Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

"What If" hypothetical question for those who are familiar with world politics.
My Brain | August 24th, 2012 | America_Right

Posted on 08/24/2012 2:39:24 PM PDT by America_Right

Heya Freepers,

I have a problem. I started writing a book, and I am getting in over my head, here. I am at a point in the notes for the book where the Middle East is broke because oil is pretty much worthless.

Will the Mid East population roll over Europe? Will they get control of European nukes? Will they immediately use those nukes on Israel and the US? What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?

Believe it or not, this is just the beginning of an epic sci-fi story. Politics is only important in the first part. With this in mind, I suppose I could take the story far enough into the future that current politics may not even be a factor, but it isn't as fun and poignant.


TOPICS: Books/Literature; Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: conflict; middleeast; nuclear; oil

1 posted on 08/24/2012 2:39:34 PM PDT by America_Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: America_Right

how about muslims vs. christians?


2 posted on 08/24/2012 2:42:15 PM PDT by brivette
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

It’s a hypothetical in a book. Choose the path that gives your story the most leeway to expand on your ideas.


3 posted on 08/24/2012 2:42:19 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: saganite

Good point. However, I need it to be as realistic as possible. You should see all the research I am doing for the sci part of the sci-fi! I will have a PhD in physics before this is over.


4 posted on 08/24/2012 2:48:08 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

If oil became worthless (hard to imagine), then much (but not all) of the middle east would fall into extreme poverty.

The rich would flee, the poor would starve. Their militaries would crumble from lack of foreign maintenance support (which is all that keeps them together).

The people would turn on each other and it would become one big Somalia.

Turkey or another Islamic power (not dependent on oil) might then step in to reconstruct the Caliphate over a weak and miserable population.

Of course, if the West didn’t close the door, they WOULD flood into Europe, trying to survive. What better target than the European welfare states.?


5 posted on 08/24/2012 2:48:45 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right
If there's a book in there, it's about how you get oil to be worthless and what the post-petroleum epoch would look like for us.

The political stuff is pretty stale and trashy in comparison.

6 posted on 08/24/2012 2:48:54 PM PDT by x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

1. Start with the end in mind and work backwards as you outline. What is the big conclusion you want to have or lesson you want people to learn? How do events take you there?

2. Is there anything in past history that correlates to this? (Siege of Vienna comes to mind) History has a way of repeating itself.


7 posted on 08/24/2012 2:53:18 PM PDT by mnehring
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right
I suggest researching the Torah and Talmud

The Jews will determine the future of the Middle East because they may not be many but few of the civilized outnumber the many of the savage in our 21st Century technology world.

And if America can survive the Obama pathogen our world will abide for a little while longer.

8 posted on 08/24/2012 2:57:15 PM PDT by Happy Rain ("Who needs Michelle? The MSM keep Obama satisfied.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right
There would of course be a revolt of the Muslim peoples in Europe. Then would begin the "reconquista" all over again, with gathering strengthing armies, some led by groups such as the Templars in Spain (yes they are still there but known as "The Order of Christ").

Fighting would push the Muslims back across the Medeteranean and all of the way back to Istanbul and beyond.

Istanbul would once again be called "Constantinople and become an international holy city like Jerusalem

You see?

9 posted on 08/24/2012 3:00:14 PM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brivette
how about muslims vs. christians?

Or Muslims vs. Aliens?

10 posted on 08/24/2012 3:01:08 PM PDT by Disambiguator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: America_Right
Here you go!

11 posted on 08/24/2012 3:01:24 PM PDT by I see my hands (It's time to.. KICK OUT THE JAMS, MOTHER FREEPERS!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

“What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?”

The Democrats will immediately surrender and apologize, and the RINOs will send them a strongly worded letter. As for the Ivans and the Chicoms, they are not our friends, and will be glad to help- themselves, to whatever they can get, at our expense and that of others.


