Published on Tammy’s Recipes (http://www.tammysrecipes.com)
Flatbread
Recipe Name: Flatbread
Picture: Flatbread
Get original file (15KB) [1]
Description:

A soft, flavorful flat bread, cooked on the stove top or grill
Yield: 8 six-inch flatbreads
Ingredients:

2 1/4 teaspoons (1 package) dry yeast
1 cup warm water
1 tablespoon olive oil
2 teaspoons sugar
1/4 cup plain yogurt
1 1/2 teaspoons salt
1/2 cup whole wheat flour, sieved before measuring to remove coarse flakes of bran
2 cups bread flour, plus additional as needed
Instructions:

1. Sprinkle yeast over warm water in a medium mixing bowl. Add oil, sugar, and yogurt and mix with a wooden spoon until well combined. Add salt, sieved whole wheat flour, and bread flour, and mix until flour is incorporated. Turn dough out of mixing bowl onto a very lightly floured surface and knead until smooth and elastic, 12 to 15 minutes, adding just enough flour until dough is not sticky but very soft. Allow dough to rise in warm place until doubled, 30 to 45 minutes.

2. On a lightly floured work surface, cut dough into eight equal portions. Shape each portion into a ball and let rest for 10 minutes. Roll each ball into a 4-inch circle and let rest for 10 minutes before rolling into a 6-inch circle.

3. Five to ten minutes before cooking flatbreads, heat a large, heavy skillet (preferably cast iron) over medium-high heat until hot. Working one at a time, lift dough circles and gently stretch about one inch larger and place in skillet. Cook until small bubbles appear on surface of dough, about 30 seconds. Flip bread and cook until bottom is speckled and deep golden brown in spots, about 2 minutes. Flip bread again; cook until bottom is speckled and deep golden brown in spots, 1 to 2 minutes longer.

4. Wrap breads to a clean kitchen towel and serve warm. Or wrap tightly in foil and store at room temperature up to 2 days; reheat in 300-degree oven until warm, about 15 minutes.
Flatbreads
Additional Notes:

This recipe was submitted to me from a reader, Audrey W. The recipe text is completely hers; the photos are property of TammysRecipes.com.

Audrey’s notes:

This recipe is originally from Cook’s Illustrated—one of my favorite cooking magazines. They go for the best-of-the-best, so their recipes can tend to be a bit more involved and time-consuming. I love reading about their testing, though, and what worked and what didn’t and why. And their recipes are really good. :)

Variation: Baked Puffed Flatbread

Follow steps 1 and 2 of Flatbread recipe to make and shape dough. About 30 minutes prior to cooking, heat a pizza stone on the lowest oven rack to 500 degrees. Bake dough rounds on preheated stone until bread is puffed and golden brown on bottom, 5 to 6 minutes. Transfer breads to clean kitchen towel and serve warm or at room temperature.
Flatbreads

More recipe notes from Audrey:

Make sure you let the pieces of dough rest after forming them into balls and again after rolling them into 4-inch circles; otherwise, they will shrink back and not hold their shape. Only one flatbread will fit in a skillet, so speed up the cooking process by using two skillets.

Alternatively, you can give the breads an appealing smoky essence by brushing them lightly with oil and cooking them on the grill, over medium fire, following the same cooking times and techniques.

This is a pretty soft dough, so don’t be tempted to add too much flour. I have grilled them, as I mentioned above. I like the “outdoors” feeling of that, (my bread could cook right along with my meat!) and it kept my kitchen from heating up in the summer. In the baked variation, they are supposed to puff up and have a pocket like a pita, but I have never tried this.

Making the dough in a food processor:

In the workbowl of a food processor fitted with the stainless steel blade, sprinkle yeast over warm water. Add oil, sugar, and yogurt and pulse to mix, about four 1-second bursts. Add salt, sieved whole wheat flour, and brea flour; process until smooth, about 15 seconds, scraping down sides of bowl as necessary. Process dough (adding more flour as necessary until dough just pulls completely away from sides of bowl) until soft and satiny, about 30 seconds. Allow dough to rise in a warm place until doubled, 30 to 45 minutes.

Note from Tammy: I made this dough in my bread machine on the dough cycle. You can refer to your machine’s instruction manual; for mine, I just added all ingredients starting with the wet ingredients, then the dry ingredients, and ending with the yeast on top.
Preparation Time: 40 minutes + rising time
Cooking Time: 5 minutes
Tammy’s Review:

Delicious, easy, and fun! My children helped me make these and we had a blast! Perfect with an afternoon snack of hummus dip [1], and then we re-warmed the leftover flatbreads to serve with soup for dinner!

I made mine with 100% whole wheat flour, adding some additional gluten flour and other natural dough conditioners (see our article about natural dough conditioners for the how’s and why’s! [1]). If you follow the directions for using bread flour and sifting the wheat flour, you wouldn’t need the additional dough conditioners though. :)

This recipe is similar to my recipe for pita pockets [1]! However, it is a little more savoury and has the grill/stove top instructions, and when prepared with those methods the bread stay flat instead of puffing like the baked pita pockets! :)

My rating: 10/10

Source URL:
http://www.tammysrecipes.com/flatbread

Links:
[1] http://www.tammysrecipes.com/files/flatbreadban.jpg

http://kellythekitchenkop.com/category/asthma

[Article had many hidden links and links to other sites]

Autism, ADD, ADHD, constipation, candida, asthma, learning / behavioral problems & depression - Natasha Campbell-McBride: Gut and Psychology Syndrome

September 16, 2008 · 10 comments

I was very excited to hear Dr. Natasha Campbell-McBride speak at Saturday’s Deidre Currie Festival. It seems that everywhere I turn I hear more about her work these days, and it all makes so much sense. Following is the information from my notes at the talk.

First, if you just need the GAPS recommended probiotics, the GAPS book, or other resources, you can go to this GAPS resources post. Also, if you’d rather watch and listen to learn, at this link you can buy a GAPS DVD, which is on sale right now. It is a 90 minute live presentation, titled “Children’s Health”, by Dr. Natasha Campbell-McBride, the author of the book “Gut and Psychology Syndrome”. This DVD provides a good overview of GAPS and is a great companion to the GAPS book. (This site also has a sale on the Bio-Kult probiotic right now, too.)

Do “quick fixes” really heal, or just treat the symptoms for a while?

First of all, she doesn’t propose that her diet is an easy or quick fix. Real solutions rarely are. Instead she teaches how to heal conditions that have stumped doctors for years, such as ADD, ADHD, learning/behavior/social problems, autism, depression, reflux, constipation and other digestive issues, and many others - she said it sometimes takes up to two years or more on this diet. Until now, the only treatment was aimed at the symptoms, and there weren’t whole body evaluations or any lasting cures. The answers only involved more medications and side effects.

