Posted on 10/28/2018 11:19:16 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
They weren’t amazing numbers for Hillary. We were able to use EV data to predict Trump wins in FL, OH, NC, and IA with early vote data. It isn’t ‘over-analysis’. It is the best indicator available of what the electorate looks like.
And Mr Nate Silver of that highly rated, ABC owned FiveThirtyEight (538) firm just said that polling is more accurate a predictor than early voting. Thus he gives 85% chance for SanFranNan to take the House gavel again.
So what is wrong with this logic? First they was so very accurate about 2016 where, at 10:41AM on Election Day, 8 November, their final prediction was 71% chance for a Hillary Clinton victory. When other pollsters mocked ‘538’ for being the least positive about Hillary’s inevitable victory, that forecast included a point about the unreliability of poll trackers in some cases.
Second, this early vote is unprecedented in the GOP-registered outvoting the Democrats. When something is this significantly skewed, I’d be hedging my bets. So, we will see in 10 days if the pollsters have fixed their 2016 problems or e;se seek to find other excuses.
Publishing these survey results is a very clear dog whistle to Pubbies - “Don’t bother to vote, it’s in the bag.”
I think I know what is going on. It hit me like a bolt, and it all made sense.
I honestly dont want to say, but it will make things very interesting. One scenario I can understand as to why. The other is a doozy.
Surprised they reported it.
The initial numbers out of Washoe County don’t make much sense as this has always been a Heller stronghold. I would not put it past the Harry Reid machine to stuff the early vote with fraudulent SEIU ballots. I can understand Heller trailing a little in Clark County (Vegas) but the republicans hold a slight majority in registered voters in Washoe. Anyone have some updates on Nevada?
Damn! Look at Montana! Even if Heller loses, it looks from those numbers like Tester would lose and cancel it out.
A 19 point lead! Tester is toast. Way to go Montana!
The blue wave is a puddle of urine.
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Lol That’s a great description.
All things considered, the Dems are in bad shape.
Just yesterday a very liberal friend of mine pointed out how Dems will make great gains in the upcoming election. Her source: CNN.
I think I know what is going on. It hit me like a bolt, and it all made sense.
I honestly dont want to say, but it will make things very interesting. One scenario I can understand as to why. The other is a doozy.
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Please say it!
Just yesterday a very liberal friend of mine pointed out how Dems will make great gains in the upcoming election. Her source: CNN.
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You could show her some of those CNN election night 2016, on the verge of suicide, videos.
And many thanks for posting the data...now have a baseline
So expect at least another NBC poll before next Tuesday for comparison
Meanwhile preparing a bowl of Schadenfreude Punch to be followed by a pot of Covfefe.
Lesson learned:
Don’t piss off an entire political party. Worse yet, piss off the independent voters. The worst, anger and embarrass your own political party. Spanking coming.
we’ll expect to hear both scenarios from you as Nov 6th comes - when any threat of your influencing elections by speaking your thoughts is no longer an issue :)
Yeah what’s up with Nevada?
If updating them would help Democrats, they would be updated.
I guess she thought Hillary was going to win as well!
Reno? Organized casino workers?
We can only hope they’ve already shot their wad.
Please feel free to FReep mail me what you think is going on. Thanks.
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