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Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers Are a Fraction of Expected
Red State ^ | 04/02/20 | Elizabeth Vaughn

Posted on 04/04/2020 1:24:50 AM PDT by Enlightened1

Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).

Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.

The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:

The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)

Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)

Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)

Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)

Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)

New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)

Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.

(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Health/Medicine; Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; cv19; data; disease; emptyhospitals; flu; fud; hospitalizations; hysteria; ihmemode; projected; shutdown; stats; swag; timeline
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To: Enlightened1

If the actual numbers come in far lower than what has been estimated, Trump will look like hero.


21 posted on 04/04/2020 3:40:57 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The Democratic Party is communism)
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To: Enlightened1

Ping


22 posted on 04/04/2020 3:42:43 AM PDT by spacejunkie2001
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To: spacejunkie2001

Laura Ingraham has showed the failure of this model on her last two programs.

there are people, including Fauci, who are determined to hype the reality. surely he should be the one to acknowledge this.


23 posted on 04/04/2020 3:50:57 AM PDT by MAGAthon ( Fauc)
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To: MAGAthon

The reporter from OANN needs to start asking Fauci some very pointed questions in these pressers.


24 posted on 04/04/2020 3:52:53 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: Enlightened1; Disestablishmentarian

FYI.

Thought this might be of interest.

Kinda validates your data


25 posted on 04/04/2020 4:12:53 AM PDT by thinden (How many Barr haters across America are being paid by Soros to attack Barr.)
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To: Enlightened1

Sort of reminds me of the data models used to force the climate change/global warming/global cooling farce on all of us in a vain attempt to get us to agree to pay more taxes.

JoMa


26 posted on 04/04/2020 4:12:58 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks.)
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To: SanchoP

Hamilton Co. TN near me has a similar population as yours and has had around 68 infections. All 68 originated from one person from what I read today. I think 3 have died and all were over 65.

My County, McMinn, has around 52,000 people and has had 3 infections with no deaths. All three were in the same family, only had mild symptoms, and were over it in two weeks.

Our infections in the state are around 3,000, around 300 hospitalizations, and 37 deaths, in the whole state. Nashville and Memphis have the most, naturally, but the Nashville area only had a total of 6 deaths as of yesterday. I’m sure those numbers will jump today. A lot of the deaths were from nursing homes from what I hear and a 5 year old girl in Bradley Co.


27 posted on 04/04/2020 4:13:33 AM PDT by Tennessee Conservative
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To: MAGAthon

Thank God the truth is starting to come out. I sincerely hope it strengthens Trump to end this charade


28 posted on 04/04/2020 4:31:37 AM PDT by spacejunkie2001
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To: SanchoP

God bless you, Sancho, for some measure of sanity.


29 posted on 04/04/2020 4:34:20 AM PDT by Maris Crane
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To: stig

“We don’t even have enough supply to treat people on an outpatient basis if it did work.”

India just ordered 100 million doses of the malaria medicine. I guess they think it works.

When do we order 100 million doses?


30 posted on 04/04/2020 4:38:03 AM PDT by CondorFlight
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To: Enlightened1
The "model" averages all locations for a general aggregate...and they acknowledge that it is being modified with each day's data...if everyone manages to keep their distance and not provide new hosts, the numbers (aggregate) go down...if a huge new hot spot or two emerge, the numbers go up...from the latest point in the model.

The process where they bump single places against a aggregate model, to show that the model is flawed, is a flawed process.

31 posted on 04/04/2020 4:47:54 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: Enlightened1
Flawed models fail to predict real world disaster? Now where have I heard that before?

*Cough*globull warming*Cough*

32 posted on 04/04/2020 4:58:41 AM PDT by Yo-Yo ( is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: trebb

Yesterday some reporter FINALLY cornered Birx on whether we would see the raw data behind these models. She seemed caught off guard and then said they’d make it available. The hustle may be coming to an end.


33 posted on 04/04/2020 5:01:53 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: Enlightened1

Does this mean 1 out of 7 New Yorkers won’t get COVID-17?


34 posted on 04/04/2020 5:41:26 AM PDT by NetAddicted (Just looking)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Buckeye McFrog wrote:

“Yesterday some reporter FINALLY cornered Birx on whether we would see the raw data behind these models. She seemed caught off guard and then said they’d make it available. The hustle may be coming to an end.”

Good that the question got asked!


35 posted on 04/04/2020 5:41:34 AM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: SanchoP

That’s a 0.01 infection rate with no death. Am I missing something?


36 posted on 04/04/2020 5:48:47 AM PDT by redangus
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To: stig

If you use Italy as an example and take their death/1M people and extrapolate it to here it shows a total death count of a little over 83,000 not 250,000. I believe Italy is considered the worse case scenario so your simple model would seem to be way off


37 posted on 04/04/2020 5:54:36 AM PDT by redangus
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To: Erik Latranyi

Or he’ll like a fool - watch the MSM start to spin the new talking points.


38 posted on 04/04/2020 5:55:27 AM PDT by nevermorelenore ( If My people will pray ....)
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To: nevermorelenore

*look like

It’s time for Sanity to SPEAK UP


39 posted on 04/04/2020 5:57:12 AM PDT by nevermorelenore ( If My people will pray ....)
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To: Enlightened1

The trend is your friend.

However.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst is still the way to go, in my opinion. This is no time to lighten up.


40 posted on 04/04/2020 5:58:52 AM PDT by Jim Noble (There is nothing racist in stating plainly what most people already know)
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