[SunkenCiv]

Interesting. The maximum megatonnage (US + USSR) peaked in 1960, at 20,491.17 mt. This one rock is one tenth that large (mt-wise), and is fully 2/3rds of the current total of existing megatonnage (US + Russia; Chinese figures aren't on the table I'm using here).

Assuming a spherical object (for the sake of argument; I don't think any asteroids are close to being spherical), a doubling of diameter increases the total energy eightfold. Soooo, as the late Eugene Shoemaker noted some years ago, a half-mile-wide object would exceed the energy of all the nuclear weapons if they were put in a pile and set off simultaneously.

[Lazamataz]

Doesn't the Mayan calender end in the year 2029?

COINCIDENCE??????????????????????????????????

[SunkenCiv]

Google

[SunkenCiv]

Torino Impact Scale
http://128.102.32.13/impact/torino.cfm

"Can the Torino Scale value for an object change?

"Yes! It is important to note that the Torino Scale value for any object initially categorized as 1 or greater _will_ change with time. The change will result from improved measurements of the object's orbit showing, most likely in all cases, that the object will indeed miss the Earth. Thus, the most likely outcome for a newly discovered object is that it will ultimately be re-assigned to category 0."

http://128.102.32.13/impact/downloads/categories.txt

[SunkenCiv]

UPDATE:

Asteroid 2004 MN4 Torino rating increased to 4
NEO Information Centre
12/25/2004
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/news_display.cfm?code=news_intro&itemID=260

Merry Christmas everyone!

[SunkenCiv]

one problem with coverage on this is that those too quick to print some of these past hazardous NEOs got burned by their own sensationalism when subsequent observations showed no problem existed.

AIAA Position Paper on Protecting Earth from Impacts
Article Posted: November 04, 2004
By: David Morrison
http://128.102.32.13/impact/news_detail.cfm?ID=153

Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale
Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 23, 2004
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

[meatloaf]

Oh crap! We're all going to die ..... still.

[Recovering Hermit]

If I'm not dead by then I guess I'm gonna die.

Thanks for the heads up.

[SunkenCiv]

It's true, Torino scale 4 now.

2004 MN4 Impact Risk
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

[beyond the sea]

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

LOL! Maybe Social Security will be straightened out by then.

[Osage Orange]

I may drop dead while typing this messaiommmgda,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,unnnghhh

[SunkenCiv]

The Hazard of Near-Earth Asteroid Impacts on Earth
Frontiers ^ | 4 March 2004 | Clark R. Chapman
Posted on 12/02/2004 10:51:16 AM PST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1292915/posts

Argument for the Cometary Origin of the Biosphere
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1208497/posts

Astronomers unravel a mystery of the Dark Ages
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1070892/posts

Catastrophic event preceded Dark Ages -- scientist
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39b91ca42b27.htm

Celestial Collision
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1216757/posts

Early volcano victims discovered
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1207091/posts

Eltanin Impact Crater
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1248414/posts

Giant asteroid rocked Antarctica
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1248406/posts

Grains Found in Ga. Traced to Asteroid
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1198414/posts

Ice-Core Evidence Challenges 1620 BC date for the Santorini Eruption
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1180724/posts

Impact Event in 3114 BC? The beginning of a Turbulent Millennium
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/816604/posts

In the shadow of the Moon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1203912/posts

It Came from Outer Space?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1288537/posts

Peekskill Fireball -- October 9, 1992
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1234499/posts

Professor Says Mayan Calendar Does Not Portend Earth's Doom (2012AD)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/815326/posts

Reworked Images Reveal Hot Venus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1058128/posts

Shocked Quartz from Chesapeake Asteroid
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1198414/posts

Small Asteroid Passes Between Satellites and Earth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1307286/posts

Small Comets and Our Origins
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1250694/posts

When the Days Were Shorter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1234919/posts

[SunkenCiv]

Another related topic:

More on Asteroid Toutatis Passing Earth Sept 29th, 2004
Space.Com ^ | Sept 28th, 2004 | Robert Britt
Posted on 09/28/2004 5:34:19 PM PDT by missyme
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1229803/posts

[SunkenCiv]

four more, and offline I go...

Big comet plunging toward our Sun
Spaceweather.com ^ | 4-16-04 | Orlando
Posted on 04/16/2004 1:17:04 PM PDT by Orlando
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1119037/posts

Comets To Put On Morning Sky Show
BBC ^ | 4-20-2004 | David Whitehouse
Posted on 04/20/2004 6:42:32 PM PDT by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1121469/posts

Flashes, booms reported over Western Washington
Seatle Post Int ^ | 6/3/2004 | AP
Posted on 06/03/2004 5:38:41 AM PDT by Selene
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1146755/posts

Is Earth In Imminent Danger From Inbound Meteors?
Bush Country ^ | 05/02/04
Posted on 05/02/2004 10:11:06 AM PDT by justme346
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1128284/posts

[SunkenCiv]

a selection of related topics: Massive Tsunami Sweeps Atlantic Coast In Asteroid Impact Scenario (Surf's Up) UC Santa Cruz Press Release | May 27, 2003 | UC Santa Cruz Press Release Posted on 05/29/2003 9:57:14 AM PDT by Mike Darancette http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/919723/posts Hollywood fantasy? Tidal wave disaster is just waiting to happen The Guardian Unlimited ^ | August 10, 2004 | Ian Sample Posted on 08/11/2004 5:57:52 PM PDT by pepsi_junkie http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1189804/posts 'Rogue waves' reported by mariners get scientific backing yahoo news ^ | 7/21/04 | unknown Posted on 07/23/2004 1:25:25 AM PDT by Rebelbase http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1176910/posts Ship-sinking monster waves revealed by ESA satellites European Space Agency ^ | 7/21/04 Posted on 07/22/2004 10:25:27 PM PDT by uglybiker http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1176837/posts Ship-sinking Monstor Waves Revealed By ESA Satellites European Space Agency.