A little background information

photo by Cheeseslave

Dr. Natasha Campbell-McBride worked as a neurologist and neurosurgeon in Russia, and now lives in England. At the age of three, her son was diagnosed as severely autistic. “Having looked at his profound digestive abnormalities, I found that my own profession had nothing to offer my own child. He is now fifteen years old and cured. That was a fateful event in my life and what it took to knock this doctor out of the mainstream. Every medical doctor I have met who has ‘moved to our side’ has had something like this happen to a loved one.”

I just bought this book by Dr. Natasha Campbell-McBride: Gut & Psychology Syndrome, and was surprised at the cost - but I looked and couldn’t find it cheaper anywhere else. Yet I suppose when you think of all the answers inside and what it could mean for families, it’s actually pretty inexpensive.

WHAT IS GAPS SYNDROME?

* In children it can be diagnosed as: autism, ADHD/ADD, dyslexia, dyspraxia, and the largest group are those with these three: learning, behavior, & social problems.

* Unless something drastic and serious is done to help the above children, they become adults with these problems: more prone to substance abuse (and higher chances of reacting adversely to drugs), depression, obsessive/compulsive disorder, manic-depressive, and schizophrenia.

* The numbers are growing, and it can maim the lives of not only these children and adults, but of whole families for the rest of their lives. The medical community doesn’t offer any cures; all that is offered is symptomatic treatments.

* In a clinical setting, one feature unites all these problems: THEY ALL HAVE DIGESTIVE PROBLEMALITIES.

* In chidren, digestive issues are usually the first symptom. Sometimes they are severe, but other times they’re not so severe and you only find out later, after talking more about their history, that they have these problems.

* Sometimes GAPS patients have allergies, asthma & eczema (those two usually alternate), thrush, or chronic cystitis (bladder infection) - have you ever heard of a doctor who would ask them about any digestive problems when they show up with these symptoms?

* Chronic Cystitis: through the urine is how toxins are moved out of our body. If they build up in the blood instead, it causes chronic inflammation and symptoms of cystitis. They test the urine but don’t find an infection, so they don’t know how to help.

* Thrush/yeast overgrowth in the vagina or any sweaty, warm places. A healthy body is populated by beneficial flora that live in harmony with us in the skin, mucus membranes, vagina, bladder, urethra, everywhere in the body. But if you’ve been on a lot of antibiotics, if there are environmental toxins, stress, a bad diet, or all these things, your body flora changes. Good bacteria are gone and it opens the gate for pathogens. The first thing you might see is often candida and other yeasts that cause thrush.

* If your body is well equipped, yeast can’t settle in your body and cause harm. If it has already settled and started causing problems, it is an alarm bell that your immune system is not working properly. This is the time to make drastic changes.

* Some GAPS children suffer from malnutrition, but may look well nourished. When tested we find multiple nutritional deficiencies. Others look like African children: they are too skinny, with bulging tummies.

* GAPS patients often have colic, bloating/gas (as a colicky baby grows it becomes indigestion and heartburn - in a baby it was called reflux), diarrhea, or constipation - which is more severe than diarrhea because toxins sit inside there a long time and then get into the bloodstream.

* Feeding difficulties are universally present in these patients. They are finicky eaters. (Siblings of autistic children are almost universally picky eaters, too.) Their bodies learn that food makes them ill so they limit the foods they’ll eat to the very foods that harm them most - sweet, starchy foods, sweet yogurts, bananas. When the toxins absorb they give the brain a pleasure signal, so the brain wants more and they become drug addicts in a way.

* The trouble is that when you tell them about changing the diet, a lot of parents ask, “how do I change my child’s eating habits, they will gag and not eat any of this!” In my GAPS book there is a whole chapter, a structured approach, on how to change a finicky child’s diet gradually - you have to pull them out of the vicious cycle of cravings and dependency. They will fight you every step, but you have to help pull them out. One child lived on crackers and they took them to a dietician who said, “it’s ok, at least he’s eating.” He looked like he was from Ethiopia. After 2 months of following the GAPS diet he was eating everything, but the parents have to be determined and strong.

* In some patients we’ll discover in an x-ray that there is a fecal compaction with over-spill and inflammation, similar to what you see with Crohns or Colitis, due to multiple nutritional deficiencies. This is when the digestive track is blocked with old compacted feces that are literally glued to the gut wall. It is not completely emptied when they go, so the passage is narrow, and then more gets compacted. It becomes so narrow, food can hardly seep through. When the child finally goes to the bathroom it is so painful, they are afraid to go again.

* In our gut (our intestinal tract), there are many beneficial microbes; they have established a symbiotic relationship with our bodies. 90% of all cells in our body are gut flora - we are a shell to hold this massive amount of bacteria - our health depends hugely on the health and status of this mixture of bacteria.

* The gut flora protects it from invaders, maintains the health and integrity of the gut, provides digestion and absorption, vitamin production, detoxification, and a healthy immune system.

* GAPS patients have what’s called Gut Dysbiosis or “leaky gut” They have reduced or absent populations of normal flora.

* The digestive track all spread out would cover a tennis court, and it’s the perfect place for anything harmful in the environment to settle, yet the good bacteria there chelate (remove) chemicals and toxic metals - if they can’t destroy it, they grab and it take it from the body.

* Two groups of rats were given organic mercury. One group were given a powerful antibiotic, the other group were not. The mercury got into the bloodstream of only about 1% of those without the antibiotic, and 90% of those with the antibiotic. Keep gut flora healthy and strong and it will protect you. (When antibiotics are taken they wipe out bad bacteria AND beneficial bacteria.)

* The government says we should limit our fish consumption due to mercury in the ocean, but yet those who do NOT limit it are in better health (because it promotes healthy gut flora). If you have healthy solid gut flora, it will chelate the mercury and take it out.

* Apart from insuring that food is digested properly, good gut flora also takes part in synthesizing B vitamins - our main source is our gut flora. If someone is pale and pasty it usually can be due to vitamin B deficiencies - no matter how many supplements they take, they are still deficient.

* First thing that has to be done: detoxification. Digestion itself (environmental, etc.)produces dangerous chemicals, nitrates, etc. With beneficial gut flora, the toxins it can’t change are taken out.

* Chemical Chelation can be dramatic and cause regression - it pulls mercury or lead out of storage cells (fatty tissue - the brain & nervous system are mostly fat) - she recommends no chelation because a healthy gut is the better way (chelation pulls out good stuff, too).

* If gut flora is compromised, the body tries to compensate and this results in allergies, asthma, and inappropriate reaction to environmental toxins. Even if you were never allergic before, and then allergies begin, soon they’ll slide down to being allergic to everything.

* 85% of the immune system is located in the gut wall.

* GAPS Patients & Gut Dysbiosis: reduced/absent populations of normal flora, candida species overgrowth, clostridia species, sulphate reducing bacteria (most are deficient in sulfur as it’s necessary to detoxify), viruses (measles, herpes, cmv, etc.)

* A study done in Britain shows clostridia in higher amounts in autistic children than the rest of the population. Antibiotics work, but you can’t be on them forever. Only way to fight it is the natural way - with gut flora.

* Birth Control Pill has a devastating effect on gut health, as well as overuse of personal care products on skin & hair and in the mouth.

