Skip to comments.(Vanity) Great Hoax from Little Acorns Grow, or, Are The Polls Nuts?
Posted on 10/11/2008 4:14:43 PM PDT by grey_whiskers
An theme which has come up in the past week is "Democrat Landslide". The first I recall seeing of this was the Democrat
flack strategist David Paul Hume, in the Politico.
In his piece, he suggested that if Obama were to sweep Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, then he would have a landslide. And that would indicate that Obama would take "Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, ...Iowa...[and] Missouri."
OK, that's fair. So I propose a counterexample. If McCain were to take Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would have a landslide, which would indicate he would take Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
"But, but...," you sputter, "that's ridiculous." No more ridiculous than the supposed justification for all of this talk of a landslide. The supposed justification being the polls, which show a consistent and steady March in Obama's favor.
There's just one problem with the polls. Are they accurate? Let's look at one website, Real Clear Politics. I noted with interest that West Virginia is now marked as a battleground state. Run for the hills, all is lost, ....NOT.
Drilling down into this supposed battleground, we find that the RCP average has McCain up by merely 2.2 points, well within the margin of error. But when you look at the individual polls, something very important comes up.
There is only one poll in this state which gives Obama the lead...and it shows him up by EIGHT POINTS!!!
Drilling into this poll, what do you find in the internals? 55% Democrat, 35% Republican!
So one pollster has effectively spotted Obama a TWENTY-POINT LEAD. And this, when combining the raw Mc-Cain/Obama percent, without considering the internals, is enough to push West Virginia into the "swing state" column.
Incidentally -- this news SHOULD be heartening. If Obama is only up by eight, even when spotted at 20% Dem advantage, we may actually be talking a McCain LANDSLIDE.
It should be the highest priority for the GOP to start digging into the polls, and quoting the obviously rigged internals. This means McCain, Palin, the House and Senate candidates, and ALL the talking heads on TV and the radio, as well as the conservative blogosphere.
Make the CROOKED POLLS the issue, and ask why the Democrats need to lie so shamelessles. Demand to know why the press -- the self appointed guarantors of our freedoms and of our right to know -- are so incurious.
(Or, quote the exact same numbers as a pro-McCain margin. Then, when you are challenged, you can say -- oops, I was oversampling Republicans by 20 points, not Democrats.)
And this leads to another point. Why are the pollsters feeling justified in being so blatant about this? Recall that the last two Presidential elections were basically neck-and-neck in terms of turnout. Is it really true that approximately 10 percent of the electorate has suddenly and irrevocably changed their party affiliation?
One reason that the pollsters might be tempted to think so is that there *have* in fact been a rash of new Democrat registrations lately (as well as new contributions). The registrations take the form of the Dallas Cowboys starting lineup registering to vote in Nevada; more than the entire voting population registering to vote in Indiana; and over a quarter of a million people registering to vote in Philadelphia.
Yes, I'm talking ACORN. Let us start demanding action NOW: not after the election has been stolen. (And don't forget the DEMOCRAT secretary of state in the key swing state of Ohio refusing to validate voter registrations. If this is not disenfranchisement by diluting the vote, what is?!! Where are the lawyers from the 2000 Florida election?)
Voter fraud writ large -- it is as blatant as the Kennedy-Johnson theft of the White House.
Instead of whining, let us take action.
Make this voter fraud the incessant, constant drumbeat of every talking head, every GOP candidate, up to and including McCain and Palin. Let us tie this millstone around the Democrats' necks forever, so that it becomes a byword, part of the language, as Watergate has.
And a proposal, let us create a groundswell and a DEMAND for this election, just as it was done in Iraq.
When you vote, your finger is dipped in indelible ink, to be supplied by Republicans. We all know the Democrats would like invisible ink, or better yet, disappearing ink.
No voter intimidation, since nobody even has to give their name. If someone asks if you've voted, you give them the finger. The Democrats ought to like that -- it's what they've been doing to honest elections and honest voters for YEARS.
Remember: Voter fraud is EVERYONE'S business. Let's take the thievery out of US elections, and see how bad the Democrats lose when they aren't allowed to cheat.
Please watch this video and then send this link on McCain’s Web page!
Also, call your GOP Congressional and Campaign offices. Tell them what you are sending them — then send them the link!
Also, send them the “Barack Obama and the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis” article. (Web search it. It’s on AmericanThinker.com)
Do it ASAP. Call the Campaign offices tonight!
