Skip to comments."What If" hypothetical question for those who are familiar with world politics.
Posted on 08/24/2012 2:39:24 PM PDT by America_Right
I have a problem. I started writing a book, and I am getting in over my head, here. I am at a point in the notes for the book where the Middle East is broke because oil is pretty much worthless.
Will the Mid East population roll over Europe? Will they get control of European nukes? Will they immediately use those nukes on Israel and the US? What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?
Believe it or not, this is just the beginning of an epic sci-fi story. Politics is only important in the first part. With this in mind, I suppose I could take the story far enough into the future that current politics may not even be a factor, but it isn't as fun and poignant.
how about muslims vs. christians?
It’s a hypothetical in a book. Choose the path that gives your story the most leeway to expand on your ideas.
Good point. However, I need it to be as realistic as possible. You should see all the research I am doing for the sci part of the sci-fi! I will have a PhD in physics before this is over.
If oil became worthless (hard to imagine), then much (but not all) of the middle east would fall into extreme poverty.
The rich would flee, the poor would starve. Their militaries would crumble from lack of foreign maintenance support (which is all that keeps them together).
The people would turn on each other and it would become one big Somalia.
Turkey or another Islamic power (not dependent on oil) might then step in to reconstruct the Caliphate over a weak and miserable population.
Of course, if the West didn’t close the door, they WOULD flood into Europe, trying to survive. What better target than the European welfare states.?
The political stuff is pretty stale and trashy in comparison.
1. Start with the end in mind and work backwards as you outline. What is the big conclusion you want to have or lesson you want people to learn? How do events take you there?
2. Is there anything in past history that correlates to this? (Siege of Vienna comes to mind) History has a way of repeating itself.
The Jews will determine the future of the Middle East because they may not be many but few of the civilized outnumber the many of the savage in our 21st Century technology world.
And if America can survive the Obama pathogen our world will abide for a little while longer.
Fighting would push the Muslims back across the Medeteranean and all of the way back to Istanbul and beyond.
Istanbul would once again be called "Constantinople and become an international holy city like Jerusalem
Or Muslims vs. Aliens?
“What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?”
The Democrats will immediately surrender and apologize, and the RINOs will send them a strongly worded letter. As for the Ivans and the Chicoms, they are not our friends, and will be glad to help- themselves, to whatever they can get, at our expense and that of others.
Or Muslims vs. Aliens?
Let's play cowboys and muzzies.
If there’s a book in there, it’s about how you get oil to be worthless and what the post-petroleum epoch would look like for us.
Yeah, that’s what’s interesting me here. What technological game changer comes about to do that? If ME oil income plumments, they go back to the stone age and, as stated above, become nothing but a mass of Somalias. I, for one, would laugh long, often and hard.
So are the world’s tanks, planes and warships electric?
If I used what you wrote, I would probably be hearing from Tom Clancy's lawyer. :)
If oil became worthless (hard to imagine)
Not really. However it would never become worth zero, just worth very little compared to today.
Advances and discoveries in natural gas and nuclear would do that very easily. If every country starts fracking for nat gas and starts building thorium reactors, the mid east would go broke very fast.
But over-run europe? no, europe would not allow that. They would over run africa first. Africa has raw materials and slave-like labor and lots of ground for farming. Africa would be the logical path for arab nations to save themselves from starvation. If there is to be a war as a result of the arabs becoming poor and going hungry, it will occur on the african continent.
Yes. And it is feasible, too, believe it or not.
Remember, this is sci-fi.
Wow, I never even thought of that! It is hard to imagine Africa as having enough resources to be worth taking militarily given their lifestyle.
Keep in mind, I was going to have Europe be taken over without a shot being fired. It seems to me that they are welcoming a Muslim takeover via immigration.
At any rate, Africa just made it into the book. I was just going to use Egypt, but that would be a poor use of MY resources.
european colonists didn’t take over africa because it was a waste of time. They colonized africa because there are rich lands there and no one with the organization talent to extract them.