12 posted on 08/24/2012 3:02:56 PM PDT by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right
Most likely in my mind is that there would mass revolutions and rioting etc in the Arab countries. An invasion of Europe would be unlikely, and would probably get stomped if it happened. It takes a lot to get the Europeans fighting, but they've got better equipment, training, and doctrine then the Arabs, and just as much spirit. The Europeans put up with too much sh*t from the Muslims, but an armed conflict is something they would fight tooth and claw. They'd probably also get US assistance in that sort of thing (NATO and common sense).

That said, Arab governments would try to invent external enemies to redirect their people's fury away from their own government. I can see Israel being attacked by say Syria and Egypt, plus maybe Lebanon and Jordan. That conflict would end up anyway is convenient for your book- anything from the Israelis crushing the Arabs, to a close conflict, to Israel being overrun. But I doubt any Israeli nukes would fall into foreign hands. Simply put, they'd use them before that happens.

Another possibility is Iran leading a war against the Saudis. There is (currently) no love lost between them, and it grates the the Iranians to no end that the Saudis have more economic/diplomatic clout than they do. Additionally, Iran is the de fact leader of Shi'a Islam, while the Saudis are the de facto leaders of Sunni Islam. Each would be happy to do away with the other, and the Iranians especially hate the the most important holy sites in Islam are in Saudi Arabia. Iraq (still a considerable military power in Middle East terms) would certainly end up on the Iranian side. I don't see the Saudis winning this one unless the US intervenes, and even then it might not be good enough.

So basically my uninformed guess is that:

1) A conflict involving Israel would be fairly likely. It's outcome is whatever you want it to be, but the only Israeli nukes that will fall into Arab hands will do so at 14,000 kts.

2) A Gulf conflict between Iran/Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the rump states, Shi'a Islam vs Sunni Islam. If the US intervenes the Saudis probably win, given sufficient buildup of US forces (and maybe British too), if not Iran/Iraq almost certainly wins. If Iran/Iraq win, the Iranians might try to establish a larger Islamic country spanning the mideast to China. Such a country could end up at war with India and Russia, maybe China too. If Pakistan joins Iran those conflicts could go nuclear, but the Islamic country would be the [relative] loser of a nuclear contest (I mean seriously, Russia India and China...). Russia could take some serious territorial losses however.

3) Overall the Arab states descend into the poverty, Sharia, and tribalism that defined them before they got rich off oil. Probably a good amount of Balkanization and border conflicts thrown in for good measure. A couple genocides here and there, especially of Jews, Christians, and other non-Muslims, and mass migrations of people between countries. I can see a mass exodus of people into Europe, and the Europeans deciding to shut immigration down.


Those're all my uninformed but good-for-fiction ideas :)
13 posted on 08/24/2012 3:04:27 PM PDT by verum ago (A good physical therapist is half friend, half sadist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Disambiguator
how about muslims vs. christians?

Or Muslims vs. Aliens?

Let's play cowboys and muzzies.

14 posted on 08/24/2012 3:04:40 PM PDT by Rightwing Conspiratr1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Rightwing Conspiratr1
Let's play cowboys and muzzies.

Cover of that book would have a hangin' rope and a beheadin' scimitar lol
15 posted on 08/24/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by verum ago (A good physical therapist is half friend, half sadist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: x

If there’s a book in there, it’s about how you get oil to be worthless and what the post-petroleum epoch would look like for us.


Yeah, that’s what’s interesting me here. What technological game changer comes about to do that? If ME oil income plumments, they go back to the stone age and, as stated above, become nothing but a mass of Somalias. I, for one, would laugh long, often and hard.


16 posted on 08/24/2012 3:17:23 PM PDT by 98ZJ USMC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

So are the world’s tanks, planes and warships electric?


17 posted on 08/24/2012 3:26:45 PM PDT by gilor (Pull the wool over your own eyes!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: verum ago
Thanks! Your notes almost mirror mine. The only real difference is that I didn't take into account a real shooting war with Europe. I figured they would just roll over and invite immigrants from the Mid East with open arms in the name of diversity and fairness. They are already falling to Muslim immigration. In my story, it just happens faster. I (for now) have the US sitting it out and trying to appease Muslims with international welfare. However, this will not stop the bulk of the Mid East population from moving to a friendly Euro nation that will provide them with everything for doing nothing more than walking across their border.