* Almost 100% of Moms with GAPS children have abnormal gut flora.

* Most autism begins when nursing stops.

* Vaccinations were developed for healthy children with healthy immune systems, but most are not fit to be vaccinated. She doesn’t feel these are a direct cause with autism, but it seems to have become a “last straw” in these cases where the gut flora is on the tipping point.

How to treat this condition

“It isn’t hopeless, we’ve treated these children for years with good results.”

1. Diet (specific carb diet - more on this in the book above) heals these conditions (often misdiagnosed as gluten issues/celiac disease - only about 5% of these conditions qualify as true celiac disease - 17% of true celiacs don’t do well on gluten-free diet.

2. Effective probiotics are crucial. Regular fermented foods or probiotics are not strong enough for healing, but OK for healthy people to stay healthy. However, a therapeutic dose (with more organisms) will have a “die off” reaction - it will kill off pathogens and release toxins, so sudden amounts will cause a serious reaction. To control this, start from tiny amount and build up gradually and slowly - majority patients can move fast through this - it’s different for different people. If you have severe problems, start from a bit of powder for 2-4 weeks, then 2 bits, and so on - once therapeutic level reached, stay on it for a while, later they can be gradually reduced and replaced by fermented foods.

3. Address nutritional deficiencies - she’s not in favor of a lot of supplements - nutrition is always best from food, healthy food. The diet is so nutrient dense that it removes most nutritional deficiencies quickly. She doesn’t recommend a multi-vitamin, in late stages maybe, but not in initial stages. Fish oils are essential from the beginning - for fat soluble vitamins & omega 3’s - more here on why cod liver oil is so beneficial.

4. Detoxification is an important part of the treatment process - “I believe in natural detoxification, in using our own digestive system. More than 80% of anything harmful in your blood is from your own digestive system. That’s why keeping it healthy is so vital to us.” In GAPS patients, nutrients don’t get absorbed. We all have our own detox system responsible for removing toxins that come from the outside or from the gut. The system can get overloaded, like a traffic jam. TWO METHODS: A. The liver gets clogged, so it is recommended that parents introduce juicing - a time proven method of removing all sorts of toxins from the body. Start gradually, 1/3 c. (kids 1 t.) a day to start, in case of a severe die off. This is very effective - juicing provides substances to pull toxins out of storage, but will also provide live enzymes and fatty acids. B. Baths with Epsom or Sea salt, and cider vinegar - alternate those two. This pulls toxins from the skin while the child is happily playing in the tub.

5. Your toxic load needs to be reduced - your exposure to man-made chemicals. Re-think everything used in the home, or for personal care. All can be toxic and are absorbed through the skin and end up at the liver.

6. Supplementation - probiotics (see above for more info) & cod liver oil (for vitamin A, D, & fatty acids), digestive enzymes (not for everyone, these are not needed for children - they can restore them on their own easier.)

Many more details on all this are in her book above.

HAS ANYONE TRIED THE GAPS DIET? IF SO, PLEASE COMMENT BELOW AND TELL US ABOUT YOUR EXPERIENCE!

* My 2nd post about GAPS with more details on the diet
* Email for Dr. Natasha Campbell-McBride: nashcam@lineone.net - however, I emailed her once a couple months ago with a question and never heard back, so I’m not sure how often she checks her box…

* Website: http://www.medinform.co.uk/

* GAPS resources - cod liver oil, probiotics, digestive enzymes, GAPS book
* GAPS site
* School lunches - healthy alternatives
* Cheeseslave has her family on the GAPS diet and posts great info and recipes
* More information and resources that may be helpful to you

http://dp.biology.dal.ca/reports/mcpheest.htm#Impact

[snipped]

Some Positive Impacts of Weeds

Not all weeds are undesirable. In many systems, particularly in the tropics, weeds are useful elements in agricultural systems. Certain weeds have been shown to increase the profitability of a system (Showler et. al., 1991). Weeds are adapted to colonize disturbed sites. As such, they are excellent for soil cover and in erosion control. Weeds are often used in tropical systems as COVER CROPS AND LIVING MULCHES
and to minimize nutrient and soil loss through erosion and leaching. In agricultural systems around the world, weeds play a number of beneficial roles. Some of these roles include

* raising the level of soil organic matter
* reducing pest outbreaks; weed polyculture can have a stabilizing effect which combats frequent and severe pest outbreaks (Showler et. al., 1990).
* improving the level of nitrogen availability; leguminous weeds can increase crop yield by fixing nitrogen (Altieri, 1988).
* conserving moisture in the soil
* serving as alternate food sources; weeds may be used as animal fodder, and are also alternative sources of food for humans before harvest or if the crop is destroyed or yield is smaller than anticipated.
* influencing herbivore density;. weeds have been shown to alter the movement and searching behavior or certain herbivores, thus reducing herbivore damage to crops (Altieri, 1988).
* protecting the soil surface from solar radiation
* enhancing crop resistance and adaptive range: many weeds around crops are wild relatives, and are able to breed with the crops; interbreeding leads to an increase in gene flow, and thus to increased variability and genetic diversity - that can improve crop performance, especially in marginal areas. Distinct and fertile hybrids can preserve genes, and protect against the possible detrimental effects of a monoculture (Altieri, 1988).
* improving the soil microclimate, including the temperature and moisture level
* providing shelter and food for beneficial organisms; the presence of weeds can increase the presence and diversity of arthropod prey and predators, the natural enemies of certain insects, which may minimize insect damage to the crops (Showler et. al, 1990, 1991).
* other miscellaneous uses, such as ceremonial materials, medicinal uses, raw material for paper, ornamental purposes, crop fertilizer, source of biogas, important agents in tertiary sewage treatment; For further uses, see the table below, Buen Monte/Mal Monte.

Contents

http://dp.biology.dal.ca/reports/kazimirstt.html

Traditional Agriculture

Traditional Paddy Field in Thailand
Table of Contents

* Overview
o Introduction
o Types of Traditional Agriculture
o Common Characteristics of Traditional Systems
o Preservation of Biodiversity
* Ladakh; A Case Study of Traditional Agriculture
* Key Facts and Figures
* Important Terms
* Commentary: Future of Traditional Agriculture
* Useful Links
* Useful Literature
* Cited Literature

Urban Agriculture Notes

by City Farmer - Canada’s Office of Urban Agriculture

donate
Now Celebrating Our 31th Year!
Mayor of Vancouver Proclaims November, 2003 “City Farmer Month”!!
Established 1978, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Prepared by Michael Levenston, Executive Director
cityfarm@interchange.ubc.ca
On-line on the World Wide Web since October 15, 1994.
© Copyright City Farmer 1994-2009

Our New City Farmer Web Site - “City Farmer News” (www.cityfarmer.info)

On January 1, 2008, we created a new web site “City Farmer News” at (www.cityfarmer.info) where all our new stories are featured.

