Posted on 10/30/2014 8:11:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Right, you posted some numbers in September, but not in June.
Do yo0u think we will have a billion infections by 2016?
“So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
Election Day, 2016 = Disease burns itself out because it ran out of people a couple of months ago (98.304 billion cases by Nov 1, 2016 based on monthly doubling)
All of this will be true IF the disease keeps doubling cases each month, which it has been since May 2014.
That should be an easier way for you to track where this is going based on the numbers WHO is publishing. You go up and look at what the Oct 1 number and you pray I’m wrong. When Nov 1 rolls around, do the same thing, and so on.”
There were, and always are, caveats with an infectious disease.
Epidemiology is math - differential equations. These equations essentially factor in the speeds of things.
If you have a tank filling with water, and the tank has an outpipe that is smaller than the inpipe, then the tank will still fill, but more slowly. That’s a simplified sort of model.
In Sep, three things were true:
1. The test for Ebola was not very good (still true)
2. There is no vaccine (still true enough - there are vaccines under development)
3. There are no serums or drugs effective against the disease (evidence suggests this may no longer be true. What is very true is that these drugs are not being used on a wide spread basis).
In Liberia, a doctor was successful treating Ebola Guinea with Lamivudine. There are others that ARE NOT ZMapp (when’s the last time you heard the word ZMapp) that have similar methods of action to Lamivudine that may be effective.
Black Agnes has a pretty good bead on the pharmaceutical angle.
The basic model breaks down in terms of three groups - Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered
However, the model also has variables that impact it - like ‘Interventions’ and ‘Mortality’.
Interventions would be the use of quarantines, etc.
Mortality is, obviously, the dead. Eventually you run out of people to infect.
A big deal variable in this is called R nought, or R0, or the secondary infection rate. With this disease it only takes as little as 10 viruses in a droplet to infect a person. On top of that, we don’t really know when people start shedding the virus.
As long as R0 is bigger than 1, then the disease will continue to grow. Interventions drive the R0 less than 1, which means the disease will begin to burn itself out.
The current R0, globally, is about 2 - maybe higher given that the WHO is actively conditioning their figures (by a factor of 3).
AIDS drugs are being looked at as possible effective interventions. As for a vaccine, the REAL question is WHEN you can deploy it. For a vaccine to be effective in stopping a disease, you have to vaccinate enough people to choke out the number of Susceptible Class people from the path of the contagion. You can calculate the percent using R0:
1 - 1/R0, stated in percent, is the proportion of the population you need to vaccinate for the vaccine to stop the disease. If R0 = 2, then 1 - 1/2 = 50% need to be vaccinated.
That’s a lot of vaccine.
So, the long answer is:
1. If there is no vaccine by June 2015 - Yes.
2. If there is no effective drug intervention (AIDS drugs perhaps) - Yes.
Quarantines CAN WORK, and have worked throughout history. If we don’t quarantine, then again, Yes.
The disease will reach a tipping point - the disease popping up in too many places spreading too rapidly to contain without either a drug or a vaccine, and too fast to contain with a quarantine.
Or, we will come up with effective interventions. All my post did was indicate the mathematical pattern.
So do you still think a billion will be infected by 2016?
“So do you still think a billion will be infected by 2016?”
I sure hope not.
they’ve known all of this all along - - the white hut is controlling the message - as much as it can.
They can’t control information like they could before the net
Meryl /Merle Nass’s claim to fame was writing a paper published in RFed Flags Weekly. She has ties to Cuba.
1993 : (NASS TRAVELS TO CUBA) By Meryl Nass, MD. ... “In 1993, I went to Cuba as a consultant to the Cuban Ministry of Health. ...” - Red Flags Weekly
1992 : (ANTHRAX ARTICLE BY MERYL NASS - See the groups PHYSICIANS FOR SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY & Institute for Molecular Medicine [affiliated with “Contaminated Veterans of America”], BARBARA HATCH ROSENBERG, AMERITHRAX, CUBA, HATFILL ) No one ever has provided any evidence showing that the Rhodesian army carried out anthrax attacks, much less that Hatfill participated in them. Kristof and company merely are regurgitating a tainted 1992 article by longtime Rosenberg associate Meryl Nass. The Nass report purported to explain the 1978-80 anthrax outbreak that affected 10,000 black farmers, predominantly with cutaneous anthrax, killing 182. In her “explanation,” Nass leaped from one politically loaded speculation to another without any evidence.
The flamboyant, brilliant Hatfill earned his medical degree in Rhodesia in the late 1970s and early 1980s while serving in U.S. and Rhodesian special forces. In Rhodesia, he fought against communist guerrillas. One must recall that in Rhodesia — now named Zimbabwe, and ruled since 1980 by genocidal communist Robert Mugabe — the choice was never between apartheid and freedom, but rather between white or black apartheid.
