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Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?
Sky and Telescope Website ^ | April 24, 2008 | Ken Croswell

Posted on 05/01/2008 7:39:20 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets

First, the bad news: the inner solar system is unstable. Given enough time, Jupiter's gravity could yank Mercury out of its present orbit.

Two new computer simulations of long-term planetary motion — one by Jacques Laskar (Paris Observatory), the other by Konstantin Batygin and Gregory Laughlin (University of California, Santa Cruz) — have both reached the same disturbing conclusion.

Says Laughlin, "The solar system isn't as stable as we'd thought." Both teams have found that Jupiter's gravity can increase Mercury's orbital eccentricity over time. Mercury's path around the Sun is already nearly as elliptical as Pluto's. But Jupiter can make Mercury's orbit so out of round that it overlaps the path of Venus. A close encounter between them could send the innermost planet careening off wildly.

"Once Mercury crosses Venus's orbit," Laughlin says, "Mercury is in serious trouble."

So is Earth.

At that point, the simulations predict Mercury will suffer generally one of four fates: it crashes into the Sun, gets ejected from the solar system, it crashes into Venus, or — worst of all — crashes into Earth.

To call this catastrophic is a gross understatement. Such an impact would kill all life on our planet. Nothing would survive. By contrast, the asteroid that doomed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago was likely just 6 miles in diameter; Mercury is 3,032 miles across. The last time an object about that size hit the Earth, the resulting debris formed our Moon.

Think we'll escape the chaos by fleeing to Mars? Think again. Even Mars might not be safe. In one of the computer simulations, the Red Planet was tossed into the cold of interstellar space.

Now, the good news: there's only about a 1% chance that Mercury will go crazy before the Sun bloats into a red giant billions of years from now. "If you're an optimist," says Laughlin, "then you say the glass is 99 percent full."

Laskar, who discovered that Mercury could go wild back in 1994, will publish his paper in Icarus; Batygin (who's still an undergraduate) and Laughlin will publish theirs in The Astrophysical Journal.


TOPICS: Astronomy
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; doom; freepun; immanuelvelikovsky; jupiter; mercury; velikovsky; weareallgoingtodie
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Mercury as seen by Messenger on January 14, 2008, from about 17,000 miles away. Might this inner-solar-system body someday destroy all life on Earth? Perhaps

Personally, I blame Henri Poincaré. Typical French trouble maker. Off to bed. See you in the morning.

1 posted on 05/01/2008 7:39:20 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

I guess someone has to say it... Bush’s Fault!


2 posted on 05/01/2008 7:43:41 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

That tears it! I’m outta here!


3 posted on 05/01/2008 7:44:24 PM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Nobody panic....this guy will make another movie and save us all

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

4 posted on 05/01/2008 7:45:01 PM PDT by txroadkill (Liberals believe that the only oppressed people in Cuba are the terrorist in GitMo)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?

With my luck...

5 posted on 05/01/2008 7:46:14 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (Could pacifists exist if there weren't people brave enough to go to war for their right to exist?)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Mercury will suffer generally one of four fates: it crashes into the Sun, gets ejected from the solar system, it crashes into Venus, or — worst of all — crashes into Earth

Mercury's fate is not Hermetically sealed...

6 posted on 05/01/2008 7:46:18 PM PDT by mikrofon (Space BUMP)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?

Mercury to Earth:


7 posted on 05/01/2008 7:47:21 PM PDT by humblegunner (Che is Gay)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

What difference does it make? WE’re all gonna be dead from global warming way before that happens.


8 posted on 05/01/2008 7:49:06 PM PDT by mamelukesabre (Quantum materiae materietur marmota monax si marmota monax materiam possit materiari?)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Good news is if you change the type of car you drive, buy new toxic lightbulbs, and forgo any further use of toilet paper, the world AS WE KNOW IT can remain Mercury-impact free IN OUR LIFETIME!!!


