Posted on 04/04/2020 1:24:50 AM PDT by Enlightened1
Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).
Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.
The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:
The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)
Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)
Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)
Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)
Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)
New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)
Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
The job of people like Fauci is to do their best to prevent a logistical failure. They have to match resources to “where the fight is”. They probably should not have shared the method in which they do this. In their minds all they are trying to do is their jobs. People who don’t understand what’s happening just use the #s for their own agenda.
As much as we hate the government we really could lose something worse than losing the economy.
Thanks for posting these links.
With so few cases, why so few people transferred to the hospital ships? Here in Brooklyn, the city used the Amber Alert system to put out a call for anyone licensed in health care to contact the city.
It’s some bad stuff if the Amber Alert system is being used for other things.
Such as? In my county of 400,000 with 41 cases and no deaths,what started out as a joke is not funny anymore.
If they’d start giving out the quinine cocktail, they wouldn’t have to put a lot of these people in the hospital. That gd Fauci... and his anecdotal...
Be grateful.
Bttt
Sorry,it doesn’t work that way. When people start to worry about losing there livelihood and their homes for nothing it starts to go downhill fast. America is not New York City and central planning has proven a complete failure.
If you have a question i would be happy to address it, on the Q&A. No need to derail a thread.
What Q&A?
Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)
Nearly half of the cases in Virginia are in the Northern Virginia area outside of Washington, D.C.
This was planned. Someone should load up a plane with these seditious plotters and take them straight to Gitmo so they can’t escape before being brought to trial. What about their Constitutional rights you ask? Where was our Constitutional right to assemble, worship and run our businesses protected during this past month? Taking rights away has been the name of the game.
I have two coworkers with the disease.
The rate of growth in Louisiana and in specific parishes starts off at exponential growth.
the number of cases goes up by a factor of 10 every week.
eventually it slows to a powerlaw model and only increases by a factor of 10 every 10 days.
So:
Day 1 1 case
Day 7 10 cases
Day 14 100 cases
Day 21 1,000 cases
Day 28 10,000 cases
Deaths follow the same growth pattern but start 15 days after the first case.
In my county (Panola) in Texas, the first case was four days ago, and then it jumped to four cases yesterday, with the first death also happening yesterday. I know this is too small a sample to show anything, but the word I got was these cases were unrelated community spread. Everyone I know in the county (and, I know A LOT of people in the county) took this thing seriously and did everything they could to avoid it. I guess the next few days will tell the tale.
By simple estimates NY state could have up to 31000 dead at the end of this (assuming no therapy will help those who are vulnerable). That's a cumulative total until the epidemic subsides. It could be half that if you assume the coronavirus is no more contagious than a really bad flu epidemic (I assumed it will infect twice as many people as the influenza strain of 2017-2018).
So NY is looking at somewhere between 15000 to 31000 deaths because of the virus.
Many states aren't doing as badly and while I agree we should stop this shelter in place non-sense. Once we open back up for business the deaths will rise. I think people deserve to know so those that can choose to isolate can do so and those that continue with some personal protective equipment can feel confident they may be helping to prevent themselves from getting it.
At current hospitalization to death rates even if this is only as contagious as a bad influenza. You are looking at 250,000 (by my simple model). As much as I hope Hydroxychloriquine+azithromycin (and anything else you want to add on) will cut into that number. There are no statistics on how much it will do so. We don't even have enough supply to treat people on an outpatient basis if it did work. Which again is OK and we should get back to work but at least if this guy supplied a better model and we knew how well the "trump pills" work, people could start going back to work with some confidence they weren't playing Russian roulette.
Even if we go back to work, are you going to go to a crowded restaurant or any restaurant for that matter? The virus, until it subsides, is still going to make a ton of businesses fail. You getting on a plane? Are you going to visit NYC anytime soon? How about a movie theater or a concert. Anyone feel like going to one of those right now? The damage is done hopefully in a year or two things will get back to normal.
A projection model is exactly what it states it is. They take the numbers and based on past history and project in time future data. The historical data is relatively small in this case so the inaccuracies in the projection are large. Based on the historical data, two plots are developed. The worst case plot and the best case plot. These two plots are averaged to form the mean prediction. As the actual numbers come in, the plots are re-calculated so in time the mean becomes more accurate.
Kind of like when the hurricane experts predict 22 storms at the beginning of the season but keep revising that number until at the end of the season they can say “See I was right.”.
Two people can shut down an entire city. One virus, it would appear, can shut down an entire nation.
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