Posted on 10/31/2010 10:00:19 AM PDT by Crichton
Semi-unofficial thread for election predictions.
SENATE. # of net Senate seats gained (ex: "9" - R's pick up 9 seats, lose 0)
GOVERNOR. # of Governor's seats HELD (ex: "30" - R's hold 30 governorships post-election)
HOUSE. # of net House seats gained (ex: "58" - R's pick up 60 seats, lose 2)
DETAIL. This is optional!! Race-specific predictions for selected competitive races (as listed in example). I have used the current RCP tossup races for this category.
UPSETS. One upset prediction for each category (House, Senate, Gov)
Ping! Please post your election prediction in this or any format you prefer.
You left out Nevada 3rd.
Senate +11
House +111 for a super majority
Gov total R 37
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html
MOST LIKELY PREDICTION:
————> DNC vote fraud. Every possible way.
Coverup by the DOJ and Holder. No news at 11.
Senate: +13=15
House +106-125
J.S.
Senate R +11
House R +98
That’s a pretty safe bet..The Dems don’t have any new ideas just Vote Fraud and scaring voters. Look out for Democrat UN-Dead voting at the polls! Happy Halloween.
Halloween joke:
435 D+
100 D+
50 D+
It could really happen! Trick Or Treat!
Sentate +9 (50R-48D-2I)
Governor 32 Toatl R
House +61 for our side.
I’m only going to tackle the House. I agree with most of your choices, except maybe:
AZ-7: D (Too big of a hill for McClung to climb, but hope I’m surprised.)
ID-1: R (Deep red state ticked off big time against DC.)
IL-10: R (Dold’s picking up steam.)
PA-12: D (The people there are brain dead.)
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Huckabee said the best way to scare a democrat this Halloween was to dress up as a voter.
Obama declares martial law and cancels the election in November.
House: 48-57 (52)
-PJ
Current alignment: 57 D + 2 Inds. who caucus with Ds, 41 R. So for all intents and purposes, 59 D, 41 R. Seats up: 37, including 3 for less than a full term (DE, NY, WV). Of the 37, Ds hold 19, Rs hold 18.
Prediction: Net R gain of 9. [R gains: PA, IN, IL, AR, WI, ND, CO, NV, WA. D gains: none. R holds in key races: NH, NC, FL, KY, OH, MO, AK. D holds in key races: DE, WV, CA.] New alignment: 50 D, 50 R; Dems keep control with Slow Joe as tiebreaker.
Upset special: Rossi (R) over Patty Murray (D) in WA.
U.S. House
Current alignment: 255 D, 178 R, 2 vacant. All 435 seats up, of course.
Prediction: Net R gain of 58, including wins in both vacant seats (which were 1 D and 1 R when last occupied), net D loss of 56. New alignment: 236 R, 199 D.
Upset special: Mick Mulvaney (R) over John Spratt (D) in SC-5. (Maybe not an upset any more, as Mulvaney has taken a lead in one poll, and is tied in another couple, but I want credit for calling this one months ago, when Spratt was leading big. This may be the highest-ranking Committee Chairman (Budget) to lose his House seat, should that eventuate. SC-5, in north-central South Carolina, was mostly rural when Spratt first won in 1982; increasingly, it is filling up with Charlotte commuters, most of whom are Republicans.)
Governors
Current alignment: 26 D, 23 R, 1 Ind. (Crist, FL). Seats up: 37, including one election for less than a full term (UT). Of the 37, Ds hold 19, Rs hold 18 (same stats as U.S. Senate, coincidentally enough).
Prediction: Net R gain of 8, net D loss of 8, Ind. no net change (lose FL, gain RI). New alignment: 31 R, 18 D, 1 Ind.
Upset special: Chris Dudley (R) over John Kitzhaber (D) in OR.
State Assemblies
There are 99 state legislative bodies (Nebraska's legislature is unicameral, and nonpartisan). Current alignment: 61 D, 37 R, 1 non-partisan. Of the 99 legislative bodies, all or part of 88 are up for election.
Very important this year, because most state legislatures control Congressional redistricting, or share that power with their Governors, as well as redistricting of their own legislatures, which will occur next year, after the release of the 2010 Census.
Prediction: Net R gain of 16 chambers. New alignment of state legislative chambers: 53 R, 45 D, 1 non-partisan.
Upset special: Republicans take control of NC Senate and NC House. Note that unlike most states, the NC Governor (Bev Perdue, D) does not have veto powers in redistricting matters. Control of both houses of the NC General Assembly could very well flip the Congressional delegation from 8 D, 5 R to 9 R, 4 D, even if Tuesday's elections don't make progress in that direction.
Eh... I’ve already stuck my neck out far enough by predicting we’d pick up 4 House seats in NC, and take the state legislature. I have a bad track record from 06 and 08 and wouldn’t want to jinx anyone. :)
It's shocking, but I really think NC is riding the wave in a big way.
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