This site, “Urban Agriculture Notes” (www.cityfarmer.org), which has been running continuously since 1994 with its hundreds of pages of urban agriculture information, will remain online and will be updated when necessary with corrected emails, URL’s, etc. It is still a gold mine of useful resources.
March 23, 2008

http://www.cityfarmer.org/

[Lots of growing information.........]

http://dp.biology.dal.ca/reports/topics.html

Agroecosystems Home Page | Site Contents

AGROECOSYSTEM TOPICS
# Also on this page: About the Agroecosystems Topics
# About Web Literacy

1 Temperate region AGROFORESTRY
2 DESERTIFICATION
3 LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY AND AGRICULTURE
(NEW fall 01)
4 LIVESTOCK GENETIC DIVERSITY
5 PESTICIDES and BIODIVERSITY
(NEW fall 01)
6 TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE**
7 URBAN AGRICULTURE
7b CASE STUDY: CIENFUEGOS, CUBA
8 WEEDS

Other Web Sites or Pages by Dal students
on botanical or agricultural topics

* Dalhousie Cactus Collection**

About Agroecosystem Topics

The Agroecosystem Topics are term papers which students prepare as Web pages, learning the basics of HTML and how to post documents on the Web and write for the Web in the process. Only final submissions that achieve an A grade and require little or no editing are posted. None of the students whose Topics are posted on this site had prior experience preparing Web pages, thus these pages illustrate what can be accomplished in technical terms after mastering introductory level “Web Literacy” skills. All of the pages, as well as hundreds of contributions made to an electronic class bulletin board, are drawn upon to construct other pages at this site.

**These pages or sites were prepared as term papers for half-semester Special Topics (directed studies) classes.

A Tale of Two Depressions

Barry Eichengreen Kevin H. O’Rourke
6 April 2009

Often cited comparisons – which look only at the US – find that today’s crisis is milder than the Great Depression. In this column, two leading economic historians show that the world economy is now plummeting in a Great-Depression-like manner; indeed, world industrial production, trade and stock markets are diving faster now than during 1929-30. Fortunately, the policy response to date is much better.

The parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and our current Great Recession have been widely remarked upon. Paul Krugman has compared the fall in US industrial production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks, showing that it has been milder this time. On this basis he refers to the current situation, with characteristic black humour, as only “half a Great Depression.” The “Four Bad Bears” graph comparing the Dow in 1929-30 and S&P 500 in 2008-9 has similarly had wide circulation (Short 2009). It shows the US stock market since late 2007 falling just about as fast as in 1929-30.

Comparing the Great Depression to now for the world, not just the US

This and most other commentary contrasting the two episodes compares America then and now. This, however, is a misleading picture. The Great Depression was a global phenomenon. Even if it originated, in some sense, in the US, it was transmitted internationally by trade flows, capital flows and commodity prices. That said, different countries were affected differently. The US is not representative of their experiences.

Our Great Recession is every bit as global, earlier hopes for decoupling in Asia and Europe notwithstanding. Increasingly there is awareness that events have taken an even uglier turn outside the US, with even larger falls in manufacturing production, exports and equity prices.

In fact, when we look globally, as in Figure 1, the decline in industrial production in the last nine months has been at least as severe as in the nine months following the 1929 peak. (All graphs in this column track behaviour after the peaks in world industrial production, which occurred in June 1929 and April 2008.) Here, then, is a first illustration of how the global picture provides a very different and, indeed, more disturbing perspective than the US case considered by Krugman, which as noted earlier shows a smaller decline in manufacturing production now than then.

Figure 1. World Industrial Output, Now vs Then

Source: Eichengreen and O’Rourke (2009).

Similarly, while the fall in US stock market has tracked 1929, global stock markets are falling even faster now than in the Great Depression (Figure 2). Again this is contrary to the impression left by those who, basing their comparison on the US market alone, suggest that the current crash is no more serious than that of 1929-30.

Figure 2. World Stock Markets, Now vs Then

Source: Global Financial Database.

Another area where we are “surpassing” our forbearers is in destroying trade. World trade is falling much faster now than in 1929-30 (Figure 3). This is highly alarming given the prominence attached in the historical literature to trade destruction as a factor compounding the Great Depression.

Figure 3. The Volume of World Trade, Now vs Then

Sources: League of Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, http://www.cpb.nl/eng/research/sector2/data/trademonitor.html

It’s a Depression alright

To sum up, globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US causes one to minimize this alarming fact. The “Great Recession” label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.

That said, we are only one year into the current crisis, whereas after 1929 the world economy continued to shrink for three successive years. What matters now is that policy makers arrest the decline. We therefore turn to the policy response.

Policy responses: Then and now

Figure 4 shows a GDP-weighted average of central bank discount rates for 7 countries. As can be seen, in both crises there was a lag of five or six months before discount rates responded to the passing of the peak, although in the present crisis rates have been cut more rapidly and from a lower level. There is more at work here than simply the difference between George Harrison and Ben Bernanke. The central bank response has differed globally.

Figure 4. Central Bank Discount Rates, Now vs Then (7 country average)

Source: Bernanke and Mihov (2000); Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, St. Louis Fed, National Bank of Poland, Sveriges Riksbank.

Figure 5 shows money supply for a GDP-weighted average of 19 countries accounting for more than half of world GDP in 2004. Clearly, monetary expansion was more rapid in the run-up to the 2008 crisis than during 1925-29, which is a reminder that the stage-setting events were not the same in the two cases. Moreover, the global money supply continued to grow rapidly in 2008, unlike in 1929 when it levelled off and then underwent a catastrophic decline.

Figure 5. Money Supplies, 19 Countries, Now vs Then

Source: Bordo et al. (2001), IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD Monthly Economic Indicators.

Figure 6 is the analogous picture for fiscal policy, in this case for 24 countries. The interwar measure is the fiscal surplus as a percentage of GDP. The current data include the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update forecasts for 2009 and 2010. As can be seen, fiscal deficits expanded after 1929 but only modestly. Clearly, willingness to run deficits today is considerably greater.

Figure 6. Government Budget Surpluses, Now vs Then

Source: Bordo et al. (2001), IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2009.

Conclusion

To summarize: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30.

The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work. For the answer, stay tuned for our next column.

References

Eichengreen, B. and K.H. O’Rourke. 2009. “A Tale of Two Depressions.” In progress.

Bernanke, B.S. 2000. Bernanke, B.S. and I. Mihov. 2000. “Deflation and Monetary Contraction in the Great Depression: An Analysis by Simple Ratios.” In B.S. Bernanke, Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bordo, M.D., B. Eichengreen, D. Klingebiel and M.S. Martinez-Peria. 2001. “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?” Economic Policy32: 51-82.

Paul Krugman, “The Great Recession versus the Great Depression,” Conscience of a Liberal (20 March 2009).

Doug Short, “Four Bad Bears,” DShort: Financial Lifecycle Planning” (20 March 2009).
This article may be reproduced with appropriate attribution. See Copyright (below).

