Posted on 10/12/2018 9:41:51 AM PDT by SMGFan
Senate results in midterms crucial for GOP and Democratic prospects in 2020
ANALYSIS | The Democrats’ chances of netting at least two Senate seats always seemed like a long shot. But a month ago, the stars looked to be aligning for Democrats. Today, those stars tell a different story.
With Republican challenger Kevin Cramer opening up a clear margin over incumbent Heidi Heitkamp, the North Dakota Senate race looks all but over now, according to multiple insiders. That means Democrats will need to swipe at least three GOP seats to take back the Senate — an outcome that currently appears somewhere between unlikely and impossible.
Democratic prospects have also faded over the past couple of weeks in two important states, Tennessee and Arizona. And in Nevada, a state that went for Hillary Clinton two years ago, Republican incumbent Dean Heller is running even or slightly ahead of Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. In Texas, where Democratic enthusiasm for Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is off the charts, incumbent Ted Cruz continues to hold a clear and consistent advantage, with no sign that Lone Star state voters are going to fire him.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
“Mariner is very emotional”
Would you please tell all my ex wives that I am not a cold, automaton, devoid of emotion and passion?
LOL
Let me explain this politics 101, yet again, to the habitual whiners in “Conservative Inc” who spend all their time shooting their political allies in the back because they are entirely too gutless to ever get off their asses and into the political fight .
R control means Trumps agenda moves forward. Might not always pass but it will get enacted into legislation and moved forward.
D control means NOTHING Trump wants gets even voted on AND Ds do everything they can to destroy Trump politically.
So quite with the habitual ignorant whining because the GOP instead flawless or simply get out of poltical completely because you are far too stupid to be voting.
I’ve been following Election Betting Odds and the Senate hasn’t been in contention for months now.
It was one of the votes I am most proud and happy of making.
Mike Coffman is an incumbent R in a swing district the Dems gerrymandered after the last census. A big R group pulled their money out a few days ago. They may finally get him this time.
.
You show lots of emotion here anyway.
Hmmm.... You’re right...
House races are trending more Republican. I think the Dems will pick up some suburban seats this election, but I think it will not be enough to gain a majority.
GOP Senate was never in danger. This is gaslighting nonsense given that.
Unless you been living under a rock for the last 2 years any GOP Speaker of the House is absolutely better then any Democrat Speaker of the House.
We have a Speaker of the House now? Who is it?
House races are trending more Republican. I think the Dems will pick up some suburban seats this election, but I think it will not be enough to gain a majority.
I agree. The most likely outcome here. The GOP was never in danger of losing the Senate given the map this year.
“Let me get this straight. Currently, in the HOUSE, the GOP has 238 and the Dimms have 197. This Dude is predicting that the Dimms are going to win 42 seats?”
I think the opposition party picks up an average of 37 some odd seats in midterm elections.
But politics since 2016 has been crazy. I have no idea whether that number has any meaning today.
Senate has never been in play for the Dems given the map. That has been an absolute pipe dream. It isn’t happening.
I’m inclined to agree. Those blue state voters that flipped to vote for Trump are still pretty happy with him, and now they are outraged over the Kavanaugh fiasco, so they are more likely to be enthused to get out and vote in the mid-terms.
Dems are just hoping the same old tired coalition that couldn’t push Hillary’s comatose body across the finish line will somehow magically be able to win now. How, nobody is exactly sure.
I wish the confirmation outrage was closer, 4+ weeks out is a long time for the political memory of people that might only normally vote in presidential elections. Midterm elections average around 40% eligible voter turnout, the number of people that don’t deign to vote dwarfs the turnout of both politic parties. I wonder what the turnout will be for this one.
Freegards
If you start with Nixon, the average loss for a Republican incumbent is 17 seats.
Throw out the 1974 post-Watergate Ford debacle and the average goes down to 12.
House Sen
1962 John F. Kennedy D -4 +3
1970 Richard Nixon R -12 +2
1978 Jimmy Carter D -15 -3
1982 Ronald Reagan R -26 +1
1990 George Bush R -8 -1
1994 Bill J. Clinton D -52 -8
2002 George W. Bush R +8 +2
2010 Barack Obama D -63 -6
They’d need only 21 to get control.
Ok, ok...ok... I’m a dumb@ss. I goofed. I get it. We can lose 20 seats and still retain the House. Won’t be easy, but I think we can keep at least that many.
If you take RCP polls at their face value, GOP currently leads 218-217.
Keep in mind I DON’T take RCP polls at their face value. Many are either phony rat polls or just plain stale.
Amazing how Roll Call can be so confident in a rat takeover.
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