registered, another to vote.
It would not surprise me in 2 years time that the Dem advantage with registered voters would shrink under 200k.
Praying you are on the mark- again!!
One hell of a guy!
The Senate races are giving a good sense of the nation’s mood. I think that the media and the Democrats are going to be disappointed to say the least. As for the House, it’s almost anyone guess. The polls are almost useless, except that where there are decent polls, they tell a positive story for the GOP. But, it looks like only the media are funding public polls and they are only paying for results that they need to advance their agenda. Early voting seems to be a promising metric, but it’s hit and miss based on how the state’s report. This one deserves a serious analysis of 2016 to get ready for 2020.
There are too many razor thin margins for House races to suit me and we could be surprised in either direction. We will need to look at what Republican suburban women did this year. My gut tells me that they can be divided into two groups: Solid conservatives who voted for God, Country, and family and will make us proud. The other group are more concerned with their social standing, hate Trump, and have become self absorbed weak minded liberals.
Sorry to hear about WI and PA senate races. What’s your prognosis based on?
Thanks as always for cheering me up after a heavy dose of dismal media news, which includes latest polls from RCP.
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