Sorry, Trump Lost(hurl alert)

Elections are supposed to be about the future, but Donald Trump is stuck in the past. He is dead set on running for president in 2024 by campaigning on the very worst part of his record.

In his much-hyped return to the mainstream media, a CNN town hall on May 11, Trump doubled down on his claims that millions of fraudulent votes were the cause of his defeat in 2020. He said he had no regrets about his behavior before and during the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, and that he does not owe Mike Pence an apology for ordering him to flout the Constitution and the federal law governing the counting of Electoral College votes. He recast his December 2022 endorsement of the “termination” of the Constitution when there is voter fraud as “cherishing” the Constitution. He said that if elected in 2024, he would pardon many of those convicted for illegally storming the Capitol, and he even left open the possibility of pardoning leaders of the far-right extremist group the Proud Boys who were recently convicted of seditious conspiracy for spearheading the attack on the Capitol.

But two and a half years after the 2020 election, the voter-fraud theories on which the “stop the steal” campaign was based look weaker than ever.

In November 2020, Trump and his allies eventually settled on the wild theory that Dominion voting machines had been programmed to “say that a Biden vote counts as 1.25, and a Trump vote counts as 0.75,” as Trump lawyer Sidney Powell said at the time. “The algorithm was likely run across the country to affect the entire election.” On January 6, in the speech he delivered near the White House, Trump promoted the Dominion conspiracy theory. But by then it had already been disproved by a hand recount in Georgia. Each voter used a touch screen to print out a paper ballot that stated in plain text the names of the candidates a voter selected. During the hand recount, with bipartisan election observers present, human beings read those ballots and sorted them into “Trump” and “Biden” piles. There was no way for those people to count a Trump or a Biden paper ballot as anything less or more than one vote. In other words, if there had been a systemic problem with the machine-counting of the ballots, the hand recount would have caught it.

In April of this year, the Dominion conspiracy theory received a final blow with the resolution of the company’s defamation lawsuit against Fox News. The truth is an absolute defense against defamation, but the network settled with Dominion — after the process of legal discovery — for $787 million. Trump is unlikely to repeat the specific claims he made about Dominion while in office because he would open himself up to civil liability as a private citizen; he is likely protected from any personal liability for defamatory statements made while president. That’s one reason why he has shifted to a different voter-fraud theory.

“If you look at True the Vote, they found millions of votes on camera, on government cameras, where they were stuffing ballot boxes,” Trump told Kaitlan Collins, the moderator of the CNN town hall. This is the claim at the center of the Dinesh D’Souza documentary 2000 Mules, released in May 2022, and it is a claim you’re likely to hear a lot more from the 2024 GOP front-runner over the course of the next year.

True the Vote, a Texas-based nonprofit, claims that by purchasing geo-location cellphone-tracking data it uncovered an elaborate scheme to steal the election. The scheme involved at least 2,000 people — the “mules” — who trafficked fraudulent ballots from liberal nonprofits to ballot drop boxes in the five key states that decided the election: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. True the Vote says it has obtained 4 million minutes — nearly 70,000 hours — of surveillance video of the drop boxes; the documentary shows a number of people dropping off a handful of ballots. “What you’re seeing is a crime: These are fraudulent votes,” D’Souza tells viewers as surveillance video shows one person dropping off a handful of ballots.

According to True the Vote, its criteria for detecting each of the “2,000 mules” is a cellphone that over the course of the month leading up to the election made at least five visits near a nonprofit and ten visits near different drop boxes. The organization estimates that the 2,000 mules made an average of 38 trips each to drop boxes, depositing an average of five ballots per trip, for a total of 380,000 fraudulent votes spread across the five states. In the documentary, D’Souza then runs the numbers: Without these ballots, Biden would still have won Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump would have narrowly prevailed in the Electoral College by eking out wins in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

For a conspiracy so vast, the outcome seems a little underwhelming: Subtracting the alleged voter fraud facilitated by the supposed 2,000 mules would have given Trump a victory of just one-third of one percentage point in Arizona and Georgia, and the conspirators would not have been confident in advance that a small number of votes would deliver the election to Biden. But D’Souza has a solution to bolster the theory: more mules. “No one thinks that our 2,000 mules were the only mules trafficking illegal votes,” he tells viewers. Taking D’Souza up on this proposition, True the Vote then lowers the threshold for determining who was a mule, counting cellphones that were detected near a minimum of five drop boxes rather than the original ten. “This revealed a huge upsurge in the number of mules, from 2,000 to 54,000 mules,” D’Souza says. Voilà! Without the 54,000 mules, Trump would have handily won each of the five states.

