Posted on 10/15/2018 7:33:55 AM PDT by LS
Just a few observations that I see few people out there making.
1. Keep in mind that virtually ALL absentee ballots that are arriving now were MAILED on or about the time of the Judge K hearings & almost certainly will reflect that outrage.
2. I am hearing rumblings---can't put much solid behind it---that DemoKKKrats are really, really getting worried.
At every level. In AZ, Enema has just imploded with one scandal after another, in NV Heller has built his lead, in ND, MO, TX, and TN, the Rs have settled into solid leads (and no, Betamale has NEVER, EVER been close to Ted Cruz---but thanks for building a bonfire out of that $38m).
I have heard, for example, in MN, that MANY of the races are very close. Can't say more. In VA, word is that KrazyKlownKaine is worried, is sending his office staff out to do lit drops and that a poll now has him just up 5 against a weak candidate in a blue state.
Callers are telling me they noticed a sharp change 2 weeks ago with the Kavanaugh stuff, and Richard Baris's polling showed a DRAMATIC virtually overnight shift of 4-10 points in various states.
Don't believe what you hear about OH being a big Brown lead. Guys on the ground tell me Renacci just down "a couple" and they think the Trump visits will put him over.
2. SO FAR, absentee voting in both FL and OH looks EXACTLY like the presidential election year of 2016. This would be huge, and would be indicative of the "red wave." THE FACT IS: if they aren't calling the House early, the chances are we have held. If you see we held FL26, 27, KY6, NC's two seats, all but one of NY, and OH, it's a pretty good chance the Ds can't find enough seats in the rest of the country. We should know fairly early.
3. MANY indicators show the Ds are getting a reality bath that they will lose huge in the Senate and won't take the House: first, there was an article in the Hill or one of the mouthpiece organs saying "We might not know on election night who wins the House." Why is that? If it's a "blue wave," we'd know immediately if three or four NY seats go Dem, if a FL seat goes Dem, if an NC seat goes Dem. But the fact is, there is now really only one NY seat at risk (Tenney) and she is in a red district; that we'll lose 3 in PA through redistricting, but may flip one in NH; that NJ may see three losses. After that, though, NC is safe, TX is safe, OH is safe, Rossi way up in WA, both FL26 and FL27 are looking like "holds"; Andy Barr is safe; Mike Bishop is safe in MI (but we may lose Trott's seat); and the guys in IL look safe. We may lose one in IA (Blum), lose McSally's seat in AZ possibly.
On the other hand, we are now looking to flip at least two in MN, one in AZ, and one in NV for a total of four seats looking good. But there are a good five more seats (including the NH seat) that could flip D-R.
Bottom line, I have Ds gaining a floor of 10 seats net, a ceiling of 15 seats net, short of control However, our floor appears to be a loss of about 10 but our ceiling could be a loss of only 4 seats net.
BTW, a leading D analyst did his board and it's close to mine, saying Rs hold by 8 seats.
4. Bad news: Looks like Gillum's Island is for real in FL, a combo of a high black turnout (also in GA gov race) and DeSantis being weak. For ex., Baris's polling showed a whopping 62% of Floridians said they would NEVER vote for a "socialist" yet DeSantis is unable to make that label stick to Gillum's Island. As of now, I think Scott wins the Senate, DeSantis the Gov.
Florida also has the hurricane issue, which is seriously affecting absentee voting (traditionally R). Now, in 2 weeks it is possible that these vagabonds manage to get to the polls, but with lives disrupted it's not highly likely. This will affect Panhandle votes (red) but ALSO ironically will hit Gillum's Island's home base of Tallahassee, hurting him as well.
5. John James has made up some ground in MI. Don't think it's enough. Likewise, Leah Vukmir in WI---which should have been a pickup---has stalled and is depending on Walker to carry her across. He will win, but not by enough to help her.
6. Hugin appears to be the real deal in Joisey, and Manchin is leading by only a point. These are genuine pickup possibilities. Once Trump is confident AZ, NV, MT, and IN are locked down, you'll see him in WV and NJ.
I did NOT say McSally was losing. I think she will win by 5.
I said we would likely lose her House seat.
Yep, 3 is Kevin Yoder vs Sharice Davids. Last public polls completed at end of September. Emerson had Davids +6, NYT had Davids +8. Local scuttlebutt is that many GOP voters are supporting Davids, especially Johnson County women.
Former Phoenix Rat Mayor Greg Stanton is running for Kyrsten’s seat. His GOP opponent doesn’t have a lot of name recognition, Dr. Ferrara, also a veteran, he’s a good candidate. Stanton will probably win BARF!!!
Kyrsten is being carpet bombed for all the radical sh*tty things she’s said and done (and had been covered up until a few days ago).
The despicable Nasty RINO (former AG) Grant Woods already endorsed Kyrsten the FemiNazi Rat. He has talked about running for Juan McLame’s seat when Kyl retires in 2020. This endorsement will hurt his chances, GOOD!!
Enema is done. The dual Enema/Garcia collapse may dampen Ds in House races.
Do you have any new poll numbers? Last week, before the multiple scandals came out, McSally was up by 6.
I’d like to think Kyrsten is finished, but there’s a ton of out of state Rat money pouring in to attack McSally.
I don’t put anything past the filthy Rats, they have a lot invested in Kyrsten, trying to portray her as independent, bipartisan and moderate.
No new #s but I can’t imagine Enema has a chance. Remember TV ads are of very limited value anymore.
Oh, and a few weeks ago we were told DemoKKKrats in AZ had registered “65,000 new DemoKKKrats?” (That would have brought the R lead in the state down to 85,000!
Except today’s SecState updated numbers show Rs have 140,000 lead-—down just 10,000.
So as usual, some reporters were lying.
Latest NYT Live Poll on KS3
Kansas 3 Eastern Kansas suburbs
Can Democrats flip a reliably Republican seat?
Live
margin of error ±7
50% Davids
37% Yoder
10% Undecided
I have moved Yoder to a loss, but these NYT polls have extremely small samples.
Agree, especially this one. Nonetheless, Yoder is in trouble and I don't think that anyone is going to jump in and help him out. He has made his own bed, now he has to lie in it. The bad news is that Sharice Davids is as Left as they come. This district likes milquetoast moderates, preferably Democrats. Yoder fit well.
Yeah, I have him as one of our lost seats.
Looks like trump coming to central Wisconsin next Wednesday
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