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

http://www.nationalterroralert.com/

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Japan Firm Says Nuke Shelter Sales Up
Mon, 6/04/09 – 22:09
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al Qaeda-Taliban Combo Has Chemical Weapon Formula
Mon, 6/04/09 – 21:55 |
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American Al Qaeda In Somalia Hold Press Conference

Thanks for posting the article.

I'm not very good at posting the complete page.

BTW have 6” snow and still coming down here. scared we will get a hard freeze and zap berries..

>>>BTW have 6” snow and still coming down here. scared we will get a hard freeze and zap berries..<<<

OUCH!...

We got considerably colder today too, and low may get to 28 tonight. Lots of fruit trees are in bloom and this won’t help - here’s hoping we get some of that global warming soon.....

Here's hoping we both don't suffer a freeze tonight..

Better read this and see if you can post it for all

a link to the “TBS GOOD NEWS” /sarc ( how many remember that? HA)

” Never Waste a Crisis... $200 Oil “

http://theburningplatform.com/economy/wasting-a-good-crisis-result-—200-oil#comments

WASTING A GOOD CRISIS: RESULT - $200 OIL

Rohm Emanuel’s famous quote regarding the current financial crisis, "Never let a serious crisis go to waste...it's an opportunity to do things you couldn't do before." was ignored last summer when oil prices reached $147 a barrel. The Obama administration has taken advantage of the financial crisis to ram through their socialist agenda which will add trillions to the National Debt. It will stimulate unions, bureaucrats, government employees, and defense contractors. It will do nothing to address the looming energy crisis which will sweep over the country shortly. Again, politicians and pundits will be shocked and astonished when oil soars. They will vilify oil companies, OPEC, and the dreaded speculators. They ignore the old fashioned supply and demand equation that even a dimwitted Congressman should be able to comprehend.

Instead of addressing the crucial issues that have led to the U.S. being dependent on foreign oil to the tune of $500 billion per year, Congress decided to spend your tax dollars on the following vital items (compliments of Casey Research):

· $200,000 for tattoo removal for gang members in California.

· $98 million for a Coast Guard ice breaker closing an ice-breaking gap. (what about global warming)

· $950,000 for a bikeway in Kentucky.

· $2 million for astronomy awareness in Hawaii.

· $190,000 for a Buffalo Bill Historical Center.

· $650 million for the digital to analog converter box program.

· $1.8 million to study the effect of swine odor on the environment. (rumor has it the study will be conducted in the halls of Congress)

When oil prices collapsed from $147 a barrel in the summer of 2008 to $35 a barrel in January, American drivers, Congress, government bureaucrats, and the mainstream media refocused on other more pressing issues like executive bonuses, Michele Obama’s wardrobe, and the tax law knowledge of Obama’s cabinet. The attention span of the average American is shorter than a gnat’s. As they text and twitter through life, the energy infrastructure continues to rust away, decades old wells are closer to depletion, and alternative energy projects have been scrapped by the thousands. Peak oil likely occurred between 2005 and 2009. The production of oil will now embark on a long slow decline. The world is not prepared.

The history of energy in the United States is really only 160 years old, with coal being utilized starting in 1850 and oil only becoming a viable fuel beginning in 1900. Essentially, the world has found lakes of oil under the crust of the earth. If you pump 82 million barrels of oil from a lake per day, the lake will eventually go empty. New lakes are found every year, but the easy to get to lakes have all been found. The new lakes are deep under the sea or in tar sands and shale deposits. These sources take as long as a decade to reach and billions of infrastructure investment. With petroleum in permanent decline, the U.S. needed to have a plan 20 years ago.

Figure 1. Energy Consumption by Source, 1635-2000

Source: Department of Energy

Matt Simmons, the brilliant energy analyst and author of Twilight in the Desert, recently told Reuters, "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner. These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike."

In this scenario, low oil prices will continue to take oil fields out of production and reduce exploration. Once prices recover, companies will have trouble gearing back up due to the credit crunch, resulting in production increase delays.
Simmons describes what will happen. "Unless oil demand falls by 10 or 15 percent per annum, which it is not going to do, then we don't need to wait for oil demand to come back before we have a supply crunch." This is on no one’s radar.

Peak Oil

When pundits on CNBC speak authoritatively about peak oil being a fallacy, their misleading blather is believed by supposedly intelligent people. They expound that we are not running out of oil. There are billions of barrels left inside the earth. Peak oil does not mean that we are in imminent danger of running out of oil. Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction was reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.

Figure 13. Oil Well Productivity

Source: Department of Energy

The depletion of existing sources is more rapid than any new sources that can be brought online. Production in the United States is in relentless decline. The view of Alaskan oil production from 1975 until today clearly shows how rapidly oil fields can decline. What has happened in the United States is now happening on a worldwide basis. The U.S. Department of Energy published a report from some of the top energy minds in the world in 2005. The lead author Robert Hirsch produced a comprehensive report on the peak oil issue called, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management. The conclusions were frightening. What has the U.S, government done in response? NOTHING

The overwhelming majority of industry petroleum geologists, scientists, and economists who worked on the report projected global peak production being reached between 2005 and 2010. The report’s disturbing conclusions are as follows:

World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector).
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.

- 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts

- A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers

- Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

Both supply and demand will require attention.
It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
Government intervention will be required.
Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.”)

Source: Hirsch Report

Considering that global oil production peaked or is peaking between 2005 and 2010, we are destined for the 3rd scenario of severe consequences. Economic upheaval is now inevitable. It is the American way to not do anything until it is too late. The Hirsch Report urges a crash program of new technologies and changes in manners and attitudes in the US and as well implying more research and development. The urging has gone unheeded. The worldwide global recession is the only reason you are not paying $5.00 a gallon for gasoline today. Supply did not increase, demand leveled off.

World demand “plummeted” from 87 million barrels per in early 2008 to 84 million barrels per day in early 2009, a full 3.5% decline. If the world economy levels off and resumes growth, demand will immediately surpass previous levels. The problem is that production has peaked and will likely drop below 80 million barrels in 2010. When demand is rising and supply is declining, only one thing can happen – higher prices.

The peaking of hydrocarbon supply is vital not just to our country’s future, it is enormously critical to our global economic conduct. Optimists argue that oil has not peaked, and will not peak for decades. They base this on widely held beliefs, including the extent of the world’s energy resource endowment, the ability of technology to recover larger amounts of oil once left behind, the lag time between high oil prices and the ramped-up drilling they kindle, the remarkable amount of unconventional oil that has become commercially feasible because of high prices, and undetermined technology advancements. Those who ridicule peak oil, think the term means "running out of oil" instead of the true definition: "oil production can no longer grow."

The optimists dismissed the fact that oil prices reaching $147 a barrel had anything to do with constricting market fundamentals. Instead, they argued that lofty crude prices were merely a by-product of a weak dollar, hedge fund speculation, geopolitical trepidation, downstream log jams, the Iraq war, Nigerian political turmoil and the craving for high prices within OPEC, which kept enormous spare capacity shut in. When prices skyrocket again, these optimists will produce new excuses. Facts are facts. Easily found cheap sources of energy are in terminal decline.