D’Souza told me he was too busy to grant an interview for this article, and a spokesman for True the Vote also did not accept an interview request. So I can’t be sure why the movie is not called “54,000 Mules,” but I suspect it is because that title would have made the biggest flaws in the conspiracy theory even more glaring.

Despite the supposed existence of 54,000 illegal-ballot traffickers who placed fraudulent ballots at multiple drop boxes, D’Souza and True the Vote have publicly named precisely none of them. Trump’s political operation, flush with tens of millions of dollars, has identified no mules. Republican attorneys general in Arizona and Georgia, desperate for Trump’s support, have been able to expose not a single mule. According to True the Vote’s anonymous sources, the mules are criminals working for $10 a ballot. To evade public detection over the past three years, these 54,000 petty criminals must somehow have maintained operational security and secrecy that would put SEAL Team Six to shame.

Despite the 70,000 hours of surveillance footage, the documentary does not actually show a single person making more than one trip to a ballot drop box. If there were 54,000 mules — or even just 2,000 — shouldn’t the footage have detected hundreds of them?

In the year since the documentary was released, some individuals shown dropping off a handful of ballots at a single drop box have been publicly identified by their vehicles’ license plates, but there is no evidence that they acted illegally. The Georgia secretary of state’s office investigated three cases and dismissed each of them. In one case, an investigator tracked down a man seen in the film dropping off five ballots and was able to interview him and confirm by consulting voter data that the ballots had been cast legally by his family members. It is permitted in Georgia and many states to drop off the ballots of family members.

According to 2000 Mules, five left-leaning nonprofits filled out a million or more fraudulent ballots. For these ballots to count, the nonprofits would have needed to identify hundreds of thousands of people registered to vote and to know in advance that they would not actually cast ballots. Tellingly, the documentary and True the Vote have not publicly named these nonprofits.

In August 2022, D’Souza was set to publish a book based on 2000 Mules in which he did name the nonprofits, but his publisher, Regnery, claiming a “publishing error,” pulled the book from stores before it went on sale. “True the Vote had no participation in this book, and has no knowledge of its contents,” the group said in a statement to NPR at the time. “This includes any allegations of activities of any specific organizations made in the book. We made no such allegations.” When Regnery released D’Souza’s book two months later, the passage naming the nonprofits had been excised, according to an NPR reporter who had obtained a copy of the first version of the book.

What about the geo-location data? Even if the purported data show exactly what True the Vote claims, it does not prove a conspiracy. It’s entirely plausible that Uber drivers or deliverymen would come within 100 feet of ten different drop boxes over the course of a month. FactCheck.org reported that activists and politicians in some states held get-out-the-vote rallies at multiple drop-box locations. “The premise that if you go by a box, five boxes, or whatever it was, you know that that’s a mule is just indefensible,” Trump’s attorney general Bill Barr said in testimony to the January 6 Committee. The geo-location data “didn’t establish widespread illegal harvesting.”

The Georgia Bureau of Investigation observed in September 2021 that, because there was no “other kind of evidence that connects these cell phones to ballot harvesting,” it lacked probable cause to open an investigation or get a search warrant to obtain the geo-location cellphone data: “For example, there are no statements of witnesses and no names of any potential defendants to interview. Saliently, it has been stated that there is ‘a source’ that can validate ballot-harvesting. Despite repeated requests that source has not been provided to either the GBI or to the FBI.”