If I used what you wrote, I would probably be hearing from Tom Clancy's lawyer. :)

18 posted on 08/24/2012 3:29:54 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SampleMan; America_Right

If oil became worthless (hard to imagine)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Not really. However it would never become worth zero, just worth very little compared to today.

Advances and discoveries in natural gas and nuclear would do that very easily. If every country starts fracking for nat gas and starts building thorium reactors, the mid east would go broke very fast.

But over-run europe? no, europe would not allow that. They would over run africa first. Africa has raw materials and slave-like labor and lots of ground for farming. Africa would be the logical path for arab nations to save themselves from starvation. If there is to be a war as a result of the arabs becoming poor and going hungry, it will occur on the african continent.


19 posted on 08/24/2012 3:39:33 PM PDT by mamelukesabre
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: gilor
So are the world’s tanks, planes and warships electric?

Yes. And it is feasible, too, believe it or not.

Remember, this is sci-fi.

20 posted on 08/24/2012 3:39:33 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: mamelukesabre
They would over run africa first. Africa has raw materials and slave-like labor and lots of ground for farming.

Wow, I never even thought of that! It is hard to imagine Africa as having enough resources to be worth taking militarily given their lifestyle.

Keep in mind, I was going to have Europe be taken over without a shot being fired. It seems to me that they are welcoming a Muslim takeover via immigration.

At any rate, Africa just made it into the book. I was just going to use Egypt, but that would be a poor use of MY resources.

21 posted on 08/24/2012 3:45:36 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

european colonists didn’t take over africa because it was a waste of time. They colonized africa because there are rich lands there and no one with the organization talent to extract them.


22 posted on 08/24/2012 3:54:44 PM PDT by mamelukesabre
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: America_Right; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Eurabia will eventually get muzzified, apart from France (I know this is hard to believe); France and Britain have nuclear arsenals they developed and control. I’m not sure any other nation in Europe (apart from the USSR, oops, I mean Russia) have done so. There are US warheads in Europe as part of the NATO defense treaty.


23 posted on 08/24/2012 4:04:46 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 98ZJ USMC
What technological game changer comes about to do that?

THAT is the whole crux - the keystone, if you will, of the story. Can't spoil that for you. :)

24 posted on 08/24/2012 4:21:12 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Rightwing Conspiratr1
Let's play cowboys and muzzies.

You bet!

25 posted on 08/24/2012 4:28:16 PM PDT by Disambiguator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

Congratulations on taking the plunge!

One of the great joys of science fiction - as opposed to fantasy - is that it might actually happen...eventually.

As for your particular question, the short answer is “what do you want to happen?” as in “what events would move your plot along towards the climatic conflict and resolution”?

Also for consideration: some new technology that would make oil nearly worthless would (a) not make it completely worthless, as technology adoption is never 100% and (b) may affect certain uses such as fuel more than others such as plastics, and (c) would take a significant time span to alter world economics, with the time required being related to the adoption curve of the new technologies.

Even something as radical as - for example - practical Tesla-style power broadcasting on a global scale - would take time for the information required to use it to propagate across the globe, for vehicles to be adapted, and so on. And of course there’s always an “old guard” that never adapts (Luddites, in the extreme cases, Amish, gasoline-engine fanatics, etc).

So the upset in the middle east - or Texas - would not happen overnight, but would be gradual. Possibly even decades, or more.

The people in charge would most likely see it coming, and vanish/bail/emigrate et al. The huddled masses would most likely remain huddled masses - they simply don’t have the knowledge or resources to migrate elsewhere. Prime fodder for warlords and opportunists, as demonstrated by the current political climate ;)

That being said, I strongly urge you to consider everything suggested in this thread (the thought about Africa is a good one, for example), and then throw it all out and make happen whatever you want to happen.

good luck, and let us know when it’s done!