Matt Simmons explains the long and winding road to our current predicament:

Between 1970 and 1979, world oil demand grew from 47 million barrels per day to 65 million barrels per day, a jump in 10 years of an astonishing 18 million barrels per day. This is how we ate up the world’s spare capacity and at the same time caused U.S. supply to peak. Thus, the price of oil skyrocketed.
From 1979 through 1983, demand fell four straight years, retreating back to 59 million barrels per day. Most of this change came as oil ended its role as a prime feedstock for power generation. This probably would have happened even if oil prices had not gone so high, as the world was finally rolling out nuclear fuel.
Once demand hit bottom in 1983, it quietly began to grow again, though the growth was masked by the beginning of a prolonged collapse of oil use throughout the USSR. Nevertheless, total world demand grew from the 59 million base in 1983 to 69 million in 1994, an increase of 10 million barrels per day. This increase, interestingly, came at a time when most of the oil pundits were wringing their hands, declaring that oil demand was so stagnant that low oil prices were the new world order.
In 1995, global oil demand finally edged over 70 million barrels per day for the first time in history. Between 1994 (the last time it was under 70 million barrels per day) and the end of 2008, demand grew to 86 million barrels per day – a jump of 16 million barrels per day in 13 years. This explains why we used up every last pocket of spare productive capacity and ran out of drilling rigs.

Saudi Arabia is Lying

Saudi Arabia has been claiming that they are capable of ramping up oil production from its many oil fields. The chart below tells a different story. The largest Saudi fields have entered permanent decline. The largest field in the world, Ghawar, was discovered in 1948 and peaked at 5.6 million barrels per day in 1980. It now produces 5.0 million barrels per day. The 3rd largest field in the world, Safaniyah, was discovered in 1951 and peaked at 2.1 million barrels in 1998. It now produces 1.3 million barrels per day. One third of global oil supply comes from 20 large fields discovered prior to 1970. They have all peaked. 94% of global supply comes from 1,500 wells. If Saudi Arabia had the ability to ramp up production, they most certainly would have in 2008 when prices rose over $100 a barrel. They did not, because they could not.

Saudi_oil_production_2

Source: Oil Drum

“World reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They’re not delineated, they’re not accessible, and they’re not available for production.”

Sadad I. Al Husseini, former VP of Aramco, October 2007.

Worldwide reserves peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries. Total worldwide reserves are reported to be 1,200 billion barrels. Much of the increases in reserves since 1980 are lies. Al Husseini argues that 25% of the proven reserves in the world are speculative and not accessible. The following chart tells a fascinating story. Amazingly, each of these OPEC countries had dramatic leaps in their proven reserves, with Saudi Arabia having a 50% increase in one year with no major new discoveries. These self reported figures are not audited or verified in any way. Since production quotas are based on total reserves, the higher your reserves, the bigger your piece of the pie. Since 1988, Saudi Arabia has pumped at least 44 billion barrels of oil, but still has proven reserves of 264 billion with no major new discoveries. If you believe that, I have a package of 1,000 subprime mortgages that is rated AAA I’d like to sell you.

Declared reserves of major OPEC Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review - June 2008
Year	Iran	Iraq	Kuwait	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Venezuela	Libya	Nigeria
1980	58.3	30.0	67.9	168.0	30.4	19.5	20.3	16.7
1981	57.0	32.0	67.7	167.9	32.2	19.9	22.6	16.5
1982	56.1	59.0	67.2	165.5	32.4	24.9	22.2	16.8
1983	55.3	65.0	67.0	168.8	32.3	25.9	21.8	16.6
1984	58.9	65.0	92.7	171.7	32.5	28.0	21.4	16.7
1985	59.0	65.0	92.5	171.5	33.0	54.5	21.3	16.6
1986	92.9	72.0	94.5	169.7	97.2	55.5	22.8	16.1
1987	92.9	100.0	94.5	169.6	98.1	58.1	22.8	16.0
1988	92.9	100.0	94.5	255.0	98.1	58.5	22.8	16.0
1989	92.9	100.0	97.1	260.1	98.1	59.0	22.8	16.0
1990	92.9	100.0	97.0	260.3	98.1	60.1	22.8	17.1
1991	92.9	100.0	96.5	260.9	98.1	62.6	22.8	20.0
1992	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.2	98.1	63.3	22.8	21.0
1993	92.9	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.4	22.8	21.0
1994	94.3	100.0	96.5	261.4	98.1	64.9	22.8	21.0
1995	93.7	100.0	96.5	261.5	98.1	66.3	29.5	20.8
1996	92.6	112.0	96.5	261.4	97.8	72.7	29.5	20.8
1997	92.6	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	74.9	29.5	20.8
1998	93.7	112.5	96.5	261.5	97.8	76.1	29.5	22.5
1999	93.1	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	29.5	29.0
2000	99.5	112.5	96.5	262.8	97.8	76.8	36.0	29.0
2001	99.1	115.0	96.5	262.7	97.8	77.7	36.0	31.5
2002	130.7	115.0	96.5	262.8	97.8	77.3	36.0	34.3
2003	133.3	115.0	99.0	262.7	97.8	77.2	39.1	35.3
2004	132.7	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	79.7	39.1	35.9
2005	137.5	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	80.0	41.5	36.2
2006	138.4	115.0	101.5	264.3	97.8	87.0	41.5	36.2
2007	138.4	115.0	101.5	264.2	97.8	87.0	41.5	36.2

Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari a former senior expert of the National Iranian oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320-390 billion barrels, and "As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate". Petroleum Intelligence Weekly reported that official confidential Kuwaiti documents estimate reserves of Kuwait were only 48 billion barrels, half as much as their reported 101 billion barrels. Essentially, the amount of oil reserves in the world is much lower than people think. The good news is that OPEC may have less clout in the future than they have had for the last 40 years.

Mexican Hat Dance

I’m sure that not many people in the U.S. realize that we get more oil from Mexico than Saudi Arabia. We are dependent on Mexico to supply us with 600 million barrels of oil per year. Without this supply, there would be shortages and much higher prices. Tijuana, we have a problem. Within five years, we will be getting ZERO barrels of oil per day from our neighbor to the south. Mexico has the distinguished honor of having a government more inept and short-sighted than our own. Hard to do.

Source: Perotcharts.com

Virtually all of the oil supplied from Mexico comes from the 2nd largest oil field in the world, Cantarell. It was discovered in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico in 1977. It is run by the state owned oil company, Pemex. It held 17 billion barrels of oil. The Mexican government took the oil revenues and funded their wish list of programs in the country. Pemex has provided 40% of all revenues for the state. The state became so dependent they had Pemex build a nitrogen injection project on top of the well to push the oil out faster. It worked. In 2004, the well was providing 2.5 million barrels per day. It is now in irreversible decline at a rate of 15% per year. By 2012, it will only be producing 500,000 barrels per day.