9 posted on 05/01/2008 7:49:17 PM PDT by weegee (Vote Obama 2008 for a bitter America.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Says Laughlin, "The solar system isn't as stable as we'd thought." Both teams have found that Jupiter's gravity can increase Mercury's orbital eccentricity over time. Mercury's path around the Sun is already nearly as elliptical as Pluto's. But Jupiter can make Mercury's orbit so out of round that it overlaps the path of Venus. A close encounter between them could send the innermost planet careening off wildly.

If AlGore is to be proclaimed our true God, can we all be saved from this cataclysmic event if we worship him enough?

10 posted on 05/01/2008 7:51:04 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: mamelukesabre

Where is the ACLU to tell Mercury that Earth is a sovereign planet???


11 posted on 05/01/2008 7:51:35 PM PDT by weegee (Vote Obama 2008 for a bitter America.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Will this event cause global warming or cooling?


12 posted on 05/01/2008 7:51:48 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (If you don't want people to get your goat, don't tell them where it's tied.)
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To: EGPWS

Why not go for “first strike” AGAINST Mercury?


13 posted on 05/01/2008 7:52:29 PM PDT by weegee (Vote Obama 2008 for a bitter America.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

14 posted on 05/01/2008 7:52:57 PM PDT by 50cal Smokepole (El Conservo Tribal Name: Fishes with Dynamite)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

It couldn’t happen soon enough!

Just lean into it folks!!


15 posted on 05/01/2008 7:53:14 PM PDT by KoRn (CTHULHU '08 - I won't settle for a lesser evil any longer!)
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To: Inyo-Mono

Warming followed by cooling. Look for good opportunities to enjoy your weekend...


16 posted on 05/01/2008 7:53:14 PM PDT by weegee (Vote Obama 2008 for a bitter America.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

This all is a moot point, because Ted Turner said we’d all be gone because we turned to cannibalism by 2050. /sarc


17 posted on 05/01/2008 7:54:28 PM PDT by NordP ((Rev Wright ) - Hey, Obama... Looks like YOUR "turrr-key" has come hoooome to ROOOOST!)
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To: weegee

Interesting. Using mercury lightbulbs will ward off the planet mercury?


18 posted on 05/01/2008 7:54:30 PM PDT by mamelukesabre (Quantum materiae materietur marmota monax si marmota monax materiam possit materiari?)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Algore will save us!


19 posted on 05/01/2008 7:54:32 PM PDT by b4its2late (Ignorance allows liberalism to prosper.)
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To: weegee
Why not go for “first strike” AGAINST Mercury?

I never thought of that.

I guess I'm just too passive by nature. ~snort

20 posted on 05/01/2008 7:54:49 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: weegee
Good news is if you change the type of car you drive, buy new toxic lightbulbs, and forgo any further use of toilet paper, the world AS WE KNOW IT can remain Mercury-impact free IN OUR LIFETIME!!!

Personally, I'm scrambling to "CHANGE" my lifestyle to help make it happen. /SARCASM!

21 posted on 05/01/2008 7:59:00 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?

I think he already has...

22 posted on 05/01/2008 8:01:15 PM PDT by Onelifetogive (This is an Obama-nation!)
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To: b4its2late
Algore will save us!

You do realize that in the morning, if your lucky, you are going to awake from your dreams, right? ; )

23 posted on 05/01/2008 8:01:46 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: NordP
This all is a moot point, because Ted Turner said we’d all be gone because we turned to cannibalism by 2050. /sarc

In the year, 2049
You'll do anything to stay alive
Even barbeque your bride
In 2049

Duck and Run!

24 posted on 05/01/2008 8:04:01 PM PDT by Grizzled Bear ("Does not play well with others.")
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Great, Velikovsky was right...


25 posted on 05/01/2008 8:05:29 PM PDT by MediaMole
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

October 22nd. ... around tea time ....


26 posted on 05/01/2008 8:05:32 PM PDT by SkyDancer ("Great Danger Lies In The Notion That We Can Reason With Evil")
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets; All

One must ask: ‘What about Uranus?’


