Posted on 10/15/2018 4:37:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA
The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News’ Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats — and that the battleground looks different:
If this was a national referendum on President Donald Trump, he’d be set for a thumping, or a shellacking, or whatever word a president not named Trump might select in conceding defeat.
Nationwide - Trump - Percent - Approval - Rating
Nationwide, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating, and Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.
It’s a similar dynamic — driven by Democratic strength in cities, and weaknesses in rural areas — that is driving House and Senate forecasts in opposite directions, amid a campaign close set to be dominated by the president.
Perspective - WaPo/ABC - Ballot - Result - Outer
It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.
I know that local politics IS USUALLY local, HOWEVER I am not giving up on the POWER of Trump, this man IS AMAZING, he is everywhere telling people to vote Republican NEVER underestimate the POWER of Trump!!!! This man has the hand of God on him and I totally expect a divine intervention just like 2016!!!
Ohio showed Trump winning by a few points and he won by 9 or 10. Then there is MI, PA and WI...those were pivotal, of course, but Trump won all those states by a combined 77,000 votes and the polls were close.
The generic House poll is almost always off by 4 or 5 points - always - even the media reports it that way.
Yes, Lambchop will win, but I must have read 100s of times that there are three districts in PA that will flip to the dems due to the redistricting. Everyone is certain of that and their reasoning seems solid. What are your thoughts?
Two seats in PA are CERTAIN GOP losses, with the horrifically unnecessary RENUMBERING this can get confusing,
They are PA-5 (old number PA-7) open seat of Republican Marty Meehan (who resigned when it came out he used taxpayer funds to settle a harassment lawsuit). Under the new lines it barely gave Trump a third of the vote, safe democrat.
The other is PA-6 (kept same number), the open seat of Republican Ryan Costello. It went for Obama in 2012 by just 3 points but swung to Hillary, she won it by over 9. It is NOT unwinnable for Republicans, however Costello dropped out after it was too late for new candidates to get in so the GOP nomination automatically went to the only other guy running, a nobody with no chance against a zillionaire democrat. Costello should be punched in his empty ballsack for leaving us in this position, but we’d probably have lost the seat anyway, I doubt Costello would have won since he’s a Trump-hater with no fire in the belly, but there are candidates who would have run who might have had a shot if he hadn’t exited the race in such an untimely fashion.
The Rothfus/Lambchop seat is PA 17 (Old number 12), it went Trump by about 2.5 points, a decline from the 4.5 points Romney won by (close in Pittsburgh suburbs swung D). Trump just endorsed Rothfus but all indications are that Lambchop will win (and if he had lost the special election in old PA-18 his position would hardly be any different so that was ultimately irrelevant) and many Republicans are writing it off. Rothfus beat a rat incumbent back in 2012, he’s no punk who’s never been in race before, but the slick liar Lambchop seems to be cleaning his clock on the campaign trail. I see it as D win but have not abandoned all hope.
Two other seats are in high danger
PA-7 (old number 15) the open seat of RINO Pig Charlie Dent, an Obama district that swung to Trump but still went Shillery by 1 point under the new lines. The rat seems to have the edge but it should be close.
PA-1 (old number 8), went from a narrow Trump/Romney seat to narrow SHilley/Obama seat in the new map. A new NY-Times/Siena poll is out showing the rat with a good lead but I’m skeptical and give the edge to our incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick
Rats are also interested in PA-10 belonging to Scott Perry (not Mike Kelly, I get them confused) (Old # 4) a Trump +9 district, the old 4th was +20 Trump. There was a very close poll but I think it’s a dem fantasy.
Meanwhile we gain back PA 14 (old 18 that Lambchop took) as I mentioned, though likely this will be cancelled out by Lambchop winning the other seat.
Our chance at a pickup is PA-8 (old 17th). This one is very interesting. It was an Obama district that swung comfortably to Trump. The court left the partisan balance the same BUT some territory was changed around so rat incumbent Matt Cartwright is not really the incumbent for some voters in the district. Unlike almost every other race for against a rat incumbent we have a well funded challenger here, John Chrin. No polling that I know of has been released but analysts changed their rating to “lean D” (from likely d) back in June. Biggest under the radar race in the country maybe.
So the likelihood is there will be 3 or 4 more rats in the PA delegation then there were in Jan 2017 (before Lambchop), 2 or 3 more than there are now.
This NY slimes breakdown may be of interest to you
Correction, our Congressman in PA-1 is MIKE Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a quarterback.
Link? I looked up @FloridaGuy and saw nothing about polls.
Correction to Impy’s correction:
Mike Fitzpatrick was the former congressman, who retired in 2016. The incumbent is his brother, Brian Fitzpatrick.
“Polls always normalize the closer you get to election day.”
Didn’t happen in 2016.
That is cause Hillarat was running in 2016...Sort of like telling Hitler that we will relieve Stalingrad! Nobody wants to be the first to tell her bad news.
Thanks. I calculated 3 PA losses.
Hannity overuses the word ‘bombshell’. This is a given. It’s annoying. If he just said, “Claire McCaskill was caught lying to get moderate voters,” then the effect would have been the same without the hyperbole.
However, the latest Veritas video on McCaskill should do her in. It is absolutely damning, up to and including the fact that Schumer is funding her campaign, and who knows if its legal. Her own campaign finance chair doesn’t know, and says so on tape.
They catch staffers just openly admitting she has to lie to get elected, and further admits moderates in that state are stupid enough to fall for it. If O’Keefe made that available for campaign ads and ran those until the election raw and unedited, she’d lose huge.
It’s damning stuff, and apparently O’Keefe’s got more. Tennessee and Missouri, but he has even more on Missouri. I can’t imagine its any more damning that what he’s already presented, but you never know.
Yeah that’s the wrong person this is the right Florida Guy
https://twitter.com/floridaguy267
Impy - that was a great brief! I really appreciate you taking your time to explain it all. I will keep my eyes on these races.
Well, Trump actually has a 51% approval rating nationwide (Rassmussen Reports).
That is 10% above what this ABC sh** poll says. Totally confusing. Does that mean the GOP is actually leading in generic Congressional polls across the board?
Nobody knows. Just turn out and VOTE, get your family and friends to turn out and VOTE.
Then let the dust settle ...
Work like we’re two points behind !
Pollsters are deliberately avoiding black male polling. the shift from 90+ democrat to 36+ for trump... is going to capsize their whole operation.
AND they already know it. Watch them self express their outrage as they get ever closer to the “We are foaming at the mouth losers with no political power to anything but get arrested” phase.
keep that in mind and it perfectly demonstrates they KNOW THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE...
expect them to lay their next premise/threat... if we don’t gain power, we will hurt ourselves, others and our own communities... with murder, mayhem, violent assaults, and rape.
IT’s what they do when they don’t get their way. They use their anger as their pretext for murder.
Situational awareness is in order... the rule in fact\ for survival.
Just remember, what the Democrats lack in votes and enthusiasm, they make up for in FRAUD!
VOTE ACCORDINGLY!!
10 so that it’s a blow-out red wave.
Works for me !
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