Posted on 04/08/2016 8:57:46 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
The worst 10 days of Donald Trump’s campaign got him whooped by Ted Cruz in Wisconsin. Nevertheless, Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination on the first ballot are good.
Trump continues to lead Cruz in states/territories won and has a 226 delegate lead. The math is foreboding for Cruz. He has 517 delegates. There are just 769 delegates to be awarded. This means Cruz must win 720 of these 769 remaining delegates to reach the required 1237 and win a first round nomination. Trump has won 743 delegates so he must win 494 of the remaining 769.
This gives Cruz a “tragic number” of 49 meaning the next time 49 delegates are awarded to anyone but Cruz, he is mathematically eliminated from reaching 1237.
The battle now goes to New York, worth 95 delegates. Trump is way ahead and will knock Cruz out on April 19th. Even the most wishful thinkers have Cruz giving up 60 delegates and seeing his mathematical chances come to an end. Trump will eliminate Cruz by getting about 80 delegates.
Next up is the Northeastern Super Tuesday of April 26th when Pennsylvania 71, Delaware 16, Connecticut 28, Rhode Island 19 and Maryland 38 will be voting.
Trump will frame these races as a contest between himself and Mitt Romney, the presumed savior of the Republican Party and the leader GOP elites can hardly wait to anoint as the 2016 nominee. Painting Romney as a landslide loser won’t...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
sadly, I think that is likely 100% true.
Trump cancelled campaigning in a couple of states, including California.
Could Trump be worried about not doing that well in NY?
The stupid in these threads is strong.
Trump v Hillary 2016
Maybe Ted and Bernie could go 3rd party
The math is foreboding for Cruz. He has 517 delegates. There are just 769 delegates to be awarded. This means Cruz must win 720 of these 769 remaining delegates to reach the required 1237... meaning the next time 49 delegates are awarded to anyone but Cruz, he is mathematically eliminated from reaching 1237. The battle now goes to New York, worth 95 delegates. Trump is way ahead and will knock Cruz out on April 19th. Even the most wishful thinkers have Cruz giving up 60 delegates and seeing his mathematical chances come to an end. Trump will eliminate Cruz by getting about 80 delegates.
“Trump cancelled campaigning in a couple of states, including California.
Could Trump be worried about not doing that well in NY?”
New Field poll 4/8/16 has Trump 39/32 over Cruz. It has Trump’s supporter’s enthusiasm since January up from 55% to 58%.
But hey hold on a minute Cruz supporter’s enthusiasm is 61% AND THAT’S GREAT RIGHT? Well not really because it was 74% in January so Cruz is losing and going backward in California.
In New York Trump is at 52% and Cruz is behind Kasich so Trump is not worried about New York or California. This is all academic anyway since Cruz will be mathematically eliminated after New York.
Oh you didn’t know that? Sorry but the “scientific” analyses showing Trump can’t get to 1237 are media/Rove lies. Once Cruz is eliminated mathematically Trump will campaign against Romney and Rove saying, “A vote for Cruz or Kasich is a vote for Romney or some other loser,” and he will clean up. Game over. As Reagan famously said “I win; you lose.”
Maryland “Freak State” PING!
He is eating from le Cuisine du Americain Food Supply du Processed Garbaje. It’s to be expected he’d have to go up a size sooner or later, non?
Canada born Cruz’s eligibility is UNresolved.
I have to admit, I laughed when I read your reply ConservateWarrior! I look forward to us being on the same side in the Fall!
If that is the case you might as well pull the lever for Hillary. Boy, that’ll show them what you believe! Turn down a man who holds positions that are about 95% the same as your man and help Hillary get elected.
Me, I may not be crazy about it, but I will vote for Trump if he is the nominee. Hey, I can ride the USS Trumptanic as well as anyone!
I think the coach needs to go back to sports.
I won’t pull the lever for Clinton but I hope a majority will write in trump in November. If trump does a campaign from July through November “Trump for write in president”. He would get the majority of votes. Keep in mind half the states keep voters from picking the nominee by having establishment politicians pick the nominee. So trump has more popularity then we know.
I don’t mean to insult you, but are you really living in such a dream world? Everyone, out side your 30% of the total population, has negative views about him!
Hey, all I said was:
“Trump cancelled campaigning in a couple of states, including California.
Could Trump be worried about not doing that well in NY?”
If it’s as good as you infer for Trump, WHY do you think Trump cancelled California to spend more time in NY?
Could he have some internal polls that show he can’t get 50%, which would be embarrassing for Trump when it’s only a two and one-half person race?
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