27 posted on 05/01/2008 8:06:40 PM PDT by notdownwidems (Shellback, pollywogs! 1980)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?

Only if you drop that compact flourescent light bulb while forced to replace your incandescent bulbs. Then watch out!!! All heck is going to break out!!!

-PJ

28 posted on 05/01/2008 8:08:03 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (Repeal the 17th amendment -- it's the "Fairness Doctrine" for Congress!)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Quick! Where can I buy Mercury credits?


29 posted on 05/01/2008 8:12:43 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: mnehrling
I guess someone has to say it... Bush’s Fault!

Nah. He'll just build another agency like Department of Mercury Security and hire TSA types to keep an eye on the planet.

Code Red for the "Red Planet" will be appropriate.

30 posted on 05/01/2008 8:14:44 PM PDT by Cobra64 (www.BulletBras.net)
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To: EGPWS
Photobucket

"Mercury poisoning?!"


31 posted on 05/01/2008 8:17:46 PM PDT by Cobra64 (www.BulletBras.net)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

That thar article has a wee bit of conjecture in it...


32 posted on 05/01/2008 8:22:51 PM PDT by Fichori (Truth is one of those non-negotiable facts of life that most people cannot stand.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
"Once Mercury crosses Venus's orbit," Laughlin says, "Mercury is in serious trouble."

So is Earth.

Oh no! What about Uranus?

33 posted on 05/01/2008 8:26:00 PM PDT by Grizzled Bear ("Does not play well with others.")
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To: notdownwidems

“What about myanus?”


34 posted on 05/01/2008 8:29:59 PM PDT by Kimmers
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
I blame Al Gore and his carbon footprint. It is affecting solar stabilization. He needs to lose a little weight and learn how to walk quietly.
35 posted on 05/01/2008 8:45:01 PM PDT by jonrick46
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Oh brother.


36 posted on 05/01/2008 9:11:57 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Ted Kennedy - Codename -> "Bobber")
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To: VeniVidiVici
Mercury Poisoning Lyrics
Maybe they think I'm a pet Well I've got all the diseases I'm breaking out in sweat, you bet, CHORUS I got, Mercury poisoning It's fatal and it don't get better I got, Mercury poisoning The best kept secret in the we—est, hey the we—est The boys and me are getting real well known around town But every time we try to spread the action Someone always brings it down, down I ate the orange and I don't feel well For them it's inconvenience for me it's hell
The geriatric staff think we're freaks
They couldn't sell kebabs to the Greeks, the geeks
Inaction speaks, and

CHORUS

BRIDGE Is this a Russian conspiracy, no it's just idiocy Is this a Chinese burn I gotta dinosaur for a representative It's got a small brain and refuses to learn Their promotion's so lame

37 posted on 05/01/2008 9:49:01 PM PDT by JimC214
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
...there's only about a 1% chance that Mercury will go crazy before the Sun bloats into a red giant billions of years from now.

IOW, about the same odds of everyone on the planet Earth winning the lotto simultaneously.

38 posted on 05/01/2008 10:18:20 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
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To: PeaceBeWithYou
IOW, about the same odds [,100 to 1, against Mercury's orbit becoming unstable as the odds] of everyone on the planet Earth winning the lotto simultaneously.

Not at all. The odds against six billion people (choosing independently and randomly) picking the same, say six out of 80 numbers, and then having those numbers selected in a random drawing is less than one with fifty-million zeros after it, effectively impossible. (Assuming you grant everyone one entry.) One hundred to one against events occur every day. Would you get on an airplane that had a one in a hundred chance of crashing?

If it does occur, it will be millions of years in the future. The process would be slow, but inexoriable. Each Mercurial year, Mercury's orbit would become a little more enlongated. Assuming Earth is inhabited by a technologically advanced civilization at that time, they would see it coming millions of years in advance.

39 posted on 05/02/2008 4:33:12 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The women got the vote and the Nation got Harding.)
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To: EGPWS

If we change our cars, and lightbulbs, and give up toilet paper, etc. the world as we know it IS changed for the worse.