Eurabia will eventually get muzzified, apart from France (I know this is hard to believe); France and Britain have nuclear arsenals they developed and control. I’m not sure any other nation in Europe (apart from the USSR, oops, I mean Russia) have done so. There are US warheads in Europe as part of the NATO defense treaty.
THAT is the whole crux - the keystone, if you will, of the story. Can't spoil that for you. :)
Congratulations on taking the plunge!
One of the great joys of science fiction - as opposed to fantasy - is that it might actually happen...eventually.
As for your particular question, the short answer is “what do you want to happen?” as in “what events would move your plot along towards the climatic conflict and resolution”?
Also for consideration: some new technology that would make oil nearly worthless would (a) not make it completely worthless, as technology adoption is never 100% and (b) may affect certain uses such as fuel more than others such as plastics, and (c) would take a significant time span to alter world economics, with the time required being related to the adoption curve of the new technologies.
Even something as radical as - for example - practical Tesla-style power broadcasting on a global scale - would take time for the information required to use it to propagate across the globe, for vehicles to be adapted, and so on. And of course there’s always an “old guard” that never adapts (Luddites, in the extreme cases, Amish, gasoline-engine fanatics, etc).
So the upset in the middle east - or Texas - would not happen overnight, but would be gradual. Possibly even decades, or more.
The people in charge would most likely see it coming, and vanish/bail/emigrate et al. The huddled masses would most likely remain huddled masses - they simply don’t have the knowledge or resources to migrate elsewhere. Prime fodder for warlords and opportunists, as demonstrated by the current political climate ;)
That being said, I strongly urge you to consider everything suggested in this thread (the thought about Africa is a good one, for example), and then throw it all out and make happen whatever you want to happen.
good luck, and let us know when it’s done!
Interesting, I think you’ll have fun with this project.
Here’s my $.02 for what its worth:
Most of the Middle East will simply die. The incinerated will linger as a dispersing stench; the irradiated will starve. Jerusalem will be ringed with massive Aegis-style systems firing off from time to time as the surviving Jews hunker down against the odd biomissile launched by fading regional mujahid avenging what was left of the Kaaba. Indonesia starves and self-consumes as the rest of the remaining powers isolate Islam, there no longer being any advantage to pandering to the rabidity of the Faith. China continues to pour engineers and infrastructure resources into sub-Saharan Africa, their occasional genocidal mass killings only opposed by impotent proclamations from a terrified Europe and a self-absorbed United States dying under unsustainable entitlements...
Airplanes, ships, trains, and small engines would be hard to operate on anything but petroleum.
I would see oil dropping 50 to 70 percent.
Bah, you guessed it... Ok, at least some people will know what I am talking about. So much for not spoiling the story. I was planning on having a rather sudden "switch" to the Tesla broadcast after a rather lengthy ramp up to the new grid. Remember the switch to digital TV? Like that, only with more far-reaching implications.
I am definitely using the Africa angle. That was brilliant, as have been some of the other posts on this thread.
I really like the idea of a slow emigration of Mid Easterners. It could (will?) solve the problem of getting the Muslim takeover of Europe underway sooner rather than later.
Thanks for the interest! I will put you on my list of people to email the book to when it is done.
Ships already run on electricity (nuclear). Trains would just need REALLY powerful engines. They would suck down the juice really fast, but with this SCI-FI technology, they will have all the juice they need. I am thinking the same thing with planes. They will have to have a LOT of power, more than could be put into a battery with current technology. However, once again, they will have all the juice they need as long as their "receiver" is intact.
Sci-fi is great. I love playing with tech that isn't available yet, or is just this side of feasible!
Yeah! The only problem, however, is that I have to hold down a full time job while I am writing this. Established writers are lucky to have all the time they need to work on their books.
I like your ideas, and some of them would be really cool (in a bad way) in a real-world scenario, but it kinda screws up the story. Indonesia is just a bucket full of Muslims that will be peacefully invading (immigrating to) Australia and New Zealand. They will serve no other purpose in the book.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.