Posted on 04/07/2008 4:30:58 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.97 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Its simple. California, New York and Ohio that are all that count. And they are Democratic bastions. We were lucky with Bush both times. It will never happen again.
I have said this before. No Republican will ever win again. The growth of the Hispanic, African-American populations, the “angry woman” factor, the general stupidity of youth and the greed of retirees have sentenced our country to a slow death.
I just looked at the New Hampshire projection.
That was all that I needed to see about the validity of this nonsense.
DC will go McCain. You heard it here first. (I will not be held responsible if you bet your farm on this prediction).
From your keyboard to God's computer.
:-)
There could be enough hostility between the Hussein and Hitlery camps that enough (you only need a couple of percentage points) go third-party.
I think that's what's going to happen. Which still sucks because we end up with a Liberal in the WH anyway.
I’m afraid you’re right. From now on, we are really going to survive “By the Grace of God”.
whitedog, I appreciate the passion in your post—and agree with most...just disagree on one point...our Republic is dying at a much faster rate than you suppose.
If Hillary screws Obama, 85% of blacks and guilty latte liberals won’t vote for her. In which case we’d end up with the neocon instead of the Stalinist. However, if the Leninist faces the neocon, I bet the Leninist wins because of the debates.
The map has an appearance of combining Hillary!08 and O’Bama into a single candidate. Illinois and New York both show nearly zero for McCain, which is unlikely.
Oh, our republic is doomed! This all sounds like defeatest democratic undergrounder crap. Only here it is the hispanics, African Americans, and women’s fault and not the BFEE, Cheney, and evil Haliburton. Whatever.
Lemme guess, your candidate did not win the primary, right?
You mean no conservative will win, sadly I agree.
There are some good buying opportunities on this board. I will buy New Hampshire, Colorado and Ohio to start and maybe Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Mad Money says NEVADA!
I agree about Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Pennsylvania (especially since Rendell will stick a big one in Obama)
BUY! BUY! BUY!
Just pathetic. McCain will win in November and you will have a huge gob of egg on your face.
Please don't quit your day job and go into political campaign consulting if you want to eat in the future.
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