^ | 21 July 2004 Posted on 07/25/2004 12:36:29 AM PDT by Yosemitest http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1178061/posts http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1178061/posts?page=8#8 Books, Magazines, Movies, Music Amazon ^ | March 2004 | Anatoly T. Fomenko Posted on 07/11/2004 9:34:44 PM PDT by SunkenCiv http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1169550/posts http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1169550/posts?page=50#50 Giant wave could threaten US BBC ^ | 10 August 2004 Posted on 08/09/2004 8:34:11 PM PDT by FormerACLUmember http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1188396/posts Tidal wave threat 'over-hyped' BBC UK ^ | Oct. 30, 2004 Posted on 10/31/2004 9:35:18 AM PST by Company Man http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1263784/posts Tidal Waves Kill More Than 700 in Asia yahoo/AP ^ | 12-26-04 | LELY T. DJUHARI Posted on 12/26/2004 1:18:45 AM PST by sully777 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308542/posts Tidal Waves Kill More Than 3,200 in Asia (Update: Death toll now tops 11,500) AP ^ | Sun, Dec 26, 2004 Posted on 12/26/2004 2:09:10 AM PST by Grzegorz 246 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308556/posts Asian Tsunamis Surge Against East African Coast Reuters ^ | Dec 26, 2004 12:11 PM ET | C. Bryson Hull Posted on 12/26/2004 9:53:01 AM PST by sully777 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1308649/posts

[SunkenCiv]

off the subject, I'm pretty sure you are going to love the "mummies" video. I've been watching it for quite a while; it's detailed, it's beautifully shot in various quiet corners of Asia and in labs and such, and Malk's narration enhances the entire thing. Back to topic. Related topics:

Moon's Youngest Crater Discovered
BBC ^ | 12-20-2002
Posted on 12/19/2002 7:42:01 PM PST by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/809572/posts

NASA Solves Moon Mystery (+Geology Picture of the Week, February 16-22, 2003)
February 20, 2003 | Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Posted on 02/21/2003 1:47:27 PM PST by cogitator
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/848926/posts

New crater revives Moon mystery
11 January 2003
New Scientist
Jeff Hecht
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn3242

"A mysterious flash on the Moon caught on camera 50 years ago is still provoking disagreements about its origin. Astronomer Bonnie Buratti says her new results show that the flash was caused by a 20-metre asteroid hitting the Moon... In a future issue of the journal Icarus, Buratti reports a fresh impact scar at the site of the 1953 flash on images collected by the Clementine spacecraft as it orbited the Moon in 1994. A bright blanket of ejected material covers an area that is about 1.5 kilometres across, and the colour of the debris indicates that the crater is relatively new."

[SunkenCiv]

last couple of links:

The Sky Isn't Falling, But Pieces Sure Are
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 11:35 am ET
01 October 2003
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/chicken_little_031001.html

Chac 1.1.1
by Warren Anderson
a Mac program that generates Mayan calendar graphics
http://hyperarchive.lcs.mit.edu/HyperArchive/Archive/app/time/chac-111.hqx

"Chac is a mesoamerican calendar for the Macintosh... A prodigious quantity of complete [rubbish] has been published in books and especially on the internet about the calendar. Be careful what you read and believe. You can come to any conclusion you want when you do crappy research, falsify and misinterpret the evidence. Be a skeptic. Research this subject before you contact me with complaints about the way this program does the calculations. I do have a life outside of this program... Mesoamericans did calculations far into the past and future. This program only does them for thirteen baktuns. This is what the Mexicans refered to as the Fifth Sun. It started on September 6th, -3113 using the G.M.T. correlation. This is probably the most mis-stated date written about in books about the Maya. If you don't believe me, do the calculations yourself. The last day of the Fifth Sun is December 20th, 2012."

[note: the book "Lost Languages" places the beginning date on Aug 13 3114 BC, and the end date on Dec 23 2012; it could be that one or both were unaware of the vanishing days stemming from the Julian to Gregorian correction during the 17th through 20th century (depending on the country); chances are neither has read the FR topic about the problems with retrocalculated eclipses]

[SunkenCiv]

Good news, tortoise! The object is back to "1" on the Torino scale. I'd almost lost hope!

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[dog breath]

When it comes to destruction, I am a lot more worried about a Islamic nut with a nuclear device then I am about this asteroid. I would dig a big hole in my back yard and build a shelter, but I figure with the universe's dark sense of humor the thing would land right on me.

[SunkenCiv]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

"Analysis based on 139 observations spanning 287.71 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-27.8243)... computed on Dec 28, 2004"

The earliest date now is 4-13-2053, the last 4-14-2103. Watch the page at that link, it will probably change a lot from day to day.