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The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | March 31st, 2016 | Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 03/31/2016 5:42:07 AM PDT by Brilliant

The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.

Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!...

Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans).

Over the years we’ve put much emphasis on the seven super-swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. While some will fall to the Democrats less readily than others, it is difficult to see any that Trump is likely to grab. In fact, four normally Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) would be somewhat less secure for the GOP than usual. North Carolina, which normally leans slightly to the GOP, would also be well within Clinton’s grasp in this election after being Mitt Romney’s closest win in 2012...

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; clinton; demagogicparty; election2016; geoffreyskelley; hillary; kylekondik; larryjsabato; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; trump
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To: Brilliant

don’t know until then, but I can only go fro what I see and hear here and there are os many people here fed up of the establishment and cruz and has said there is no way if Trump is cheated out of this that they will vote for anyone else.

Sad it came to this as this was in the bag for us all, but instead the establishment doe snot want what most of us want and would rather fight to get their own guy, even using cruz and Kasich to do it.


21 posted on 03/31/2016 6:32:50 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Brilliant

Trump does well with Evangelical, and a lot better with Blacks than Romney did.

The question is who turns out the vote, and Trump will.

Trump wins in NY, Fl, NJ and NV.


22 posted on 03/31/2016 6:36:38 AM PDT by Zenjitsuman (Y)
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To: outpostinmass2

Beats me. I only mention it because it seems to be a real phenomenon. I think it’s less that they like Hillary and more that they don’t like Trump.


23 posted on 03/31/2016 6:58:36 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Zenjitsuman

I think Cruz will do well with Evangelicals in Florida. Not with blacks, but then I doubt many Florida blacks will vote for Trump over Hillary, either. Much of Trump’s argument to blacks is directed to black workers who want tariffs to protect their jobs. Florida really doesn’t have much of a manufacturing industry, so I don’t think that’s going to make much difference in Florida. The other part of it is immigration, but immigration is a two-edged sword in Florida.


24 posted on 03/31/2016 7:03:36 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: TomGuy

“Why will carpetbagger Hillary take most of the NE states, rather than Trump?”

Because prior to getting into politics Donald Trump was known here basically as a Reality TV star and a big developer. Reality star might help him (name recognition etc.) but big developer is the kiss of death (since the connotation of big developers rightly or wrongly is that of a sleazy land raping, back room deal making hucksters who come in make money and leave the municipalities/taxpayers with all kinds of problems to deal with later).

I am not saying it is fair but that is the way many many people look at it. Mr Trump was not a widely beloved personality in the NE before he entered the race.


25 posted on 03/31/2016 7:18:09 AM PDT by XRdsRev (New Jersey - Crossroads of the American Revolution)
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To: Brilliant

We had two strong candidates who were not beholden to the GOPe that we have managed to completely destroy through character assassination. They are now both total non-factors in the general election.

Nice work, conservative movement.

If anything, I think Sabato is too optimistic about the Republicans’ chances in November.


26 posted on 03/31/2016 7:20:42 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Brilliant

As unlikable Trump is (personality wise), Hillary is unlikable in whole other level. And she is a complete liar and totally untrustworthy. A Republican that would vote for her should turn in their card. Any argument you can make against Trump goes double for Hillary.


27 posted on 03/31/2016 7:30:38 AM PDT by outpostinmass2
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To: IrishBrigade

Quinnipiac: Clinton, Sanders Crush Trump in New York
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/quinnipiac-trump-clinton-dominate/2016/03/31/id/721591/


28 posted on 03/31/2016 7:30:42 AM PDT by GailA (any politician that won't keep his word to Veterans/Military won't keep them to You!)
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To: Brilliant
Most of these "worst case" maps that I've seen...

Still show a better outcome than McCain in 08.

Also, many are no worse that Romney four years ago.

29 posted on 03/31/2016 7:34:21 AM PDT by TontoKowalski (")
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To: Brilliant

Same in Tennessee. In closed primary’s Cruz leads, in open primaries it’s Trump. Tennessee was an exception as we are closed Primary’s. Cruz dropped the ball here by not showing up in the western end, he stayed mostly in the Red end of the state not the Bible Belt part. But we had a TON of DEM re-registering as Republicans in record numbers. Who will re-register as Dems before Nov. Memphis and Nashville always go DEM. Demographics. The counties can’t out vote these 2 cities. Population is not equal. Which is why Shelby CO is mostly Dem controlled at the city and county levels.