By the way, does anyone remember this article?
I'll bet dollars to donuts that the rigged polls and ACORN surge are part of the game plan.
Good stuff, g_w.
I think you are right. Frankly, I think the polls are being systematically cooked in the important states. Case in point, the latest SUSA poll in PA, which has Obama up 55%-40%. The Party affiliation breakdown was 50% D to 39% R, which isn’t right for PA. Obama is NOT up by 15 in PA, regardless of what this poll says. I just spent the past four days in central PA, all the way up and down from the State College area to the Maryland border, and Obama would have to have a much larger level of visible support in these areas to have that wide of a lead.
If Obama is so far ahead why is he doing 5 campaign rallies between PA and IL?
An Ohio judge sided with the Ohio SOS about validating the votes. Ridiculous, isn’t it? I think we should push for no more early voting and the ink dip. That would cut out 95% of the fraud. Also we should push for no absentee voting except people working overseas and military. Also registering by the local election commission only like it used to be.
You would think that the Obama people would be a little concerned that all of the RA-RA for Obama might have the affect of actually suppressing there own vote. I know that it is counter intuitive but all of this effort to suppress the Republican vote might have the opposite outcome
Another thing, a lot of Hillary supporters have went to the McCain/Palin camp. The media is in denial about this but it is real. So McCain is getting democrat voters that Bush didn’t get. Thats got to add a few percentage points to McCain.
I like the ink dunk idea.
My guess is we will know by about 7 who is going to win. If Indiana isn’t called at 6:05 as usual followed closely by KY then McCain is definitely in trouble. If in addition he loses NH which he owns and VA early then it is probably over. If he wins NH and holds VA and it is close in NY or MA or if Bambi loses PA, and IN and KY stay true to form then Bambi is in trouble.
I don’t think the national polls suggest a landslide even if they’re accurate. Obama is barely over 50 percent. Maybe that’d be a landslide compared to Clinton.
>>> Drilling into this poll, what do you find in the internals? 55% Democrat, 35% Republican! So one pollster has effectively spotted Obama a TWENTY-POINT LEAD
Hard to know what to make of this fellow’s analysis since he makes so much of West Virginia’s numbers. As I understand it, WVa DOES have about a 2 to 1 democrat over republican voter registration base. Do people think every state has to be analyzed on the basis of a 50-50 split?
Democrat governor, 2 dem senators, 3 or 4 dem congressmen to one republican, most if not all state officers are dem, etc.
I really wouldn’t expect WVa to go for Obama but this isn’t the argument to say it won’t. Sloppy analysis.
And if you look, you can find similar discrepancies in other polls -- e.g. the Washington Post-ABC News Poll which had Obama up by 9% nationally sampled 52% Democrats and 38% Republicans. That is inconsistent with the most recent election results nationwide at the Presidential level.
Purple Fingers is the only solution. If they want to vote twice, they have to cut one finger off!
Those 5 PA and IL visits are all this weekend. At least one was in Philly. I think it is rather telling.
Well I can say that outside of Cook county and East St. Louis IL could be ruff for “The One” but I still would have a hard time believing he could be in trouble in IL overall.
However, it does make you go hummm.
I’ve noticed the folks at CNN and MSNBC have been tempering their Obama mania with comments such as “we really don’t know what’s going to happen,” and “the undecideds could all go to McCain in the end.”
In other words, they need to cover themselves in case McCain wins. As near to confessing to fraudulent reporting as they dare to get, but very revealing nonetheless.
The GOP will be all over this it will be on a fast track of appeal...if the whole 6th doesn’t take it up then the USSC will step in fast.........watch the adults take charge and not the thieves...BHO will not steal this election...
Just found your post. Great work! You and I are indeed thinking alike.
As I posted here, I think Obama, the pollsters, the MSM and ACORN are actually trying to incite riots after Obama loses in a landslide.
Why? They'll use the riots either to try to take over the government via violence like Obama's cousin Odinga did in Kenya (with Obama's help, BTW), or at the very least to plant the notion that, regardless of the margin of victory, McCain stole the election.
This will allow them to say: "Hey, all the pre-election polls showed Obama winning in a landslide! How can all the polls be wrong? McCain stole the election! The McCain administration is illegitimate and without mandate!" -- just like they did to Bush in 2000.
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