Posted on 04/15/2016 7:07:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Marco Rubio won Minnesota decisively on March 1, but the 17 delegates he was awarded are now up for grabs, free to vote for any candidate they like on a first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
In a hotly contested Republican primary that looks increasingly likely to culminate in a contested convention this summer, those delegates will be critical. The battle for them is essentially throwing states such as Minnesota, which have already held their nominating contests, back into play as they elect delegates at state conventions. And Ted Cruz’s campaign, which has run circles around Donald Trump’s in the behind-the-scenes battle to elect friendly delegates from states that aren’t holding primaries or caucuses, is also a step ahead in the fight for the Rubio delegates who will be free to give him an extra boost on a first ballot at the convention.
Minnesota hasn’t elected its delegates yet, but the state’s Republican-party chairman, Keith Downey, is already steeling himself for blowback from Trump supporters if and when Cruz emerges from his state with the lion’s share of the delegates.
“If somebody didn’t educate themselves on that process, or they weren’t very good at working through that process, so be it,” he says. “That’s life, and that’s politics.”
Of the 171 delegates Rubio won before dropping out of the race, the 17 he took home in Minnesota, the twelve in Oklahoma, and the two he picked up in New Hampshire are now free agents. In Minnesota and Oklahoma, Rubio’s delegates are obligated only to cast a ballot for him if he is formally nominated, while in New Hampshire they’re entirely unbound.
“Our state rules say if someone is not on the ballot, they are free to vote for whomever they choose,” Oklahoma GOP chairwoman Pam Pollard told NBC News. Cruz won Oklahoma handily on March 1, but Rubio also received twelve delegates for his third-place showing. A Cruz campaign aide says the team has mounted a “very aggressive effort” to win over delegates in every state, including Minnesota and Oklahoma. A spokesman for the Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment about its efforts on the ground in the two states.
Since both Minnesota and Oklahoma have yet to choose their delegates, they offer the campaigns fertile ground to rack up new supporters. Cruz is taking advantage of the opportunity. Jeff Johnson, who served as Rubio’s campaign manager in Minnesota but has since endorsed Cruz, says that much of Rubio’s organization in the state has mobilized behind Cruz, helping his campaign as it works to woo delegate candidates. “That organization is still in place, we’re just kind of adding to it,” he says of Rubio’s infrastructure in the state. “We’re joining.”
In both states, delegates will be chosen through a series of congressional-district conventions held over the next month and a half before a final convention in May. The elaborate process will benefit campaigns that have extensive, well-established statewide organizations — organizations that several state Republican officials say only the Cruz campaign possesses.
Minnesota GOP officials say the Cruz campaign is working to win over delegates, with a particular focus on those who are unbound. “There have been a number of people, either via e-mail or at [local] conventions, campaigning specifically to be a national Cruz delegate,” says Chris Tiedeman, the state’s Republican national committeeman. “And there have been a number of them going to other conventions, other than their own local convention, to start campaigning for those spots now.”
As it was in Colorado and North Dakota, which both elected unbound slates of delegates favorable to Cruz after forgoing primaries and caucuses entirely, it appears that the Trump campaign is being outmaneuvered on the ground in Oklahoma and Minnesota. Several Minnesota GOP officials say they don’t know who is leading the pro-Trump effort in their state, and Tiedeman says there’s little to suggest the real-estate mogul is doing anything to secure unbound delegates there. “That doesn’t mean it’s not happening, but I haven’t seen it anywhere I’ve been,” he says. “And I’ve been out and about quite a bit.”
There’s a small chance Rubio could bind Minnesota and Oklahoma delegates to him on a first ballot — that is, in the unlikely event his name appears on the ballot. But even if one assumes that the RNC’s Rule 40(b) is amended to place Rubio in contention, Rubio supporters say it’s still unlikely he will appear on the ballot. (The rules currently require a candidate to secure a petition featuring the signature of a majority of the delegates from eight states in order to be nominated, and Rubio won only four states and territories.) That’s because collecting the signatures of a majority of the delegates in the required number of states would take a strong, organized effort on the ground in Cleveland, and Rubio is unlikely to pull it off.
According to one longtime RNC member, “Just because you won a state doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to have enough people in that delegate slate signing your petition. It’s a matter of high panic even when you’re Mitt Romney or George W. Bush.” It’s simply not something a non-candidate such as Rubio will do, he says, because, “Getting the petitions is still a pain in the ass and an uncertain prospect.”
“It’s not going to happen,” says Johnson, Rubio’s Minnesota campaign chairman.
Rubio himself tipped his hand for the first time this week about which candidate he’d like to see win the nomination. Though he stopped short of an official endorsement, he told radio talk-show host Mark Levin Tuesday that he wants a conservative nominee and that Cruz is the only candidate left who “fits the criteria.”
In a nail-biter, his delegates may help deliver Cruz the prize.
— Brendan Bordelon is a political reporter for National Review. Eliana Johnson is the Washington editor of National Review.
Right. It’s the only decent thing to do.
Except ... right now Cruz has a clearer path to the nomination than Trump.
Trump wouldn’t even be in this if not for the early primaries where he won votes with 35% or so of the delegates.
How come trumpers never mention that when they are whining about Colorado. It was ‘not trump’ (everybody else) 60+ percent, trump 30% or a little more.
When the system works for you, it’s all good.
And so, I’m really sorry for you but Cruz is not done and he’s not leaving.
Trump needs to get to work.
His staff is in shambles with chaotic infighting and nobody watching the store.
What about Trump scooping up all those early delegates by gaming the system?
By the way, your list is stupid.
All the polls show Trump losing badly to Hillary and Cruz tied or winning.