Moving into a cave won’t improve “the world” but it’ll regress us to living like cavemen or those in the third world. And that’ll be a change for the worse.

We have it too good. Better live a little less well off, because well it’s shameful to be better off in America.


40 posted on 05/02/2008 8:13:55 AM PDT by weegee (Vote Obama 2008 for a bitter America.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

100 to 1 stretched over 7.5 billion years is very long odds.


41 posted on 05/02/2008 8:48:24 AM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
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To: PeaceBeWithYou

Still a lot better than 1 with 50 million zeros.

I think perhaps you misapprehend. Although not explicitly stated there is no chance whatsoever that we will go to bed some evening and see Mercury looming next to the moon. If Mercury becomes unstable, the process will take literally millions of years. If it were to happen and we maintain our current level of technology, we will see it coming a million years before it happens.

As of today, no one can say for certain whether or not it will ever occur.


42 posted on 05/02/2008 10:12:04 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The women got the vote and the Nation got Harding.)
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To: 75thOVI; agrace; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; ...
Note: this topic is from May 1, 2008. Thanks Lonesome in Massachussets.
There may have been a topic about this (hard to believe, I know) that was pinged, but regardless, pingin' this one.
 
Catastrophism
 
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic · subscribe ·
 

43 posted on 05/14/2011 9:27:02 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Thanks Cincinna for this link -- http://www.friendsofitamar.org)
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Tired of the way the left runs our country?
Click the Pic

DONATE!

44 posted on 05/14/2011 9:39:01 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: SunkenCiv
This flies in the face of the claim which Robert Bass made about the Titus/Bode law which describes the present planetary system as being a/the solution to a dynamical relaxation problem. Bass is one of America's better mathematicians and his findings have been used to argue against people claiming that our system could not have gone from a Velikovskian system to its present formation in less than some much larger space of time. Bass viewed this result as his opus magnus in life and had been very careful in working it out.

All of that is before you get to any sort of an idea about electricity having anything to do with orbits or stability of course...

45 posted on 05/14/2011 3:06:14 PM PDT by wendy1946
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To: wendy1946

That purported law is really just a mnemonic, to help memorize the intervals.

s’more about TBL, from the late TVF:

Where It Began – the Titius-Bode Law of Planetary Spacing
http://metaresearch.org/publications/bulletin/2006issues/1215/Mrb06dp4.asp

The Original Solar System
http://metaresearch.org/solar%20system/origins/original-solar-system.asp


46 posted on 05/14/2011 9:47:04 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Thanks Cincinna for this link -- http://www.friendsofitamar.org)
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To: SunkenCiv

I will admit that a collision with Mercury would do the job thoroughly, though if humanity is still around in a few billion years it is quite possible we will have the ability to do something about it.


47 posted on 05/15/2011 12:36:58 AM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (Liberty and Union, Now and Forever, One and Inseparable -- Daniel Webster)
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To: SunkenCiv

Thanks, I wasn’t aware of those two items on metaresearch.


48 posted on 05/15/2011 6:32:30 AM PDT by wendy1946
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To: wendy1946

My pleasure. OTOH, TVF postulated an exploding planet for the K-T extinction impact events, as well as another one he’d postulated (hence his need for a revised EPH), because he remained convinced that Jupiter would clean the inner Solar System of all debris from his exploding planets within 10 million years. That of course should have suggested to him that he may have been mistaken about the source of (all, not just some) inner Solar System debris, but he was so sure he was on the right track that he couldn’t come to that conclusion.


49 posted on 05/15/2011 7:21:17 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Thanks Cincinna for this link -- http://www.friendsofitamar.org)
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla

Yeah, I’m not going to sweat it too much. Within one billion years the Earth will likely make contact (euphemism) with a plus-one-mile impactor, basically a piece of debris — and not just once, more than sixty times. And probably at least eight of those will be well over a mile in diameter.


50 posted on 05/15/2011 7:24:52 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Thanks Cincinna for this link -- http://www.friendsofitamar.org)
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