2016-0307 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

FreeRepublic | March 7, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2016-0307 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

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This week's presidential primary numbers include the primaries from Saturday and Sunday for the GOP and DNC.

On the Republican side, this included Kentucky, Maine, Louisiana, Kansas, and Puerto Rico. On the Democrat side, it included Nebraska, Kansas, Louisian, Maine, and American Samoa.

GOP Results:
Doanld Trump won Louisiana and Kentucky, though in both states he was contested fairly closely by Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz won going away in Maine and Kansas. And Marco Rubio won his second contest by a huge majority in Puerto Rico.

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This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 3.5 million popular vote total compared to right at 3 million for Ted cruz, and about 2.2 million for Marco Rubio. Altogether well over ten million people have voted in the GOP Primaries to date, and they are setting record turnout in almost every contest.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Cruz won the delgate count this weekend, taking in a total of 74. Donald Trump took in 62, Marco Rubio took in 34, and John Kasich picked up 8.

The total delgate count to date, by these numbers, shows Donald Trump in 1st place with 399 delegates, Ted Cruz closing somewhat in 2nd place at 306, Marco Rubio well back in 3rd with 152 delegates, and John Kasich a very distant 4th with 35 delgates.

GOP Analysis:
Donald Trump remains the clear front runner, and an individual who clearly represents the principle anti-establishment candidate for a large part of the GOP voters.

However, this was the first time Ted cruz picked up delegates over all in a multi-state vote. Donald Trunp has now won 12 contests, Ted Cruz 6, and Marco Rubio 2. The vote on Tuesday, March 8th, where Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii vote, will be another indicator on whether the trends regarding Donald Trump and Ted Cruz pulling away as a two man race will continue.

But the principle defining point will occurr on March 15th when Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North carolina and Missouri vote. Many of those are winner take all contests.

Should Donald Trump win both Florida and Ohio on the 15th, his position as the clear front runner and odds on favorite of winning the nomination hands down before the convention will be firmly established.

At this point, Florida is polling very solidly in favor of Donald Trump, and he is also winning in Ohio, though both John Kasich and Ted cruz are challenging him there.

If Donald Trump wins only one of those two states, and Ted Cruz otherwise continues to gain strong delgetae counts through winning several other states and placing well in proportional states, he will have a chance of winning enough delegates to deny Donald Trump and out and out win.

If Marco Rubio loses Florida, it will be clear that his campaign and candidacy, in terms of any chance whatsoever of winning, or of even challenging Donald Trump seriously, will be over.

That will also be the case for John Kasich in Ohio.

Summarrizing, if, on March 15th, Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, is is unlikely that anyone will be able to stop him from winning the GOP nomination outright.

If Trump loses either Ohio or Florida, and particularly if he loses both, then Ted Cruz will be the candidate who will emerge with an outside chance of actually outright winning the nomination, and, with a stronger chance of winning enough delgates to deny Trump the outright nomination, leading to a GOP convention fight.

DNC Results:
Of the five contests this last weeked, Bernie Sanders won three of them on the Democratic side, Nebraska, Kansas and Maine. Hillary Clinton won the other two, Louisiana and American Samoa.

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Hillary Clinton now enjoys a large lead in terms of overall popular vote. she now has a total of well over 4 million votes to 2.5 million votes for Bernie Stnders. A total of over 6.5 million votes have been cast by Democratic voters...far less than the Republican turnout.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Hillary cliton won a total of 93 delegates this last weekend compared to Bernie Sander's 75. This further increased Hillary Clinton's overall delgate count to 861 delegates (not including super delgates in other states that have already committed to Clinton) to Benie Sander's 498. When you add super delegates in those other states that have not voted yet who have already declared for Hillary, her total is approaching 1200, more than halfway to those needed to win her the nomination.

