Posted on 10/12/2018 9:41:51 AM PDT by SMGFan
We will hold the house!
Senate is not even a discussion
My 3 cents
I hold this belief due to history first, then personal observation of multiple polls. Some media polls, and some independent polls.
So there is at least one basis besides media polling/reporting.
What is the basis of your belief?
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Fake News!
GOP will gain substantially in the house.
Leftie loon states are swinging measurably.
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GOP will gain in the House.
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You are such a defeatist!
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Mariner is very emotional, and he will have to chill until after the election to calm down.
The GOP breeze is becomming a gale, even in leftie loon states.
It's actually 21 seats they would need to win as that would give them 218 and the Republicans 217.
But relax, it's not going to happen. The Dems would need to essentially "run the table" on the contested seats in order for that to happen. I suggest you read posts by "LS" who is probably the best analyst on FR. The Dems are rapidly running out of runway as seat after seat is starting to turn the GOP's way.
LS was dead on accurate during the 2016 election and has an excellent track record in the special elections since then. He knows his stuff and backs it up with real data.
Senate was NEVER in play.... And any chance of the house flipping DIED with the Kavanaugh fiasco... rollcall is at least 2-3 weeks behind the reality on the ground.
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Whatever you’re smoking, stop!
We will gain substantially in the house. Those gains will be in leftie loon states.
Agreed, I don’t think the House will flip, momentum is on our side! And they may even lose a seat in of all places Miami!
No, we may lose some seats, but we will keep the majority.
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Scottie is too cautious.
He knows that the GOP is ascending as the dems are descending, everywhere.
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Not in the election it won’t be, Trump has nationalized it.
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Right on!
2018 will be a big walkaway year just like ‘94 was.
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Here in CA, there is a major uprising against using the ‘roads’ as an issue.
We will be rolling back a gas tax increase (prop 6) and it will affect some house races.
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Reality check:
Democrats now have ZERO chance of taking the Senate.
Democrats are now the UNDERDOG to take the House.
Possibilities that have opened up since the Kavanaugh affair include a GOP 60 seat supermajority in the Senate - long odds, still, but infinitely greater than the zero odds the Dems have of getting a Senate majority.
Looking at Real Clear Politics, they have D 204, T 32, and R 199, with R trending up and D down. When I look at the 32 toss-ups, polls or other factors indicate that the R number should be 222 +- 10. There are some I saw in the Leans Dim column that should be toss-ups or better as well. If the election were today, I believe the GOP keeps the House in spite of themselves. This is with losing two seats in Kansas.
OMG!! Dusty Rhodes was there when I left in 1980!!! And BEFORE that!! Is Cammy Dirksing still on 12?
Historically you don’t lose big in the House and win Big in the Senate. They trend together based on the political winds at the time. If Republicans gain 4,5,6,7,8 Senate seats there is just no way the winds will blow back against the house and lose 21 seats.
Republican HISTORY since 2000:
_____gain/loss___gain/loss
Year_Senate______House
2000__-5___________-2
2002__+1___________+8
2004__+4___________+2
2006__-6___________-32
2008__-9___________-21
2010__+5___________+64
2012__-2___________-8
2014__+9__________+13
2016__-2___________-6
2018_???___________???
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