The conspiracy at the heart of 2000 Mules looks even more preposterous when one examines the election results in Pennsylvania. The movie claims that mules were responsible for 275,000 fraudulent votes in Philadelphia alone (under the theory that there were only 2,000 mules in the five states). That would mean that nearly half of all votes cast for Biden in Philadelphia — and a majority of all mail ballots — were fraudulent, without anyone’s having detected the widespread fraud in real time. In 2020, Donald Trump’s margin in Philadelphia actually increased by nearly four percentage points over 2016, when Pennsylvania did not allow ballot drop boxes. While Trump carried Pennsylvania in 2016, he managed to lose it in 2020 because Biden did better than Hillary Clinton with white voters statewide.

In the end, the 2020 election was as simple as that. Trump improved his performance among minority voters nationwide but lost the Electoral College by sliding among white voters. It was not fraudulent vote dumps in America’s inner cities that cost him the election.

Those who understand why the 2020 conspiracy theories are false may find it exhausting to present the truth, fact by fact, but that task is important. Trump’s insistence on debunked voter-fraud claims has major implications for the country’s present and its future.

In ordinary circumstances, Trump’s loss in 2020 would be politically poisonous for him as he sought the 2024 GOP nomination. But by making it an article of faith among many GOP activists and voters that he really did win the 2020 election, he has made it harder for his rivals to attack him over his biggest vulnerabilities. But by indulging Trump’s voter-fraud conspiracies, another GOP candidate will seem weak and submissive — as if aiming to be Trump’s running mate instead of president. Pointing out that the emperor has no clothes — that Trump really did lose in 2020 to a doddering old man who campaigned from his basement — is probably the wiser course, but a successful Republican challenger would find a way to make that point without sounding like a resistance warrior on MSNBC.

Trump’s obsession with 2020 could matter far beyond the 2024 primary, of course. The 2022 midterm results showed that swing voters were repelled by candidates who embraced Trump’s “stop the steal” campaign; but if he wins the nomination and the general election, January 6 would serve as a litmus test for cabinet secretaries and lower-level Trump-administration staffers. Anyone who served in the first Trump administration and was publicly horrified by January 6 — an official such as Attorney General Bill Barr — would be persona non grata in a second Trump administration. Few officials who were horrified by Trump’s postelection conduct would want to serve under Trump anyway. A second Trump administration would have to scrape the very bottom of the staffing barrel.

And if he becomes the 2024 GOP nominee and loses again, it’s reasonable to assume that Trump would again try to overturn the election result through extraordinary measures. True, the system held in 2020, and a reform of the Electoral Count Act that passed in 2022 reinforced it. Trump would not have the powers of a sitting president. And in the states that will very likely decide the 2024 election, Trump will not have lackeys serving as governor, who play a key role in certifying Electoral College results. Republican Brian Kemp, who stood up to Trump’s efforts to overturn the Electoral College results in 2020, will still hold the governorship in Georgia, while Democrats will hold that post in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. But even a failed attempt — a second one, no less — by Trump and other political elites to overturn the decision of the voters would undermine the foundation of our democratic republic.

None of this, of course, is a future the country or the Republican Party is destined to face if enough primary voters simply choose to rally behind one other Republican presidential candidate.

I appreciate those links and I’m familiar with every one. Here is the evidence seems to have the largest database of info but is likewise the hardest to sort through.

And I’m glad to have and see those resources, but they in no way correlate to any action, or future plan by Donald Trump to do anything about it.

Has he ever even mentioned any of those resources that you are aware of? Not that I’m aware of. Best I can tell, he doesn’t even care one way or another if they even exist or not, much less be actively involved in their work, or Heaven forbid actually lead a project of his own. You know Soros has an organization that does that sort of thing, so does Mark Zuckerberg. Does Trump?

No Sir, when it comes to actual action, on investigating election crime, or more importantly cleaning it up, he is completely AWOL. It’s nothing more than a talking point, no matter how emotional and worked up he gets whenever it’s mentioned. My dad would have told me “well son you can’t just cry about something all the time. You have to either do something about it, or move on to something else so you don’t have to think about it, because no one wants to listen to a worthless crybaby all the time.”

I agree with you. I also have to say that he made a real effort to TANK the GA Senate races, and in that he prevailed. Plus, he is behaving idiotically to DeSantis, and now I am reverting to what I thought about him originally (and I am familiar him from his very first days in NYC), which is that he’s a buffoon. And this is what so many people, esp. women think about him.