26 posted on 08/24/2012 4:44:43 PM PDT by CzarChasm (My opinion. No charge.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: America_Right

Interesting, I think you’ll have fun with this project.

Here’s my $.02 for what its worth:

Most of the Middle East will simply die. The incinerated will linger as a dispersing stench; the irradiated will starve. Jerusalem will be ringed with massive Aegis-style systems firing off from time to time as the surviving Jews hunker down against the odd biomissile launched by fading regional mujahid avenging what was left of the Kaaba. Indonesia starves and self-consumes as the rest of the remaining powers isolate Islam, there no longer being any advantage to pandering to the rabidity of the Faith. China continues to pour engineers and infrastructure resources into sub-Saharan Africa, their occasional genocidal mass killings only opposed by impotent proclamations from a terrified Europe and a self-absorbed United States dying under unsustainable entitlements...


27 posted on 08/24/2012 5:23:02 PM PDT by Robert Teesdale
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mamelukesabre

Airplanes, ships, trains, and small engines would be hard to operate on anything but petroleum.

I would see oil dropping 50 to 70 percent.


28 posted on 08/24/2012 5:40:43 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: CzarChasm
for example - practical Tesla-style power broadcasting on a global scale - would take time for the information required to use it to propagate across the globe, for vehicles to be adapted, and so on.

Bah, you guessed it... Ok, at least some people will know what I am talking about. So much for not spoiling the story. I was planning on having a rather sudden "switch" to the Tesla broadcast after a rather lengthy ramp up to the new grid. Remember the switch to digital TV? Like that, only with more far-reaching implications.

I am definitely using the Africa angle. That was brilliant, as have been some of the other posts on this thread.

I really like the idea of a slow emigration of Mid Easterners. It could (will?) solve the problem of getting the Muslim takeover of Europe underway sooner rather than later.

Thanks for the interest! I will put you on my list of people to email the book to when it is done.

29 posted on 08/24/2012 6:23:37 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: SampleMan
Airplanes, ships, trains, and small engines would be hard to operate on anything but petroleum.

Ships already run on electricity (nuclear). Trains would just need REALLY powerful engines. They would suck down the juice really fast, but with this SCI-FI technology, they will have all the juice they need. I am thinking the same thing with planes. They will have to have a LOT of power, more than could be put into a battery with current technology. However, once again, they will have all the juice they need as long as their "receiver" is intact.

Sci-fi is great. I love playing with tech that isn't available yet, or is just this side of feasible!

30 posted on 08/24/2012 6:33:47 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Robert Teesdale
Interesting, I think you’ll have fun with this project.

Yeah! The only problem, however, is that I have to hold down a full time job while I am writing this. Established writers are lucky to have all the time they need to work on their books.

I like your ideas, and some of them would be really cool (in a bad way) in a real-world scenario, but it kinda screws up the story. Indonesia is just a bucket full of Muslims that will be peacefully invading (immigrating to) Australia and New Zealand. They will serve no other purpose in the book.

31 posted on 08/24/2012 6:46:37 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: America_Right; SampleMan; verum ago
 
 
I'm voting with the above on how the middle-east would disintegrate. You might want to throttle back on the sci-fi tech research and expand on the middle-east - matter of fact it may take up more time to research than all else. There are constants of culture, tribes and religions over there that have never changed and they would fracture right along those lines. The trick would be in determining who would zig and who would zag when they did. As for "immigrants" I think the term refugees would be more fitting since people would be trying to flee the never ending dust-ups and depredation going on. And as ever, there would be bad guys interspersed with the hapless, hoping to hide out while trying to build or continue a conquest in absentia, hoping to gather in and utilize resources from their hosts in order to do so - the most infamous of such European "guests", the Ayatollah Khomeini comes to mind. Guarantee you could come up with a few interesting plot twists.
 
 

32 posted on 08/24/2012 8:42:17 PM PDT by lapsus calami (What's that stink? Code Pink ! ! And their buddy Murtha, too!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson