Posted on 03/31/2016 5:42:07 AM PDT by Brilliant
The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.
Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!...
Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans).
Over the years we’ve put much emphasis on the seven super-swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. While some will fall to the Democrats less readily than others, it is difficult to see any that Trump is likely to grab. In fact, four normally Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) would be somewhat less secure for the GOP than usual. North Carolina, which normally leans slightly to the GOP, would also be well within Clinton’s grasp in this election after being Mitt Romney’s closest win in 2012...
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
Too early to get a meaningful analysis.
Yeah, thank goodness we have all those Republican voters fired up and ready to vote for Hillary, and stop the evil-Donald.
So, just for the heck of it....can anyone introduce me to a Republican who would vote for Hillary? Just one? Even if he’s a doper or alcoholic?
Well seeing as trump won two of the 3 swing state thus far and cruz never won a single county in VA, FL who lost miserably and seeing as he came third in all swing states then it appears if you go by this B/S that we might as well give it to Clinton now.
Now I am in FL and trust me there is no way other than Trump who would win this state against Clinton. There are now people here saying they will not vote unless it is Trump and certainly not for cruz as they have seen the lies about Trump and their establishment attacks
Hillary beats Trump 347-191. Apparently, Trump is not likely to win any of the swing states.
Not likely...I see Trump winning FL and keeping NC, maybe taking CO...more like Hilary 318-220, not that it means anything at all...
Your comment would have seemed like common sense until a month or two ago, with this whole #notrump movement.
I really think some of these Republicans would vote for Hillary over Trump. It sure looks like a bunch of Republican power brokers would do so too.
I think Sabato is wrong on FL and OH but Cruz may have succeeded in finally taking Trump out of the win column.
Cruz would do far worse in EC votes
Does he even win Texas?
IIRC, Sabato was one of those who were proclaiming Romney president in 2012.
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His projections 6 months in advance are suspect.
Why will carpetbagger Hillary take most of the NE states, rather than Trump?
I am in Florida as well. I don’t agree with you. Remember that Obama won Florida twice, and it’s a whole lot more Blue today than it was when Romney lost Florida in 2012. The reality is that whoever wins Florida wins the election. The fact that Trump won the Florida primary doesn’t mean he could win Florida in the general election. He wasn’t running against Hillary in the primary, and the Democrats were not voting in the GOP primary.
The better point (which you don’t discuss) is that Cruz may or may not be able to beat Hillary in Florida for the same reasons. Sabato’s analysis only looks at Trump. I would like to see how Cruz would do.
Ok, so, where are these Republicans-for-Hillary individuals? I don’t know of any. Does anyone else know of such people? I’m not even trying to insult or challenge anyone...I’m just suggesting that there might only be 500 such individuals across the US who can claim some status as a Republican and find some element of wisdom within themselves to vote for Hillary.
Yep, it’s far too early.
What happens when Hillary gets indicted?
Sabato openly admits that this is a wildly early predict uin, and that things can change a lot. But here's one thing from his aeticel that's important to know:
The problem is, there is little evidence that the non-college voters supporting Trump in the primaries are defectors from the Democrats; most have been backing GOP candidates fairly consistently, so the net addition for Trump could be small.
Republicans have been winning white, blue collar males by large margins for a long time. It was our strongest demographic (62%) in 2012, so this isn't some new phenomenon. There may be somewhat higher turnout, but otherwise, it is par for the course.
Heck Republicans have been winning white college educated males for a long time as well. Obama only won 39% of the white vote in 2012, and still won by 4%.
My guess for Hillary's VP is Corey Booker, which will lock up the black vote once again and ensure high participation/enthusiastic. among black voters.
So if we can't peal away a significant percentage of minority voters, we will have to get a higher percentage of whites. That means doing better among white women and the young, because older white men are already the base of the GOP.
I don't think it is realistic to assume that either Cruz or Trump, on their own, will improve GOP performance among women or the Obama generation. So if one of those guys is the nominee, they better pick the right VP.
Personally, I would not vote for Hillary. I am not sure at this point that I would vote for Trump. Certainly, if it were not close, so that my vote did not matter anyway, I would vote for a write in.
I can tell you though that I know a lot of other Republicans. My brother and his wife, for example, are lifelong Republicans, and they both tell me they would vote for Hillary. My wife is also a lifelong Republican, and I think she would be sitting on the fence. I would say she is more likely to vote for Hillary than me.
None of the Republicans I associate with feel that Trump is really a Republican. They think he’s an invader from the Democratic Party, so they view it as a choice between one Democrat and another Democrat.
“I personally know a lot of anti-Trump Republicans, but nine who say they will vote for Hillary. Most plan on just not voting for President at all.”
Ditto. And it makes me sick.
Oldplayer
If Hillary gets indicted before the convention, then she won’t be the nominee. If she gets indicted after the convention, then the Dems will elevate their VP choice to the top of the ticket. Probably won’t work though.
I think it’s unlikely she will be indicted though. My suspicion is that the FBI is going to slow walk it until after the election. If she wins, then you’d need to impeach her before you could indict her, and that isn’t going to happen.
I’m sure he will win TX but forget CO, IA, WI, VA, and maybe AZ
where are you , because here there is no one for cruz at all. As I druive around the state I find most are for Trump
Cruz never even won a single county and lets look at the figures.
.FLorida......Trump. 1,079,741 -cruz 404,804 ... 45.72% - 17.14% ..... +647,937 Trump
He did not even get a county, nor even half a million. cruz would never win this state.
Not winning FL is a loss and a win to Clinton.
I am in Orlando. But it’s irrelevant what happened in the primary. The general election won’t be a race between Trump and Cruz. It will be either a race between Trump and Hillary or Cruz and Hillary. Either one of the GOP candidates is going to have a tough time in Florida. I don’t think it’s clear though that Trump would do better than Cruz. I think Cruz would do better with Hispanics than Trump, most of whom are not Republicans and weren’t voting in the primary, but will vote in the general election. I suspect Cruz would do better with women since Trump’s negatives with women are 73%. And I suspect that Cruz will be able to marshal the rank and file GOP vote as well as Trump. The question is whether these “new” voters Trump is supposed to command would off-set all that. I suspect not.
Life long Republicans voting for Hillary? Interesting. What are some of Hillary’s positive qualities?
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