Posted on 10/12/2018 9:41:51 AM PDT by SMGFan
They only need to flip 21 seats. Every seat a Dem wins, the difference goes down by two.
Of those 32 tossups, 30 are currently Republican-held, and only two are currently DemocRATic-held.
One of the Republican tossups I am familiar with, as it is my district of MI-8. Mike Bishop is supposedly in a tossup race with Elissa Slotkin based on two polls, one in April where Bishop led by 6, and a NYT poll in late September where Bishop led by 3.
If the rest of the 30 tossups are based on such narrow polling, I'd say we have a good chance of holding the house.
About 50% of the population would love to see Pelosi as Speaker of the the House. But, not all of them will vote. That is the key question and the real fight. Republicans need to have a bigger turnout than the Dems. In most midterm elections, that is what happens. We need to make sure that it happens again this year.
I dunno about this. 12 House seats listed among those up for grabs in Ohio and Florida show the Republican leading in all 12. I imagine it’s a similar story in other red leaning states.
‘There is no way that the Democrats can win the House.’
do tell...
We conservatives still need to get out and vote regardless of what polls say! We also need to encourage others who aren’t buying the MSM propaganda about a Blue Wave. A lot is at stake here. No one with half a brain wants mob rule by extreme leftists willing to turn our country into the next Venezuela.
Thank the Lord my neighbor who is a Democrat will at the very least be voting for the Republican Gubernatorial candidate here in CA. She doesn’t like Gavin Newsom’s pledge to give health care to illegal immigrants. She’s half Hispanic -her grandfather came to the US legally - and is a nurse to boot! She knows that sort of political promise is trouble. Same goes for non-citizen voters.
Vote! Yeah, I know it’s Democrat-controlled CA. Still, we’ve elected Republican governors in the past.
‘The Democrats would need to win every tossup race to flip the house’
that’s simply untrue...
History is on our side.
Almost every election cycle that I can remember Republicans have either lost seats in both Senate and House or gained seats in Senate and House. The few elections that the Republicans lost House seats and gained Senate seats the House losses were less then 20 seats each time, usually much less then 20. House and Senate typically slide together up and down and when they differ its not a big direction either way.
If we gain 5-6 Senate seats then I believe it unlikely we would lose very many house seats, certainly not more then 20.
Stu has become One Of Them. I knew him in another lifetime, back when he had a TV show on the old satellite National Empowerment Television network created by Paul Weyrich.
He was a conservative then, and a friend. I even visited DC and went to his home and shared Mogen David with him.
However, the DC Swamp subsumes everyone, or it kills them if they don’t adapt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Empowerment_Television
If Rs lose one, Ds gain it.
So if it’s currently 238-197, the Rs can lose 20 seats [meaning the Ds gain those 20] and _still_ hold a 218-217 majority.
Ds have to “flip” 21 seats to gain the house majority.
I don’t think they will. I think Rs hold it.
No one but the Dems want the current Speaker, Paul Ryan.
One of the Nates ( Cohen or Silver) tweeted that people still make 2016 mistake.
70 - 80% chance of winning a seat should not be seen as 100%.
There is still margin of error and confidence
I did take some statistics 25 years ago.
agree...get on his ping or mailing list...
s/ No one should stay home based on polls , but it seems to work 20% of the time with 10% margin of error with a 90% confidence /s
Definitely.. They are so indoctrinated and brainwashed they can’t see the TRUTH.. President Trump is Making America More Amazing Than Ever! It’s a pity the Left can only see their Pathetic and False “Truth”.
Reading through that article is stunning. I ignored all mainstream media for the last month or so of the campaign, I just didn’t want to hear it.
The ONLY possible basis for this belief has to be media polling/reporting.
I can't imagine making that kind of statement based on "input" from the MSM.
We have a good, decent man as Hamilton County Auditorin Dusty Rhodes. He is an old school Dem, follower of JFK who would be persona non grata in today’s Demoshit Party. He is a budget hawk, believes in low taxes and personal responsibility. He is a local legend having been one of a few men who teamed up to bring The Beatles to Cincinnati. He is a good guy and the only Dem I have or ever will vote for.
Why not state your take on the House then, newbie?
Happy two and a half weeks on FR.
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