— “Media Manufacture Cloud of Suspicion Over Hatfill,” By Nicholas Stix , Washington Times’ Insight On the News, Posted Aug. 14, 2002, http://www.insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/260804.html.
2003 : (BOOKDEALS—— NASS CITED AS CONTRIBUTOR TO BOOK BY ELLEN RAY {See MICHAEL RATNER} & SCHAAP )
Bioterror: Manufacturing Wars the American Way
Ellen Ray and William H. Schaap (ed.)
Publisher : Ocean Press
Published : 2003
Copyright : Ellen Ray and William H. Schaap 2003
ISBN : PB 1-876175-64-8
********
ALSO SEE :
Amazon.com: Ellen Ray: Books
She and her pals led the witch hunt against Hatfill... wasn’t Hatfill one of the US’s big ebola researchers?
ping, .... Meryl Nass of the Amerithrax days appears again
From an old post on an anthrx thread:
Meryl worked for Cuba once, so she has admitted in her publications in Red Flags Weekly and supposedly in testimony in court relating to the anthrax thing, if I recall correctly. She was, so she says, there in Cuba working for the Cuban Ministry of Health to do some investigation of a disease which was supposedly causing blindness in people in Cuba. The Cuban government blamed this disease on American bioterrorism, and supposedly they sought out this obscure doctor from Maine to come help them. Which is of course doubtful, because as near as I can tell she is not an expert on anything although she has ‘played one on TV,’ so to speak. So why would she go to Cuba and why would Cuba bother with her? I don’t know but I doubt very much that it was because of medical skill.
But she does have one thing in her background which would interest Cuba; she helped a group of nutjob greeny peace activists to harass a researcher at a university in Amherst, Mass., who was studying biowarfare countermeasures on a grant from the DOD. The guy finally left the University.
Reminds me of the nutbag socialist Ehrenreich who Thou Worm posted about a while back:
***********
www.DiscoverTheNetwork.org Date: 8/8/2011 5:29:28 PM
BARBARA EHRENREICH
Ehrenreich
•Socialist
•Feminist
•Sixties radical
•Honorary Chairwoman of the Democratic Socialists of America
•Author of Nickel and Dimed
Barbara Ehrenreich is a well-known socialist, feminist, and social critic. A self-described fourth-generation atheist, she has authored more than twenty books, including Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting by in America (2001). Between 1994 and 1998, she was a regular columnist for Time magazine. Today her editorials appear commonly in The Progressive. She also has written for The New York Times, Mother Jones, The Atlantic Monthly, Ms., The New Republic, Z Magazine, The Nation, and the socialist online publication In These Times.
Ehrenreich was born in August 1941 in Butte, Montana. In 1963 she graduated from Reed College, where she majored in physics, and in 1968 she received a Ph.D. in cell biology from Rockefeller University.
After completing her studies, Ehrenreich turned her attention to political and anti-war activism. She met her first husband, John Ehrenreich, during an anti-Vietnam War campaign. Together they would parent two children, Rosa and Benjamin, before eventually divorcing.
"With the birth of my first child in 1970," writes Ehrenreich, "I underwent a political, as well as a personal, transformation. I’d never thought much about my gender, but the prenatal care I received at a hospital clinic showed me that PhD’s were not immune from the vilest forms of sexism. Bit by bit, I got involved with what we then called the 'women’s health movement,' advocating for better health care for women and greater access to health information than we had at that time."
In 1983 Ehrenreich married a union organizer named Gary Stevenson, whom she would divorce in the early 1990s.
Candid about her affinity for Marxism, Ehrenreich is the Honorary Chairwoman of the Democratic Socialists of America. When the Communist Manifesto was re-released on its 150th anniversary in 1998, Ehrenreich celebrated the event. She noted that in producing the Manifesto as a commercial product, capitalists were -- as Lenin had once predicted -- providing the rope that eventually would hang them.
In 1998 and 2000, Ehrenreich taught essay-writing at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism.
In a November 1999 article for The Humanist, Ehrenreich wrote that religions are essentially the same as cults, the only difference being the number of people involved. She described Catholicism as "a hundred million people bowing down before a flesh-hating, elderly celibate." The Republican Party, she said, is composed of "a few million gun-toting, Armageddon-ready Baptists." And she recounted her childhood horror at having to say the Pledge of Allegiance in school, especially after the words "under God" were inserted.