Even the “tiny Towns” which have their own government are GOP except for a few.

It took us since Reconstruction to turn the legislature Blue. Governors have come and gone both ways. This is one of the few times 2 branches are Blue, judicial is red left over from past administrations. And it is a Retain or Not retain vote and they show up on both dem and gop ballots and you have no idea what party they are. They do not campaign. I just vote NO RETAIN on all of them since I don’t know party.


30 posted on 03/31/2016 7:41:18 AM PDT by GailA (any politician that won't keep his word to Veterans/Military won't keep them to You!)
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To: GailA

Yep. The only way the GOP wins NY (no matter who the GOP candidate is) is if the Dem is Hillary and she gets indicted before the election. And even that is not certain.


31 posted on 03/31/2016 8:23:42 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: TontoKowalski
"Most of these "worst case" maps that I've seen... Still show a better outcome than McCain in 08. Also, many are no worse that Romney four years ago."

Both results of course being Democrat victories. Demographics is destiny, and the nation has not shifted to the right.

32 posted on 03/31/2016 8:47:50 AM PDT by buckalfa (I am feeling much better now.)
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To: Brilliant
Some Obama voters are Racists and Hillary voters could be Sexists?
33 posted on 03/31/2016 9:08:21 AM PDT by keving (We get the government we vote forever)
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To: outpostinmass2

“What are some of Hillary’s positive qualities?”

Keeps up the flow of cheap labor and wastes heroic young lives in foreign wars.

If you’re a Republican, what’s not to like?


34 posted on 03/31/2016 9:19:28 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown, are by desperate appliance relieved, or not at all)
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To: Brilliant

Sanatorium just shows Trump v Clinton because this is the key week for Stop Trump. The numbers will come out once Trump can’t win showing Cruz would do even worse. Of course, then the polls will show Kasich or Jeb or Romney beating Hillary this we have to put one of them in as the nominee!


35 posted on 03/31/2016 3:03:52 PM PDT by georgiarat (Obama, providing incompetence since Day One!)
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To: comebacknewt
We had two strong candidates who were not beholden to the GOPe that we have managed to completely destroy through character assassination. They are now both total non-factors in the general election.

Nice work, conservative movement.

Exactly right. We will regret this election cycle for years. And we lose the Court for longer.

Trump and Cruz needed to come together but neither showed the leadership to make it happen. Sad.

The only upside is the GOPe and the base are getting a divorce.

36 posted on 03/31/2016 3:17:53 PM PDT by plymaniac
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To: Stentor
Cruz would do far worse in EC votes
Does he even win Texas?

Maybe he could emulate Rick Perry and start wearing glasses so people don't recognize him. Hey, it worked for Superman....

37 posted on 04/01/2016 7:19:23 AM PDT by Cyberman
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To: Brilliant
If Hillary gets indicted before the convention, then she won’t be the nominee. If she gets indicted after the convention, then the Dems will elevate their VP choice to the top of the ticket.

Got any predictions for what happens if Hillary gets abducted by space aliens or sucked into a black hole? Because those scenarios are about as likely as an indictment from the Obama Justice Department....

38 posted on 04/01/2016 7:21:22 AM PDT by Cyberman
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To: Brilliant
I think Cruz will do well with Evangelicals in Florida.

It didn't happen in the primary (at least not sufficiently to beat Trump), so why would it happen in the general election (sufficiently to beat Hillary)?

39 posted on 04/01/2016 7:23:10 AM PDT by Cyberman
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To: Cyberman

I don’t think that evangelicals are as big a political force in Florida as some think. Cruz would do as well as Trump with evangelicals in Florida. Perhaps better. But you’re not going to win Florida with evangelicals. I was just responding to the comment about Trump being better with evangelicals. Not suggesting that either would win based on that.


40 posted on 04/01/2016 8:21:27 AM PDT by Brilliant
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