I just don’t feel like he’s helping, and also sorry, but a lot of the covid over-reaction came from him. And he’s still at that in a lot of ways.

Trump does seem to have an out-of-office administration for addressing various errors on his part.

Meanwhile, I try to gather info.

For example, you might see my replies 59, 60, 61, and 62 at Kari Lake’s attorney: Evidence of rushed ballot verification warrants overturning 2022 election

Also, I am working up a list of the number of actual registered voters per state. This work requires online visits to the Secretary of State office for each state.

Otherwise, the statistics used by the media, by government, and many other organizations, are estimates based upon estimated information that is gathered by the U.S. Census. I'd qualify that, by saying, that a few organizations such as Judicial Watch and Heritage Foundation, probably have some reliable numbers/stats.

Some states offices have the information. Arkansas information is difficult to find, and they might do that on purpose. Because academics, the liberal media, and some organizations will use voter stats against a state - re the usual hammering: "chilling effect" and other slings and mud tossed from the left.

That said, Trump has had over two years, and $250 Million donated to him specifically to find out and present exactly what happened, and he has completely failed in conclusively proving anything illegal.

If you can't get a court to look at it, you can't prove anything. You blame Trump for our utterly garbage courts? They've been around long before him.

Ignoring the ridiculous courts and looking at the evidence directly, it is very clear that the elections in several swing states were completely rigged.

He never even really tried. He disappeared right after the election and went to work on his new website, where it’s apparent he believes just using a megaphone to whine into an echo chamber of disciples is more effective for maintaining control of his base than ever actually proving anything to the world at large.

Let me guess. You are on the DeSantis bandwagon? This stuff only makes sense if you want to believe that's what happened, but it makes no sense if you keep up with the reality of what happened.

But those that expect some actual proof, will continue to have just enough doubt that they don’t want to hear more whining about it,...

After all the numerous articles posted here on Free Republic have shown the proof over and over and over again, how can anyone that is on Free Republic still pretend that the evidence isn't massive and very conclusive?

95% of all military Ballots in Arizona went to Biden? Does that even make sense to you? That's like a Joseph Stalin election. It is false on the face of it.

The most damning thing besides Trump never providing any actual evidence, is that Trump hasn’t done a single thing to try to secure elections going forward,

And what is it you are imaging Trump can do about crooked elections in swing states? The people of those swing states have to do something, Trump can only urge them to do something, which seems to me exactly what he has been doing.

If you can't get a court to look at it, you can't prove anything.

The courts all told him, one after another, over and over, you can't contest an election until the election is decided, and you have actual damages that you can show which give you legal standing. Yes I know to the average layman that doesn't make sense, but that is the law.

Ask Kari Lake. When the same issue recently came up in Arizona (because Trump hasn't done squat to help fix the problems there), she told everyone that she had to wait until the election was officially decided before she could file her lawsuit, which she then did as soon as legally possible.

So what did Trump do, once the election was decided (Jan 7)? He took the $250M that had just been donated to him to contest the election, and went off to Silicon Valley to build a new website, instead.

Sure, I've seen a lot of stuff, already stated in this thread twice I have evidence of my own that's right there on my FR homepage and has been for 2.5 years now. But none of it came from Trump. He's not done a single thing to quantify and present anything himself, and more importantly, he clearly has no plan to do anything about it in the future either.

Sure, he'll wave his hands in the air during some rally and say we should only allow same day, in person voting, but that's the same empty promise he made back before 2020. Didn't help then and it won't help now.

95% of all military Ballots in Arizona went to Biden? Does that even make sense to you?

Doesn't sound legit to me. So what has Trump done about it? You do know that it is very important to start investigations quickly, while the trail of evidence is hot, not still be complaining two and a half years later while having done nothing.