DNC Analysis:
Clearly, Bernie Sanders is going to continue to win some states and accumulate delegates. In fact, he is collecting far more than would have been thought possible for an individual who for most of his career has not been a registered Democrat, and who has openly delcarled himself a socialist. This plays to some inherent weaknesess in Hillary Clitnon in terms of her overall candidacy. She has very high negatives, and as in the GOP, there is a significantnumber in the Democrat Party who view the democratic establishment as failed and who want an outsider. Bernie Saners represents that on the democrat side.

Just the same, it is clear that barring other outside influences or situations, that Hillary clinton will win the DNC Nomination for President.

Enter HIllary's email scandal.

The actual contest in this election with Hillary is Hillary versus the FBI. There is a criminal investigation going on into Hillary's use of a private email server for many of her governmnet business emails while she was Secretary of state. Such use is defintely against US Government policy, and against the law. Last week the individual who owned the service that set up the private server for Hillary Clinton, who had to date pled the 5th amdendment when testifying on the subject, apparently turned state's evidence and was granted immunity and protection by the FBI.

This could lead to very damaging testimony in the case. Should Hillary Clinton hersllf be called to testify in the criminal case...she will take a hit. If the FBI ultimately recommends to prosecute Hillary in this case, it is hard to see how her candidacy remains viable...in which case it is likely that the DNC will have a brokered convention itself and have to select another niminee. If that turns out to be someone other than BErnie, there will be a fracture in the DNC over this.

Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sanders is going to have a good sowing, but his delegate count is likely to fall well short of denyoing HIllary the nomination.

However...if the FBI indicts Hillary clinton, this will throw the DNC into a furor. If that happens, Hillary will be damaged, perhaps beyond repair, and cetrtainly in terms of her electability.

This might allow Bernie Sanders to be the nomineee...it might also lead to a brokered DNC convention which could produce an entirely different candidate.

OTHER DATA:

Here are some other charts of interest.

GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

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DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

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[Jeff Head]

There is no doubt, IMHO, that there is a LOT more energy in the GOP primaries this election.

Well over, or at the lest near, record numbers in every single race.

Only a couple of records so far in the DNC, and most are substantially less than the last few.

Now, whether that will turn into the same thing in November is the real question. I have to believe that the more energy and excitement you have in the primaries, the more you would have in the general...but it may not necessarily be true.

Let’s hope it is.

[Squantos]

Predict a landslide win when Trump names Sanders as his VP ......:o)

< / SARCASM>

[irish guard]

Both the democrat candidates are awful, which belies the vote total. Lots here are all over the map on candidate and out to punish certain republicans. We’ve just spent seven plus years under awful democrat rule. Worst ever. The last thing I want is another four years of a democrat. Personally I can live with any of the four left compared to the two Dems. Oh I have my preference out of the four, but I sure as heck don’t want the Hilda Beast

[grey_whiskers]

One important point, Jeff.

Cruz lost Texas by 500,000 or 600,000 votes. Yet he is still up overall by 500,000 votes.

Now, you might be tempted to say, "Shut up, Trumpster."

But it is important for this reason: In the fall, voting will not be limited to committed voters who are involved, and willing to spend an hour or more sitting at a caucus. This means that more "everyday" votes will come into play: and these will be less informed. (That cuts every which way: there will be those who listen to attack ads against Trump as KKK Nazi, as well as those who say "Frick Yeah! Build the Wall !" ; and those who say "Finally, with Cruz we have a committed Christian!" as well as those who say, "Yeah, that Bible Thumper *ought* to be committed, and the sooner the better." Also, the voting will not be limited to Republicans: hence the possibility of crossover votes from the Dems will matter.

What this means is, the larger the number of absolute votes, from the larger number of states, the better. The Dems start out with the deck stacked in their favor in the electoral college: if Trump can put just 1 or 2 reliable Dem states into serious play, he changes the entire dynamic of the race: and I do not yet see evidence that Cruz plays well outside of traditional GOP states -- not when there's a Democrat in the mix.

Thanks for taking time to sift through this, make it pretty, and post all of it!

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Thank you so much!