Poll: Gillum leads DeSantis by 6 points in Florida

The (s)Hill ^ | 10/30/18 | Michael Burke

[fireman15]

Desantis wins by 5-7 points

Yes, DeSantis will win... but by the skin of his teeth. Because President Trump is on his way to Florida to drag his butt across the finish line. My relatives in Fort Meyers have got their tickets. The primary reason DeSantis needs help to beat a criminal grifter is that he is a weak and indecisive candidate who often comes across like he is afraid of his own shadow.

[Blue Jays]

"...early polls show..."

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STOP PANICKING! They create these to dissuade people like us from voting. Go vote on Election Day!

[Methos8]

Read the methodology :-)

I did. You care to enlighten us or just going to humor us? R/D/I split of 431/422/194 seems like a pretty reasonable expectation of expected voter turnout. Maybe we beat them on turnout a bit, who knows. Based on his (IMO) ineffective campaign I am not surprised by Scott outpolling DeSantis by two or three percent.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Except that isn’t true. Republicans have increased registration numbers bigly in the last few years in Florida.

[Impy]

I think it will be very close, a sickening loss is possible, I can’t rule it out. But this 80% forecast from that loser silver is BS. He be oversampling rats or something.

[mewzilla]

Did you find the complete methodology or just the party breakdown? I’m talking about following the link to the poll where you can find complete info on the poll’s methodology. After doing that, looks to me like they got what they polled for.

[CaptainK]

Could it possibly be a “Tom Bradley effect” result,

Among Democrats, 87 percent indicate they plan to vote for Gillum, 7 percent for DeSantis and 6 percent don’t know where they’ll cast their vote. Ten percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Gillum while 84 percent indicate they’ll vote for DeSantis; 7 percent don’t know.

[Reily]

He and Morrissey in WV have the same campaign style !

[Red Badger]

It’s BS...........................

[Red Badger]

We won’t.................

[perfect_rovian_storm]

So you think that the Rs who are coming out in larger numbers than when Trump won in 16 are coming out to vote for Gilliam? Does it make more sense to believe that or that the polling, which was flawed in 16 is still flawed?

[ncalburt]

Exactly , The Hill is playing hard core Psych Ops .
Peddling a poll from a unknown commuter college !

The Hill has only published FL polls showing these huge Dem wins .

The Hill ignored the last three FL polls showing Desantis ahead or tied .

The Hill is the enemy media and playing Psych Ops .

Volunteer and dont fall the Left wing Hills game .

[Red Badger]

Gillum hasn’t got a chance..................

[Red Badger]

Nope...ain’t gonna happen...............

[freedom1st]

With Halloween tomorrow, this poll is scary and frightening.

[ExSoldier]

Not buying that the entirety of the state is THAT stupid. Especially north of Palm Beach County. But thank the Lord, we're moving to Tennessee by mid December.

[fireman15]

He and Morrissey in WV have the same campaign style !

Fortunately for the two of them and a bunch of other ungrateful Republicans the left has been willing to make this election into a referendum on President Trump.

[EnquiringMind]

What a bunch of stupid voters. They move to Florida for lower taxes and no state tax, then vote for a socialist to get their taxes (and everyone else’s) back up. Go back home, you liberally-deranged dummies.

[ncalburt]

I saw that ridiculous 10% Gop model voting Gillum .
Thats absurd .
I am calling only reps across the state to vote .
Not a single person has said they are voting Dem .
Not one .

[Methos8]

So you think that the Rs who are coming out in larger numbers than when Trump won in 16 are coming out to vote for Gilliam? Does it make more sense to believe that or that the polling, which was flawed in 16 is still flawed?

Trust me, I have a pretty good handle on the R/D turnout. I have confidence DeSantis will get 90%+ of the vote from registered Republicans (and Gillum will likely as well). The poll is reasonably close enough to that, probably within the margin of error.

What concerns me is the result saying DeSantis is losing independents by 25%. That sample is less than 200 people and not consistent with other polls I have seen, but is still a bit concerning. I think he can still win if he keeps the gap to something around 55/45, but anything worse than that is going to make it really difficult even with a decent Republican turnout.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Scott win by 1-2% and DeSantis lose by about the same amount.