The people of those swing states have to do something, Trump can only urge them to do something

Ridiculous. You don't know about George Soros having his own political storefront organization and boots on the ground in every swing state? Zuckerberg too, unfortunately guys like that have just outsmarted and outperformed Trump, who is all talk. Yeah he's a good talker, but talk is cheap, too. And the same old message gets old after while. Show me some progress on securing elections, not just the victim card all the time. He put mostly crooks in office while he was there anyway, so no wonder it got stolen.

“I made it clear that I believe something was at least odd about the 2020.”

Something was odd. Ha, ha... I don’t believe standup would be a bad career choice for you.

First, you must not be paying attention. Have you not seen what the FBI and DOJ are doing to both suppress and destroy anyone that questions the elections? Locking people up for years for peacefully walking through the capital. Destroying anyone’s life that dares goes against the narrative. Sending the IRS to destroy them when they can’t lock them up? But I guess the less you know the better you’ll sleep.

It seems many of these Trump-hating political analysts wish to triple-down and go on record as being clueless morons.

They are still calling 2020 an honest election and anyone who doubts it a domestic terrorist.

If it wasn’t obvious from the way Biden hid in his basement while Trump attracted record crowds…

- or the way every motivated Democrat voter wanted Bernie..

- or the fact that Biden supposedly got 10 million more votes than Obama ever got…

- or the fact that people actually went to jail or even killed for protesting the stolen election…

- or the fact that 120% of registered voters mailed in ballots in key swing state Democrat strongholds and Republican poll watchers were blocked from observing the vote count - etc, etc., etc.

Isn’t it at least obvious now that the election was stolen?

These so-called journalists are going to hell if there is one.
They are supposed to be our watchdogs - exposing government corruption - exposing the truth.

Instead, they lie to protect the corruption.

By “they”, I mean the MSM and the social media trolls that come on platforms like FR and spread the same lies.

That’s total BS.

The candidate’s job is to get the most votes and win - President Trump did that in 2020.

It’s not his job to enforce honest elections or to prove they were not honest - that’s the job of We the People - and we let him down.

We’ve been electing wimpy or corrupt representatives for decades - now all three branches of government are filled with crooks and weaklings.

Calling election fraud “irregularities” and then blaming it on the one man who has the courage to fight back - that’s really weak.

And then afterwards, they said it was too late to do anything about it. Catch 22 from our rotten idiot courts.

By "Trump" I assume you mean people working for him? I don't see Trump gathering up evidence. Even so, I would think Trump's people would just have to let others gather up the evidence because the scope of the evidence is beyond the ability of any small group of people. It has to come from people in each state where there were problems.

That piece of information didn't come out until the Cyber Ninjas audited Maricopa County Arizona. How was Trump supposed to find out about it in time to do anything about it? This was the Arizona legislature authorizing the Cyber Ninjas to look at the bullsh*t from 2020 is how we found out this little tidbit.

I'm getting the impression that you just don't want Trump, and that is driving most of your thinking.

Trump solicited donations for “election security” in December 2020, and an amazing $250M came in that one month, more than he was getting while campaigning by far.

Yet he took the money and ran in January 2021, the day after January 6.

He’s responsible for that whether you want to give him a pass or not. Our elections are still broken and that money was spent on other things. Nor does he even have a plan on what to do next. Other than “out vote the cheating” that he calls for at rallies. Ridiculous on all counts.

And then afterwards, they said it was too late to do anything about it. Catch 22

Completely false, Trump didn’t lift a finger after January 6 when his loss became official, and he finally had legal standing to contest it. He took the $250M he had just collected supposedly for that very purpose and split.

It has to come from people in each state where there were problems.

Clearly, but $250M is an enormous sum that should have been more than adequate to set up shops like Soros has. Or hire people like True the vote, I bet their yearly budget is a fraction of that. He did nothing, and still doesn’t even have a plan other than “out vote the cheating” which is doomed to fail. Again.

How was Trump supposed to find out about it in time to do anything about it?

What has he done since then is the question everyone is avoiding. Because the answer is obviously nothing.

I'm getting the impression that you just don't want Trump, and that is driving most of your thinking.

I was a huge supporter of Trump for years here on FR, even prior to 2016. The reason why was because he told the hard truth and got things done. Now he doesn’t do jack and just runs his mouth. Check my tagline for recent examples.

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