Mexico has ridden this pony hard. They have not done any serious exploration in the Gulf of Mexico in 30 years. A newly discovered deep water well takes 10 years and billions of investment to bring on line. There is no doubt that Mexico’s oil output will collapse in the next five years. They will not be capable of exporting any oil to the U.S. With the rest of the world having no spare capacity and demand higher than 2008, prices for gasoline in the U.S. will soar. In the meantime, we will ponder higher gas mileage requirements, not allow offshore drilling, and make no effort to convert our transportation fleet to natural gas. Congressmen will be outraged and indignant at the oil companies, when the writing was on the wall for a decade.

Crisis Part II

The flowchart below gives an extremely clear picture of what happened in the last year and what will happen in the next few years. The financial crisis and the energy crisis were intertwined and will continue to feed upon each other. Worldwide oil production peaked between 2005 and 2009. This, along with refinery shutdowns, hurricane related issues, and hedge fund speculation led to oil reaching $147 a barrel. This was the straw that broke the camels back and helped accelerate a downward spiral for consumers. The combination of plunging home values, retirement savings being cut in half and gas prices doubling led to the worst recession since the 1930’s. The dramatic worldwide slowing caused by American consumers not going to Malls reduced demand enough to make the speculators go running for the hills. Oil prices plummeted 76% in a couple months to $35 a barrel. Now we are about to enter phase two of this comedy of errors. Again, the clueless leaders of our country will be taken by surprise. They’ve learned nothing.

It may sound like sacrilege, but prices below $50 a barrel are dangerously low. The crash in gasoline prices to below $2.00 a gallon has led to demand in the U.S. rising 6% above the demand in September 2008. Our American twitter society has already forgotten the $4.00 a gallon prices. Hybrids are rotting on car dealership lots. Everything that has happened since the price collapse will contribute to Crisis Part 2:

OPEC cut supply by 4.2 million barrels per day from levels in September
Projects that were viable at $80 a barrel have been scrapped. Ethanol and Tar Sands are only profitable above this level. Natural gas wells are being capped as prices plunged from $13 to $4.
Worldwide rig counts have plunged from 3,500 to 2,700 in a matter of months.

Existing wells throughout the world continue to decline at ever increasing rates.
The Obama administration will restrict the expansion of coal powered plants, construction of new refineries and new drilling in the U.S.
The enormous stimulus being rolled out throughout the world will generate increased energy demand as supply remains restricted.
The banking crisis has resulted in no financing for energy projects that could relieve the long-term supply issues.
Energy companies have been laying off skilled workers as their business has plummeted. When demand resumes, these workers won’t be there.

Most people do not understand that all prices are set at the margin. There are 75 million houses in America. Only 4 to 5 million homes are sold per year. Therefore, 5% to 6% of the homes in the U.S. set the price for the other 70 million homes. This same concept applies to the last barrel of oil. When worldwide demand exceeded worldwide supply in late 2007 and early 2008, those last barrels of oil set the price. This explains why those last barrels of oil set the price above $100 a barrel. It wasn’t greedy speculators and evil oil companies.

Source: International Energy Agency

It is clear that supply has stayed in the range of 86 million barrels per day while demand has dropped to the range of 84 to 85 million barrels per day. If oil demand rises by 3%, demand will outstrip supply again.

Source: International Energy Agency

$200 Oil Will Arrive

When I was ten years old my parents told me to never touch our stainless steel sink and the electric light switch above the sink at the same time. I couldn’t resist. I tried it and got knocked on my ass. I never did it again. Americans are a different lot. Last year we got knocked on our ass by $4.00 gasoline. Instead of learning, we have sauntered back to the kitchen sink and we’re reaching up for the electric light switch. I wonder what is going to happen this time.

Americans are used to making tough choices. They have made choices between the Hummer H3 (13 mpg) and the Hummer H2 (8 mpg). They’ve made choices between a BMW 650i (16 mpg) and a Mercedes S600 (13 mpg). The coming energy crisis will lead to choices between food or fuel for many people. The coming crisis is as clear as the housing bubble. Anyone with half a brain could see that home prices would need to fall 30% to 50% to get back to equilibrium. Therefore, no one in Congress, Wall Street, or CNBC saw it coming. Total world oil supply is in a permanent decline. Oil demand will continue to rise. Only a half wit would argue that prices will not rise dramatically in the coming years. Turn on CNBC to get the half wit view of oil prices.

Now the bad news for Americans; we make up 4.3% of the world’s population and consume 26% of the world’s oil. Europe makes up 6.8% of the world’s population and consumes 11% of the world’s oil. After the oil shock of the 1970’s Europe decided to dramatically increase taxes on gasoline. The high cost of gasoline forced people to buy smaller fuel efficient cars. Today in Germany, their cars average 44 mpg, while in the U.S. our cars average 22 mpg. Whether Europe spent the taxes wisely is another question, but they did change behavior. No crude oil refineries have been built in the United States since 1976. During that time, hundreds of ethanol refineries have been built. It requires more energy to produce ethanol than ethanol produces. The United States has between 250 and 300 years of a coal supply. That is more than the amount of recoverable oil contained in the entire world. We will not utilize this resource because environmentalists say it is bad. Congressman Gary Miller describes the U.S. response to the 1970’s oil shock.

In 1973, America imported 30 percent of its crude oil needs. Today, that number has doubled to more than 70 percent. Gas prices are as high as they are now in part because we've had no comprehensive national energy policy for the past few decades.

The peak oil shock that is coming will affect the United States more dramatically than any other country. Are you prepared for $5.00 a gallon gasoline? We are 20 years too late to stop this from happening. The American way of kicking all tough issues down the road is about to kick us in the ass, and no one is preparing Americans for the result. Happy talk and confidence building exercises will not solve the problem. We are not in control of our destiny. Our supply is drying up. More drilling will not work. Higher fuel efficiency standards will not work. Congressmen and TV pundits will posture, expound, skewer oil executives on TV, and get red in the face, but they have failed the American public again. The social upheaval that could occur from fuel shortages and outrageous prices will be ugly. Most Americans live in suburbs far from work. Our food supply requires trucks to deliver to our stores. The U.S. military consumes 400,000 barrels of oil per day and spends $13 billion of your tax dollars per year to keep their machines functioning. War for oil becomes more likely in that environment. Is that a farfetched scenario?

world population growth graph

The population of the world will continue to rise. The United States has no control over that fact. Developing countries will grow more prosperous. People utilize more fossil fuels as they become more prosperous. $2,500 cars are now becoming available in China and India and the rest of Asia. In a Chinese car ownership survey, 96% of respondents said they paid cash for their cars. How un-American like. Imagine if GMAC could gain a foothold in China. More than 20,000 new cars per day are being sold to Chinese citizens who have never owned an automobile before. This is massive new demand being created for gasoline. China now has a middle class estimated at nearly 300 million people. 37% of people driving in China today did not know how to drive 3 years ago.

Oil will continue to be discovered, just not enough to keep up with demand. The pie chart below paints a disturbing picture. Only 30% of total oil reserves are light sweet crude. The other 70% is difficult and costly to bring to market. Few U.S. refineries can convert heavy crude into gasoline. Oil sands require massive amounts of water and natural gas to convert it into usable oil. The oil remaining to be discovered will be in deepwater wells. It takes at least 10 years to bring a deepwater well online. We are losing the race with time.