In her 2001 book Nickel and Dimed (which is assigned to students on more than 600 college campuses nationwide), Ehrenreich asserts that atheism is the tradition of the working class. She refers to Jesus as a "wine-guzzling vagrant and precocious socialist"; she writes that a precursor of the trade union movement was a working-class atheism called the free thought movement, which sprang from "poor people whose distrust of priests and ministers was part and parcel of their hatred of bosses and bankers"; and she reasons that if the people with power and money are not going to hand their assets over to those without, then there must be no God. "If there is no God or no evidence of God and certainly no evidence of a very morally engaged god," she writes, "then whatever has to be done has to be done by us."
In the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Ehrenreich wrote that the real threats to America were not Islamic terrorists, but poverty, illiteracy, and environmental degradation. In an interview with On the Page, she recoiled at the characterization of the 9/11 terrorists as evil:
"The word evil always makes me nervous. It's not just a more intense form of bad; it's usually a signal that we've stopped thinking.... The real challenge is to look at the terrible acts and try to work our way towards an understanding of how a human being might undertake them."
The interviewer asked, "Which would involve some level of compassion?" Ehrenreich replied, "Maybe not compassion, but an empathetic ability."
On September 20, 2001, Ehrenreich was a guest speaker at a New York City gathering to honor the work of Richard Cloward (co-creator of the Cloward-Piven Strategy), who had died a month earlier. Other speakers included such notables as Howard Zinn, Joel Rogers, June Jordan, Gus Newport, Tim Sampson, Cornel West, Miles Rappaport, and Frances Fox Piven.
In 2003 Ehrenreich was a signatory to the widely publicized Not in Our Name (NION) "Statement of Conscience," which asserted that America's war on terror posed "grave dangers to the people of the world" in the form of "[w]ar and repression" that "has been loosed on the world by the Bush Administration ... [in] a spirit of revenge." NION was a project of C. Clark Kissinger’s Revolutionary Communist Party.
During the summer of 2003, Ehrenreich joined a number of fellow socialists in signing onto a "Campaign for Peace and Democracy" statement suggesting that repression in Cuba could ultimately be traced to America's opposition to the Castro government, and denouncing "six decades of [U.S.] exploitation and imperial control of Cuba." The statement further characterized U.S. involvement in Latin America as "criminal."
In 2006 Ehrenreich endorsed the "Women Say No to War" campaign, which demanded the complete and prompt withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, on grounds that "the foreign occupation of Iraq has fueled an armed movement against it, perpetuating an endless cycle of violence." Other endorsers included Cindy Sheehan, Susan Sarandon,Lynn Woolsey, Cynthia McKinney, and Barbara Lee. The campaign was initiated by Code Pink for Peace.
Ehrenreich has been honored with a Guggenheim Fellowship; a grant for Research and Writing from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; the Ford Foundation's Award for Humanistic Perspectives on Contemporary Society; and The Nation Institute/Puffin Foundation Prize for Creative Citizenship, which is given to an individuals who challenge the status quo "through distinctive, courageous, imaginative, socially responsible work of significance."
In a February 2008 blog appearing on AlterNet, Ehrenreich expressed her support for Senator Barack Obama's presidential bid, writing: "We, perhaps white people especially, look to him for atonement and redemption. All of us, of whatever race, want a fresh start. That's what 'change' means right now: Get us out of here!"
Ehrenreich is a board member of NORML -- the National Organization for Reform of Marijuana Laws, a pro-legalization marijuana lobby. She currently lives and works near Key West, Florida.
Ehrenreich is a great admirer of Institute for Public Accuracy founder Norman Solomon, calling him "one of the sharpest media-watchers in the business." 7 posted on 8/8/2011 7:02:20 PM by thouworm (.)
They tested that theory in West Point, but it turns out people avoided touching the dying and dead and the disease was kept in check using home-made disease control and ambulance services: http://online.wsj.com/articles/liberian-slum-takes-ebola-treatment-into-its-own-hands-1414080932
The disease simply cannot double each month without keeping the dying at home, washing the dead, etc. Even a modest effort like in West Point is enough to avoid your scenario and non-third-world countries have zero chance of your scenario.
So, must not Obama be quarantined?
I vote yes...... his kids can’t go to school either
Your calculations are based on reported numbers. The disease is in Africa.
There is absolutely no reason to believe the reported numbers that are certainly on the low side. The Africans simply have no way to provide an accurate count.
“Your calculations are based on reported numbers. “
My calculations are based on conservative numbers. As conservative as they are, they have been exceeded by the numbers reported by WHO.
Make of that what you will.
Let’s hope you’re right. So far, doctors and nurses are dropping like flies and they are failing to contain it, period.
Again, my numbers are pathetically understated.
His worst case scenario in a crowded plane, airport, city, etc resulted in 20 infections and 8 deaths, but no seondary deaths.
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