So is there something we don’t know that you base this prediction on?
I know... it is so mean that Cruz went to Colorado and got all the votes while Trump was in bed in New York tweeting.
Oh crap! I took your comment as sarcasm at first. Then thought, well you never know. So I looked at your tagline and saw Trump2016 and stopped there! (What - you always read to the end of all articles and threads before you comment on them?)
Sorry about that. Although perhaps others may find my post educational.
With obama it became REALLY hard to determine which articles and comments were satire or sarcasm. This primary doesn’t make it any easier!
Where do you find these polls that you cite?
Must be in trumpville ... because the polls I see show an extremely rocky road for Trump to the nomination.
No one but the most delusional trumper could believe that he will get the votes he needs to avoid a contested convention.
And Cruz’s team is working hard to pick up the uncommitted delegates from other candidates.
There is no law that says Trump couldn’t do the same thing but he’s too lazy and uncoordinated and he never hires people smarter than himself, which leaves him with dumb people on his staff.
It use to be that candidates were chosen in state conventions. Now savvy voters dont want party bosses choosing their candidates especially when they go out and vote in a primary and find out it was all a sham. You have a losing argument and your candidates poll numbers reflect that. Keep arguing anyway but you wont get your candidate the presidency by saying stealing delegates is okay.
You’re dreaming.
==
Winners win, losers side with Ted, you’ll see.
Trump had it ... mostly by benefiting from an overcrowded field ... but he had it.
And he lost it. He lost it by throwing hissy fits that turned voters off; by childish taunting of having a prettier wife; by making huge policy blunders and then walking them back.
If the primary season started today, Trump would not even be in the field.
Cleveland will not be a 3-ring circus. It will follow rules about a contested convention.
Many of the previous candidates who have dropped out have uncommitted delegates. Very few delegates are committed after the first round.
Maybe Trump will win in the second round. Probably not.
Cruz cannot win. Period.
“Outmaneuvering” ? Is this how you think the Republican base sees this?
They see this as total bull **** and Party Syndicalism.
No wonder Cruz is Cratering. Vote by vote. If the vote is not respected, you haven’t seen anything as to what is coming for the GOPe and Cruz will be held accountable for trying to hardwire this abomination and enabling the GOPe. You watch.
I did NOT include 1) any Colorado delegates, 2) Wyoming delegates and 3) Rubio delegates and Trump still gets to 1,237.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3418545/posts?page=35#35
GOPe Maneuvering
Cruz Maneuvering.
Trump winning votes.
Only if Trump gets 1237 delegates. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.
That's where you're dead wrong.
Ted Cruz is done, period. End of sentence.
There's no "only if" scenario where Ted Cruz gets the nomination, not even at a contested convention.
How naive Cruzbots are showing themselves to be! I guess when reality isn't palatable, whimsical fantasy is all that remains. How quaint.
Aside from being mathematically eliminated Tuesday night from any chance of a delegate majority, Ted Cruz has absolutely no chance of getting the GOP nomination without totally splintering the party and destroying voter enthusiasm. It's just not going to happen.
Even the GOPe isn't stupid enough to do that.
Once Ted Cruz is mathematically eliminated on Tuesday 4/19, the dynamic of the GOP race will turn against him even more strongly.
Although consistently annoying due to its irrationality, vehemence, and GOPe ass-kissing, the desperation of the Cruz campaign and Cruzbots is becoming more and more a source of amusement, as opposed to serious debate.
I think I'll be eating lots of popcorn over the next several days, especially on Tuesday night.
The Cruzbot flailing, wailing, and gnashing of teeth should be quite intense by that time.
2DV, other Cruz bundlers and their ilk can continue with their tireless, impotent spamming of FR, but it will not help their candidate win the GOP nomination. Eventually, their knee-jerk hatred will subside, and those who are serious about making America great again will support the GOP nominee, Donald Trump, against Hillary in November...
If you think conservative Republicans will be enthusiastic about Trump, you're living in a dream world. You would see volunteering for his campaign at record lows for a Republican candidate. The party as a whole will cheer wildly if Trump is defeated at the convention. Most of Trump's supporters are crossover Democrats who we don't want in our party anyway. They will only water down the platform into an anti-Christian, anti-freedom, pro-socialism message.
Cruz cannot be mathematically eliminated until June 7th. All of the unbound and Rubio/Kasich delegates are up for grabs on the first ballot. If they all go to Cruz, we will not know until June 7th if that is enough to put Cruz over 1237.
Florida, my home state, had a closed primary.
Donald Trump crushed both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in that primary.
The same has been true for several other closed primary states.
Thus, your assertion is fallacious, ludicrous on its face, and amounts to aught but feeble propaganda.
There is no “stealing” taking place. The presidential preference vote means nothing after states become unbound on subsequent ballots. The votes for the delegates is what counts. Cruz is competing to get his delegates voted in and to persuade the delegates to support him once they are unbound. There is no other way to play the game. Those are the rules. I can guarantee you Trump will be trying to persuade the delegates eventually, but his mistake is he’s been lazy, cheap and inattentive and let Cruz start a lot earlier.
We can argue till kingdom come today on whether or not I am wrong or you are wrong and nothing will be resolved until the time comes.
You did say that Ted Cruz is mathematically eliminated on Tuesday 4/19, we shall see...
Let’s come back to this thread on April 20 and revisit your prediction.
RE: Not sure what you mean by the vote not being respected. Thus far, Trump has won 37% of the votes overall and he’s getting about 45% of the delegates. How is that not respecting the vote?
Trump got less than 50% of the votes in Florida but got 100% of the delegates ( it’s a winner take all state ).
In fact, the system is HELPING Trump.
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