Source: Wikipedia

The only two people sounding the alarm have been Matt Simmons and T. Boone Pickens. Mr. Simmons warns that the best energy geologists and engineers are now retiring, with no one to take their place. The global oil and gas system infrastructure is rusting away and falling apart. The cost to rebuild our global energy infrastructure would be close to $100 trillion and would require 10 to 20 million workers. This would not be wasted money. Mr. Pickens argues that by investing $1 trillion to build wind facilities in the corridor from Texas to North Dakota we could produce 20% of the nation’s electricity by 2020. This would free up our vast natural gas resources to be used as fuel for truck fleets and ultimately automobiles. The ideas of both men would create jobs in America and make us less dependent on Middle East oil.

None of these ideas will avert $5 gasoline in our near future. They may avert $10 gasoline and potentially a resource instigated World War 3. The choice is ours.

http://theburningplatform.com/economy/wasting-a-good-crisis-result---200-oil#comments

Argentinean economist on the current meltdown.

He offers Argentina as an example of hyperinflation and we too can expect. Argentina has gone through THREE of these financial meltdowns.

His advice? Get your money OUT now while you still can. Buy gold, buy silver. Buy anything. Stock up on food.

Continue to watch American Idol and ignore at your own peril.

videos here

http://www.thegadflyblog.com/2009/04/financial-meltdown-not-crisis-with-love-from-argentina.html

April 4, 2009
The Jones Report

The State of New York Division of Cemeteries has sent out "Mass Fatality forms" to cemeteries in that state to collect data about their ability to deal with the high volume of casualties that would occur if their were a flu pandemic or other disaster.

//snip//
Along with other data, cemeterians were asked in this survey:

"Should a prolonged mass fatality disaster or pandemic flu occur in your community would your cemetery be able to provide temporary or permanent internment space for a significant number of disaster or flu deaths in additional to your current burial services?"

Cemetery owners were also asked to detail the business structure and capacity of their facilities, including proximity to roads, train lines and airfields. The Division of Cemeteries requested data to calculate the number of acres that could be made available "at 950 graves per acre."

It is clear that emergency and disaster forces are being mobilized at the state and federal level. There is no data to predict what disasters could come-- forces of nature, false-flag attacks, biological attacks/ flu outbreaks, quarantines etc. However, a pattern of data including news items, reports, photos and tips have all pointed to an incremental gearing up for a cataclysmic situation that includes mass casualties.

Whether it is half a million plastic coffin liners videotaped at a truck depot, or massive expansion at dozens of cemeteries across the country or FEMA and Homeland Security agents preparing for an avian bird flu outbreak, it is clear that government agencies are expecting something to happen and their agencies are expanding in accordance.

//Snip//

D.H. Williams reported in February, on an Indiana county municipal official who received detailed requests from FEMA, and the Department of Homeland Security in regards to locations for mass graves, preparations for regional refugees, preparations for economic collapse, and budget cuts under a GM collapse, as well as the locations of major installations, emergency assets, and more.

The official, speaking in this recording, says that he became concerned about the intentions of the FEMA and DHS officials after repeated meetings where scenarios were discussed that included a bird flu outbreak as well as fires, floods and earthquakes.

The authorities have warned in their white papers that United States could face rioting; financial collapse seems very possible; and now it is clear that preparations include widespread death, and emergency conditions. What do they see coming?

http://www.jonesreport.com/article/04_09/03cemetery.html

[The Advair that I take is on the list twice, both are true, I did not know that Advair made it worse...So is Spriva and without them I don’t breathe.....granny]

Adverse Medical Reactions:

The March 2009 posting includes 38 drug products with safety labeling changes to the following sections: BOXED WARNING, CONTRAINDICATIONS, WARNINGS, PRECAUTIONS, ADVERSE REACTIONS, PATIENT PACKAGE INSERT, and MEDICATION GUIDE.

The “Summary Page” provides a listing of drug names and safety labeling sections revised: http://www.fda.gov/medwatch/safety/2009/mar09_quickview.htm

The “Detailed View Page” identifies safety labeling sections and subsections revised along with a brief summary of new or modified safety information to the BOXED WARNING, CONTRAINDICATIONS, and/or WARNINGS sections:

http://www.fda.gov/medwatch/safety/2009/mar09.htm

The following 19 drugs had modifications to the BOXED WARNING, CONTRAINDICATIONS, and WARNINGS sections:

Epzicom, OsmoPrep, Raptiva, Sporanox, Trizivir, Visicol, Diabeta, Macrobid, Macrodantin, Rocephin, Theophylline, Tracleer, Advair, Altace, Axert, Cymbalta, Frova, Lexiscan, and Spiriva

You are encouraged to report all serious adverse events and product quality problems to FDA MedWatch at www.fda.gov/medwatch/report.htm

The State of New York Division of Cemeteries has sent out “Mass Fatality forms” to cemeteries in that state to collect data about their ability to deal with the high volume of casualties that would occur if their were a flu pandemic or other disaster. <<<

This appears to tie in with the National Terror alert that is in about post 6208, the jihadi have both bio-chem and nuclear weapons.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog?page=186

I am not sure where I got this link, but it is interesting and the Chlorine gas used, would work the same way and kill lots of folks.......

The link is open on my tool bar, so either got it from one of you or from something else that I was reading.

A Tale of Two Depressions<<<

Thanks for posting this.

Two Ways: IMF Sees Trillions in Toxic Debt

Terry Woo
Apr 07, 2009 8:40 am

Cost of Protecting Bonds Jumps

In the wake of a series of reports saying the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates toxic debt held by financial institutions could rise to $4 trillion, the cost of protecting bonds from default on European banks jumped.

According to Bloomberg, credit default swaps on the benchmark iTraxx Financial Index, which is linked to 25 European financial companies, rose for the first time in 4 days - up 5 basis points to 165 this morning in London. Bad assets in the US may rise to $3.1 trillion, up from the IMF’s January estimate of $2.2 trillion. Furthermore, the IMF may raise its estimate of toxic debt from Europe and Asia by another $900 billion.

Global financial institutions have suffered $1.3 trillion in losses since the beginning of the credit crisis. For more on the economy, see Professor Jack Lavery’s Housing Optimism Is a House of Cards.

source:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/tm-gdx-IMF/index/a/22064/from/yahoo

USA Today Quick Question

Does the Second Amendment give individuals the right to bear arms?

Yes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 96%

No
xx 3%

Undecided
x 1%

Total Votes
1,713,395

MY Quick Question
Should an elected representative reflect the will of their constituency?

>> Does the Second Amendment give individuals the right to bear arms? <<

Dittos on the YES !!

>>> Should an elected representative reflect the will of their constituency? <<<

ABSOLUTELY! Unfortunate that all but a very few forget that when they arrive in DC and start receiving the PAC money..