Posted on 10/24/2010 5:21:38 PM PDT by dagogo redux
I have a suspicion about polls that tighten as an election gets closer. I'd like to pose it as a theory, and hope that those with more knowledge or more insight than I have can give their input.
Back Story: Polls might tighten as an election draws closer for a number of reasons, but it seems to me that they ALWAYS tighten, or seem to. It would make sense as well that polls might draw further apart as election day nears - in fact, this often makes much more sense, but I seldom recall it happening.
Reasons polls might tighten: The underdog puts in more effort or more money; People like to side with the underdog in our society; People initially react with their gut, but reach different conclusions with more thought.
Reasons polls might simply SEEM to tighten: The main one in our current election - the impact the liberal media hopes to gain on voter turnout.
But then I see the same phenomenon on less liberal news organizations like Fox. Over and over I note the glee and gusto as announcers talk of races tightening for liberals and incumbants this season.
The Theory: The media, independent of political slant, welcomes the drama of a close race because it draws in more audience, improving the bottom line. In other words, they don't care so much who wins, or what direction our country might go in as a result of it, because a tight race, like a close game in sports, draws more audience.
Any thoughts?
It’s media.
They write now not based on anything but what they feel will bring them the most money.
Truth doesn’t get in their way even a jot.
So, if they can get you glued to the tube, you’ll thank THE MEDIA for letting you know ‘the truth.’
Besides, either way, the media wins.
Especially if they can ‘create’ the story.
the media....they know the voters won’t back a loser, so they have to report tightening.
Polls tighten immediately before an election because campaigns aim to peak on election day and the news media traditionally applies a blackout period against negative stories. In effect, both sides more or less reach their inherent strength on election day.
The polls always get close before the election. Never forget there to insider polls that we never see.
As in my state (WA) which is 100% mail in voting, we have had our voter pamphlets and ballots for about a week and are starting to complete the ballot.
My observation is that polls wildly different from one another start to narrow.
Maybe, in this case, Old Media is hedging on the dems ability to steal elections with fraudulent early-voting ballots.
Thanks, everyone. Sounds like folks are split as to the main reason for this phenomenon - media profits vs underlying realities in the electorate.
That second reason, however, is still not satisfying to me: the huge margins of the conservative movement are now fading in many poles, yet there seems to be no loss of enthusiasm that I discern in people, and Obama’s numbers and the opinions of his agenda seem to sink each week. It just doesn’t fit. And why would polls necessarily tend to narrow no matter what?
Can anyone explain this?
They tighten because the undecideds get smaller. On election day there are zero undecided votes.
I would just love to know how anybody with a heartbeat could be undecided 2 weeks out?That just doesnt make any sense to me.
My theory is that losing candidates supporters get classified as more likely to vote closer to the election. This due to fear and anger from the losing side that grows as it settles in the other side is winning. Early on, these voters are less interested and less likely to vote in polling surveyors’ eyes.
Part of the blame lies on “independent” voters. These people seem to think that being independent means they are noble and thoughtful, but really they have no strong convictions. They’re also usually too lazy and/or uninterested to inform themselves about the races until just before the election. Then, in the last few weeks, these indies start making up their minds, usually based on an emotional reaction to some ad or news story, and this tends to have a fairly dramatic effect on the polls.
“The Theory: The media, independent of political slant, welcomes the drama of a close race because it draws in more audience, improving the bottom line. In other words, they don’t care so much who wins, or what direction our country might go in as a result of it, because a tight race, like a close game in sports, draws more audience.
Any thoughts?”
I’m not sure if they always tighten but I am sure that the press will highlight all those races where the story is more dramatic.
That then might lead to selective polling. Polsters know that polls that widen or, worse, remain the same, aren’t worth publishing. Hence if they are sampling an area and the previous result was 52/42% with 500 sampled to get an ROE of 3% then if they’ve sampled 200 people, the poll is running 53/41% with an ROE of 5%, they’ll stop polling and turn their attention to other more interesting races. Only the interesting races get a full poll.
Polls LIE.
They manipulate samples. They manipulate the questions. They they monkey with what day of the week pools are conducted.
Polls are not made to reflect opinion - they are made to shape it.
Great thoughts, everyone. These ideas, especially this last one, make a lot of sense to me. Looks like many factors behind it, and few are any more sinister than I already thought.
May we sweep the field in 9 days!
Well, I posted my summary-to-this-minute statement while you were posting yours: I’m afraid what you say may be true, which then leads me to ask why even Fox seems to report the polls tightening in every election.
Not that Fox is pure as the wind-driven snow, but you’d thing they were a bit better than the rest. (Or should that be “wind-drivel show”?)
I have thought of this as well. And further to your point, there have been some races that this affects the Intrade results on, and it is a good way to make money on your supposition. Basically, where you know this is happening, put money down on the winner and the difference in percentage between the made-up poll results and the intrade value is margin in your pocket. But this assumes you’re right. If you’re wrong, you just put money down where your mouth is and lost. It’s almost worth it, either way, because you will KNOW. Best of luck.
You ever hear Hannity's Man on the Street interviews? I'd like to know how anybody with a heartbeat doesn't know the name of the Vice President.
Those idiots vote democratYou just cant fix stupid.
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